601 Bethpage Dr · Red Oak, TX
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
- —
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- —
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- —
Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- —
Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
- —
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- —
Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
- —
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- —
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +11.7/15.0
- Cash flow +10.2/30.0
- Schools +4.2/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- 1% rule +3.8/10.0
- Livability +3.5/5.0
- Rent growth +3.2/5.0
- DSCR +2.9/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$320,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Oakmont Park offers beautiful new single-family homes built by K. Hovnanian Homes. In charming Red Oak, enjoy convenient access to I-35E and all the activities around Dallas. This expansive home offers a welcoming 8 ft front door and stunning wood-looking flooring. Spacious great room and dining area with room to entertain! Stunning kitchen boasts quartz counters, white shaker style cabinets, and GE stainless steel appliances. Secluded owner's suite with refreshing bath features an oversized shower and dual sinks. Walk-in closets in all bedrooms makes storage a breeze. Shady covered patio for outdoor fun. Smart home features! $23,000 in upgrades included.
Key facts
- 6,011 sq ft lot
- 2 garage spots
- Built 2023
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (10.0% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (11.7% below list).
- Recommended offer: $283k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.1% in Red Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 69/100 on livability (#435 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
- Red Oak ISD (suburban): math 40% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #384 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Eastridge El (math 43% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 510 students, 62% FRL); Red Oak Middle (math 38% / reading 32%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 1,546 students, 63% FRL); Red Oak H S (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D+, #495 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 2,160 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 42% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 708 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.88% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.61%
- Cash-on-cash
- -2.43%
- DSCR
- 0.89
- GRM
- 9.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $353,070
- List price
- $320,000
- Delta
- -9.37%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 414 Hazeltine Rd | 0.18mi | 4/3.0 | 2,185 (+6%) | 1mo | $370,000 | $169 | 81 |
| 638 Hazeltine Rd | 0.32mi | 4/3.0 | 2,116 (+2%) | 1mo | $345,000 | $163 | 80 |
| 531 Cherry Hills Rd | 0.28mi | 4/2.0 | 2,076 (+0%) | 10mo | $355,000 | $171 | 74 |
| 618 Congressional Ave | 0.30mi | 4/3.0 | 2,178 (+6%) | 6mo | $345,000 | $158 | 71 |
| 505 Hazeltine Rd | 0.33mi | 4/3.5 | 2,185 (+6%) | 3mo | $355,000 | $162 | 70 |
| 645 Olympic Way | 0.21mi | 4/3.0 | 2,218 (+7%) | 11mo | $349,900 | $158 | 68 |
| 624 Hazeltine Rd | 0.29mi | 4/3.0 | 2,235 (+8%) | 5mo | $350,000 | $157 | 68 |
| 708 Winged Foot Dr | 0.30mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,962 (-5%) | 3mo | $349,900 | $178 | 66 |
| 608 Congressional Ave | 0.34mi | 4/2.0 | 2,170 (+5%) | 12mo | $349,000 | $161 | 62 |
| 217 Watson St | 0.48mi | 4/2.0 | 2,242 (+9%) | 0mo | $350,000 | $156 | 60 |
| 208 Hitching Post Rd | 0.56mi | 4/2.0 | 2,208 (+7%) | 2mo | $350,000 | $159 | 57 |
| 1008 N State Highway 342 | 0.55mi | 4/2.5 | 2,331 (+13%) | 4mo | $625,000 | $268 | 47 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 2.99% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -20.3%
- Equity multiple
- 0.29×
- Total profit
- $-63,259
- Equity at exit
- $47,713
- IRR
- -13.2%
- Equity multiple
- 0.23×
- Total profit
- $-69,386
- Equity at exit
- $27,668
Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 6 active · 8 under contract
- Months of supply
- 3.3 mo (31%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $357,488 ($170/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 64 d
- This list price
- lowest-priced of the active set
- ARV vs active asking
- +0.4% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 75154
- Home prices YoY
- -18.5%
- Rents YoY
- 3.0%
- Active inventory
- 708
- Price-to-rent
- 9.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,826 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,678
- Tax from tax record
- −$586 /mo · $7,028/yr
- Insurance
- −$133
- HOA
- −$17
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$594
- Net cashflow
- $-181
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $0 | -5% $-91 | +0% $-181 | +5% $-272 | +10% $-362 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-405 | -5% $-293 | +0% $-181 | +5% $-70 | +10% $42 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-20 | -0.5pp $-100 | base $-181 | +0.5pp $-264 | +1.0pp $-349 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $80,000
- Closing costs
- $9,600
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 14 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 631 Southern Hills Dr Red Oak, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2496 | $3,000 | $1.20 | 4d | 1 | 0.16mi |
| 656 Bethpage Dr Red Oak, TX | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2600 | $3,200 | $1.23 | 46d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 628 Cherry Hill Rd Red Oak, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1949 | $2,495 | $1.28 | 0d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 628 Cherry Hill Rd Red Oak, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1818 | $2,550 | $1.40 | 19d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 545 Hazeltine Rd Red Oak, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2126 | $2,899 | $1.36 | 1d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 545 Hazeltine Rd Red Oak, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2126 | $2,899 | $1.36 | 59d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 225 Cotton View Ln Red Oak, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2000 | $2,299 | $1.15 | 0d | 1 | 0.38mi |
| 220 Camden St Red Oak, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1998 | $2,950 | $1.48 | 93d | 1 | 0.52mi |
| 313 Quail Run Rd Red Oak, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2124 | $2,314 | $1.09 | 70d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 306 Quail Run Rd Red Oak, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1637 | $1,995 | $1.22 | 73d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 102 Whipperwill Way Red Oak, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2003 | $2,495 | $1.25 | 70d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 103 Hollow Tree Dr Red Oak, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1806 | $2,249 | $1.25 | 73d | 1 | 1.48mi |
| 101 Hollow Tree Dr Red Oak, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2068 | $2,400 | $1.16 | 68d | 1 | 1.49mi |
| 112 Clover Leaf Ln Red Oak, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1646 | $2,189 | $1.33 | 71d | 1 | 1.50mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Short sale special listing conditionListing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA and VA
- HOA & community
- Mandatory HOA with annual fee of $200 (management fees included)
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener2 covered parking spaces
- Utilities
- City waterCity sewerCable available
- Home design
- Single-family residenceOne-storyInterior lot in a subdivision2023 construction
- Construction
- Brick exteriorShingle roofSlab foundation
- Exterior features
- Covered porch(es)Private yardSprinkler systemBack yard wood fencing
Interior
- Kitchen
- Granite countertopsKitchen islandWalk-in pantryWater line to refrigeratorDishwasherGas rangeMicrowavePlumbed for gas in kitchenDisposal
- Bedrooms
- Primary bedroom on main level with dual sinks, garden tub, separate shower, ensuite bath and walk-in closetThree additional bedrooms on main level; two have walk-in closets and one has an ensuite bath
- Flooring
- LaminateTile
- Bathrooms
- Three full bathroomsPrimary bath with dual sinks, garden tub, separate shower and solid surface countersAdditional ensuite bathrooms with solid surface counters
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (natural gas)Central airCeiling fansElectric cooling components
- Interior features
- Open floorplanKitchen islandPantryWalk-in closetsGranite countersCable TV availableHigh speed internet available
- Laundry & utility
- Separate utility room
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $320,000 Active 100 DOM
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2026-08-06days on market $320,000 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $320,000 Active 97 DOM
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2026-08-04days on market $320,000 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $320,000 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-08-01price $320,000 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $330,000 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $330,000 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $330,000 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $330,000 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $330,000 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $330,000 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $330,000 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $330,000 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $330,000 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $330,000 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $330,000 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $330,000 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $330,000 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $330,000 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $330,000 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $330,000 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $330,000 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $330,000 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-07-09pricedays on market $330,000 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $345,000 Active 68 DOM
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2026-07-06days on market $345,000 Active 67 DOM
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2026-07-06days on market $345,000 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $345,000 Active 65 DOM
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2026-07-03days on market $345,000 Active 64 DOM
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2026-07-02days on market $345,000 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $345,000 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $345,000 Active 61 DOM
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2026-06-29days on market $345,000 Active 60 DOM
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2026-06-28days on market $345,000 Active 59 DOM
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2026-06-27days on market $345,000 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-06-26days on market $345,000 Active 57 DOM
-
2026-06-24days on market $345,000 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $345,000 Active 53 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $345,000 Active 52 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $345,000 Active 49 DOM
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2026-06-17days on market $345,000 Active 48 DOM
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2026-06-16days on market $345,000 Active 47 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $345,000 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $345,000 Active 44 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $345,000 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $345,000 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $345,000 Active 39 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $345,000 Active 38 DOM
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2026-06-04days on market $345,000 Active 35 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $7,028 · $586/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $7,028 · $586/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $33,917
- − Mortgage interest
- −$17,925
- − Property taxes
- −$7,028
- − Insurance
- −$1,600
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,713
- − Management
- −$2,713
- − HOA
- −$204
- − Depreciation
- −$9,309
- Taxable loss
- −$7,576
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,818
- After-tax cash flow
- $-357/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos
This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern kitchen, two bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping maintenance to further enhance its value.
Value-add opportunities
- Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting to potential buyers. ↑
- Rental Trim and prune the landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more renters and make the home more appealing. ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Red Oak ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4836660
- Math proficiency
- 40% ▼ -12.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 36% ▼ -9.00%
- Median HH income
- $71,110
- Composite
- 34.88/100
- National rank
- #5084
- State rank
- #384 of 826 in TX
Livability — Red Oak
- Score
- 69/100
- State rank
- #435
- US rank
- #8931
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Red Oak, TX
- County
- Ellis County · 194,556 people
- City population
- 52,516
- Metro
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 52,516
- Household income
- $100,388
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 13% of renters
Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 194,556 people
- By 2030
- 209,679 · +7.8%
- By 2040
- 238,837 · +22.8%
- By 2050
- 265,451 · +36.4%
- By 2075
- 326,571 · +67.9%
- By 2100
- 362,156 · +86.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 39% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Asian 1% Native American 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 25%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 2% Slovak 1%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 80% English-only · Spanish 18%
Political lean MEDSL · Ellis
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -67.06%
- Current HPI
- 294.5836
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 2.99%
- Metro
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
|
||
| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
||
| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
||
| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
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| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
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Price history
-10.8% since first listed5 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-30 Listed $345,000 NTREIS
- 2023-05-05 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
- 2023-02-13 Pending — NTREIS
- 2023-02-08 Price Changed $366,900 NTREIS
- 2023-01-17 Listed $386,900 NTREIS
Property tax history
+136.6%/yrLatest (2025): $7,028 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…