17973 S Grant Dr #489 · Oregon City, OR 97045

$195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,538 sqft · Other public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1999

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in a desirable family-friendly community, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers comfort, convenience, and opportunity. The spacious floor plan features central air conditioning, generous living areas, a covered carport, and a storage shed for additional space and organization. Enjoy the peaceful setting with nearby wooded views that provide a sense of privacy and connection to nature while remaining close to shopping, dining, schools, medical services, and major commuting routes. The home has been well cared for and offers a wonderful opportunity for a new owner to add their own personal touches. Seller is willing to provide a credit toward floori

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Covered carport
• Wooded views

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• WOODED VIEWS
• NEARBY SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit dimensions approximately 27' x 65'
• Financial info: Land lease expires July 21, 2026; Monthly lot rent reported
• HOA & community: Located in Country Village Estates (family friendly park); Land lease (monthly lot rent)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service; Cable internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park (residential); Built in 1999; Single‑level main living area
• Construction: Composition roof; Skirting foundation
• Exterior features: Porch; Dog run; Tool shed; T‑111 siding; Level lot; Road access: paved and dirt

Interior

• Kitchen: Cook island; Island; Dishwasher; Free‑standing range; Free‑standing refrigerator; Nook in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with ensuite and skylight; Second bedroom on main level; Third bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring (kitchen, dining, bedrooms, utility); Vinyl flooring; Wall‑to‑wall carpet (living room, primary bedroom)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Skylights; Soaking tub; Washer and dryer included; Vinyl window frames
• Laundry & utility: Main level utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $774 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.6% in Oregon City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#12 in OR, #271 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Oregon City SD 62 (suburban): math 18% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #40 of 58 in OR (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Redland Elementary School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #263 of 412 statewide, top 68%, 496 students, 27% FRL); Tumwata Middle School (math 11% / reading 37%, grade F, #115 of 128 statewide, top 90%, 654 students, 34% FRL); Oregon City Senior High School (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #94 of 143 statewide, top 70%, 1,931 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 408 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $195,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.02%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $13,087
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $56,578
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97045

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,457 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $751/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $774

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,477

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18807 Nutmeg Ln Oregon City, OR	3.0	2.5	2044	$3,200	$1.57	23d	1	0.92mi
14338 S Maple Lane Ct Oregon City, OR	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,000	$2.01	1d	14	0.98mi
14378 Walnut Grove Way Oregon City, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,595	$2.56	1d	24	1.08mi
14155 Beavercreek Rd Oregon City, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,975	$2.25	1d	4	1.08mi
14155 Beavercreek Rd Apt 235 Oregon City, OR	3.0	2.0	1153	$1,995	$1.73	23d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $195,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $751 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,140/yr (+$95/mo · 151.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$751
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,358
• − Management: −$2,358
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $6,442
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,546
• After-tax cash flow: $7,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oregon City SD 62
• NCES district ID: 4109330
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $64,272
• Composite: 26.65/100
• National rank: #7169
• State rank: #40 of 58 in OR

Livability — Oregon City

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #271

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• City population: 57,526
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 57,526
• Household income: $103,573
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1045.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -624.55%
• Current HPI: 301.9661
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $195,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $751 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.