Plan 2527 Plan · San Antonio, TX 78253

$277,995

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,527 sqft · SingleFamily · 320 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Upstairs bonus space * Enclosed water closet at primary bath * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Low-E windows * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * Downstairs primary suite * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Low-e windows
• Front porch

Tags

• UPSTAIRS BONUS SPACE
• ENCLOSED WATER CLOSET
• CORNER KITCHEN PANTRY
• LOW-E WINDOWS
• FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $277,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $342,615.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-704 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 697 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,607 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.81%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,615
• List price: $277,995
• Delta: -18.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14859 Wild Hog	0.20mi	4/3.5	2,510 (-1%)	2mo	$299,900	$119	84
7811 Rock Wren Fall	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,348 (-7%)	1mo	$274,745	$117	72
7524 Corral Smt	0.34mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,609 (+3%)	0mo	$339,490	$130	72
7826 Kingfisher Ldg	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,788 (+10%)	1mo	$292,320	$105	70
7517 Corral Smt	0.34mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,609 (+3%)	3mo	$327,490	$126	69
8003 Kingfisher Lndg	0.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,880 (+14%)	2mo	$343,733	$119	68
7919 Mariposa Mnr	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,708 (+7%)	2mo	$315,618	$117	67
14919 Wildcat Basin	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,260 (-11%)	1mo	$327,990	$145	67
14751 Prairie Clover	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,489 (-2%)	1mo	$385,540	$155	66
7544 Corral Smt	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,260 (-11%)	2mo	$322,990	$143	63
7533 Corral Smt	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,260 (-11%)	3mo	$321,740	$142	62
14383 Palm Rdg	0.57mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,581 (+2%)	2mo	$324,860	$126	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-106,493
• Equity at exit: $51,085

10-year hold

• IRR: -69.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.82×
• Total profit: $-174,187
• Equity at exit: $29,623

Cash invested: $95,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78253

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 697
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,106 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,797
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$428 /mo · $5,139/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-704

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,997

Max offer price $240,754

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,654
• Closing costs: $10,278
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14715 Gecko Lndg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	2381	$1,897	$0.80	43d	1	0.12mi
14838 House Wren Fall San Antonio, TX	5.0	3.0	2500	$2,150	$0.86	43d	1	0.23mi
14507 Gecko Lndg San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2805	$2,150	$0.77	23d	1	0.29mi
14477 Gunsight Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1851	$1,950	$1.05	14d	1	0.36mi
7919 Mariposa Mnr San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2708	$2,450	$0.90	1d	1	0.42mi
14537 Flatiron Clf San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.5	2501	$2,500	$1.00	14d	1	0.44mi
7404 Cottontail Clf San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$1,950	$0.83	3d	1	0.50mi
14374 Elkhorn Crst San Antonio, TX	5.0	3.0	2581	$1,895	$0.73	43d	1	0.58mi
15214 Ohare Lndg San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2563	$2,175	$0.85	3d	1	0.64mi
14347 Gunsight Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1826	$1,789	$0.98	43d	1	0.64mi
14339 Gunsight Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	1912	$2,099	$1.10	23d	1	0.65mi
14338 Palm Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1826	$1,779	$0.97	43d	1	0.66mi
14644 Maple Ter San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1826	$1,799	$0.99	43d	1	0.68mi
14311 Gila Xing San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	1912	$1,850	$0.97	23d	1	0.69mi
15321 Sherwin Oak San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,700	$0.96	43d	1	0.71mi
7810 Asp Pt San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	1912	$1,900	$0.99	4d	1	0.73mi
7915 Bonsai Bay San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2088	$1,795	$0.86	43d	1	0.76mi
15126 Nettleton Ml Unit Nettleton Ml unit San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2666	$2,500	$0.94	21d	1	1.22mi
7003 Anacua Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1902	$2,495	$1.31	3d	8	1.37mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $277,995 Active 320 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $277,995 Active 319 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $277,995 Active 318 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $277,995 Active 317 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $277,995 Active 315 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $277,995 Active 311 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $277,995 Active 310 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $277,995 Active 309 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $277,995 Active 306 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $277,995 Active 305 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $277,995 Active 304 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $277,995 Active 303 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $277,995 Active 302 DOM
14. 2025-10-14
    price $277,995 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    * Upstairs bonus space * Enclosed water closet at primary bath * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Low-E windows * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * Downstairs primary suite * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby

15. 2025-09-10
    price $275,995 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    * Upstairs bonus space * Enclosed water closet at primary bath * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Low-E windows * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * Downstairs primary suite * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby

16. 2025-09-03
    price $265,995 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    * Upstairs bonus space * Enclosed water closet at primary bath * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Low-E windows * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * Downstairs primary suite * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby

17. 2025-08-20
    price $262,995 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    * Upstairs bonus space * Enclosed water closet at primary bath * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Low-E windows * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * Downstairs primary suite * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby

18. 2025-08-03
    price $272,995 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    * Upstairs bonus space * Enclosed water closet at primary bath * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Low-E windows * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * Downstairs primary suite * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby

19. 2025-08-03
    listed $269,995 Active 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    * Upstairs bonus space * Enclosed water closet at primary bath * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Low-E windows * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * Downstairs primary suite * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,192
• − Property taxes: −$5,139
• − Insurance: −$1,713
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,022
• − Management: −$2,022
• − Depreciation: −$9,967
• Taxable loss: −$14,782
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,548
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,282
• Household income: $106,373
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1496.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 34% Two or more races 27% Black 9% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.92%
• Current HPI: 199.1827
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.10%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $277,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $275,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $265,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $262,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $272,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-03 Listed $269,995 Zillow