The Avery (S110) Plan · Missouri City, TX 77459

$297,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,438 sqft · SingleFamily · 148 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Simplify mornings in the Avery's downstairs open concept kitchen. Upstairs, the primary suite features dual sinks and a large walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Primary suite
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL SINKS
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $297,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $309,270.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $298k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.6% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Palmer El (math 40% / reading 54%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 744 students, 54% FRL); Lake Olympia Middle (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 1,170 students, 71% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,955 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.22%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,270
• List price: $297,990
• Delta: -3.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1134 Cedar Place Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,604 (+12%)	2mo	$279,490	$174	77
4222 Laurel Oak Cir	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,604 (+12%)	3mo	$286,840	$179	76
3327 Bremerton Falls Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,295 (-10%)	1mo	$235,000	$181	49
1914 Livadero Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+13%)	5mo	$309,971	$190	41
3039 Dardanos Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+13%)	5mo	$304,000	$186	40
3035 Kalimera Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-5%)	21mo	$292,789	$215	37
3303 Oaklawn Place Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,295 (-10%)	24mo	$275,000	$212	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-58,669
• Equity at exit: $64,863

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-86,227
• Equity at exit: $60,079

Cash invested: $86,596 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,320 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,622
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,639/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,705

Max offer price $265,158

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-91	-5% $-198	+0% $-305	+5% $-412	+10% $-519
Rent	-10% $-488	-5% $-396	+0% $-305	+5% $-213	+10% $-122
Rate	-1.0pp $-149	-0.5pp $-226	base $-305	+0.5pp $-385	+1.0pp $-467

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,318
• Closing costs: $9,278
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1055 Memorial Bend Blvd Missouri City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,514	$2.53	0d	118	0.15mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	22d	1	0.88mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	45d	1	1.26mi
3302 Texas Pkwy Missouri City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,302	$1.63	3d	7	1.34mi
3102 Texas Pkwy Missouri City, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,301	$1.45	3d	3	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $297,990 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $297,990 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $297,990 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $297,990 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $297,990 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $297,990 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $297,990 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $297,990 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $297,990 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $297,990 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $297,990 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $313,995 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $313,995 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-04-24
    price $313,995 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    Simplify mornings in the Avery's downstairs open concept kitchen. Upstairs, the primary suite features dual sinks and a large walk-in closet.

15. 2026-04-23
    price $304,990 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    Simplify mornings in the Avery's downstairs open concept kitchen. Upstairs, the primary suite features dual sinks and a large walk-in closet.

16. 2026-01-24
    listed $313,995 Active 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    Simplify mornings in the Avery's downstairs open concept kitchen. Upstairs, the primary suite features dual sinks and a large walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,835
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,324
• − Property taxes: −$4,639
• − Insurance: −$1,546
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,227
• − Management: −$2,227
• − Depreciation: −$8,997
• Taxable loss: −$9,125
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,190
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

The Avery home requires significant updates to its interior spaces, including painting, flooring, and kitchen/bathroom renovations, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen — No photos of the kitchen
• Major Bathrooms — No photos of the bathrooms
• Major Flooring — No photos of the flooring
• Major Interior walls/paint — No photos of the interior walls/paint
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's appearance and value
• Resale Replace flooring — New flooring can enhance the home's appeal and value
• Resale Update kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers and increase the home's value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen · No photos of the kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · No photos of the bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No photos of the flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No photos of the interior walls/paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Resale Replace flooring — New flooring can enhance the home's appeal and value ↑
• Resale Update kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers and increase the home's value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $313,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-24 Listed $313,995 Zillow