434 Lawrence St · Burlington, NJ 08016

$149,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,252 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1880 1,437 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Welcome to 434 Lawrence St, a classic Burlington home ready for your personal touch. Perfect for investors, renovators, or savvy buyers looking to build equity, this property offers great bones and a prime location just minutes from the Burlington Riverfront, shopping, dining, parks, and major highways for easy commuting. Inside, you’ll find a layout with excellent potential—ideal for redesigning, updating, and transforming into the home of your dreams. Bring your tools, creativity, and vision—your next project awaits!

Key facts

• 1,437 sq ft lot
• Built 1880
• Listed 73 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Improvement assessed value and land assessed value available from assessor
• Financial info: Ownership: Fee simple

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public septic; Hot water: natural gas
• Home design: Detached structure; Frame construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 18 x 80; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: 90% forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (natural gas)
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Living area per assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $408 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 4.6% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#89 in NJ, #2,359 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F.
• Burlington City Public School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #439 of 472 in NJ (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $150k implies a 499% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.86%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,042
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $36,618
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08016

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,445 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,975/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $408

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,928

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
405 Lawrence St Burlington, NJ	4.0	1.0	1859	$2,000	$1.08	5d	1	0.02mi
328 High St Unit 2B Burlington, NJ	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,345	$1.95	12d	1	0.19mi
328 High St Unit 2A Burlington, NJ	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,345	$1.95	12d	1	0.19mi
341 Clarkson St Burlington, NJ	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,800	$2.59	1d	1	0.24mi
229 High St Burlington, NJ	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,975	$1.65	18d	1	0.27mi
103 W Union St Burlington, NJ	4.0	2.5	1333	$2,200	$1.65	15d	1	0.33mi
105 W Union St Burlington, NJ	4.0	1.5	1645	$2,000	$1.22	2d	1	0.33mi
516 Columbus Rd Burlington, NJ	4.0	1.0	1404	$2,400	$1.71	1d	1	0.43mi
516 Columbus Rd Burlington, NJ	4.0	1.0	1600	$2,750	$1.72	15d	1	0.43mi
806 High St Burlington, NJ	3.0	1.0	1376	$2,100	$1.53	18d	1	0.62mi
1201 High St Burlington, NJ	3.0	1.0	1064	$2,100	$1.97	24d	1	0.79mi
1001 Armistice Dr Burlington, NJ	3.0	1.0	884	$2,300	$2.60	24d	1	1.05mi
115 Cedar St Unit 2 Bristol, PA	3.0	1.0	1700	$2,600	$1.53	1d	1	1.27mi
234 Franklin St Unit 1st Floor Bristol, PA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	5d	1	1.48mi
523 Locust St Bristol, PA	3.0	1.0	1148	$1,925	$1.68	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $149,900 Pending 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   status Active
8. 2026-05-11
   historical
9. 2026-04-13
   status Active
10. 2026-02-03
    historical
11. 2026-01-14
    listed $149,900 Active
12. 2025-12-08
    historical $149,900
13. 2015-07-24
    historical
14. 2014-07-25
    listed $65,000
15. 1995-09-27
    soldstatus $25,007
16. 1983-08-01
    soldstatus $39,000
17. 1982-12-01
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,975 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,354 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: +$379/yr (+$32/mo · 12.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,975
• − Insurance: −$5,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,347
• − Management: −$2,347
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $3,040
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$730
• After-tax cash flow: $4,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burlington City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3402430
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,122
• Composite: 16.27/100
• National rank: #9218
• State rank: #439 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #2359

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burlington, NJ
• County: Burlington County · 323,710 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 34,920
• Household income: $98,463
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1045.0

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 33% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.42%
• Current HPI: 298.7935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+899.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-08 Coming Soon $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-07-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-07-25 Listed $65,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1995-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $25,007 Public Records
• 1983-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 1982-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,975 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.