301 Sunshine Rd · Cozad, NE 69130

$6,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1973

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This fixer-upper offers excellent potential for the right buyer and is situated in a highly sought-after neighborhood.

Key facts

• Built 1973
• Listed 19 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $6k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $624 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($835 rent vs $6k).
• Recommended offer: $6k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 131.1% vs local median 3.2% in Cozad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#22 in NE, #1,638 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cozad Community Schools (town): math 43% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #90 of 111 in NE (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 61 units permitted in Dawson County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $41 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $180 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dawson County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($6k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $5,910 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 13.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 131.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 445.64%
• DSCR: 20.83
• GRM: 0.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.08×
• Total profit: $38,773
• Equity at exit: $895

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 51.58×
• Total profit: $84,966
• Equity at exit: $519

Cash invested: $1,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 69130

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 0.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $835 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$31
• Tax from tax record: −$2 /mo · $22/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $45

Max offer price $6,000

Occupancy floor 20%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,500
• Closing costs: $180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
207 E 15th St Unit 1 Cozad, NE	1.0	1.0	500	$835	$1.67	43d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $6,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $6,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $6,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $6,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $6,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $6,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $6,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $6,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $6,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $6,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $6,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $6,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $6,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 118-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $6,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $22 · $2/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $104 · $9/mo
• Expected delta: +$82/yr (+$7/mo · 382.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,020
• − Mortgage interest: −$336
• − Property taxes: −$22
• − Insurance: −$30
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$802
• − Management: −$802
• − Depreciation: −$175
• Taxable income: $7,855
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,885
• After-tax cash flow: $5,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cozad Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 3105460
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $44,563
• Composite: 36.06/100
• National rank: #4770
• State rank: #90 of 111 in NE

Livability — Cozad

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #22
• US rank: #1638

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cozad, NE
• Population (ZIP): 5,056

Population outlook (Dawson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,318 people
• By 2030: 22,912 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 22,097 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 21,358 · -8.4%
• By 2075: 19,801 · -15.1%
• By 2100: 17,647 · -24.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Dawson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.6) · D 24.7% · R 74.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -49.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.6 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+45.0 2012: R+41.8 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.47%
• Current HPI: 231.4673
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

-89.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $6,000 FSBO.com
• 2015-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $59,519 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $22 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.