64 Patio Rd · Scotchtown, NY 10941

$299,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · Townhouse public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1971 2,100 sqft lot $208/sqft · 35% below area Est $463k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhouse located in the Pine Bush School District. The home features an open dining area and a galley kitchen with updated cabinetry and granite countertops. The kitchen flows into the living room with access to the backyard, perfect for relaxing or enjoying outdoor meals. A brand new refrigerator, as well as a washer(2025) and dryer(2022), is included. A half bathroom is also located on the first floor. The second floor includes three bedrooms with hardwood flooring and a full bathroom. The property offers driveway parking and is situated in a community that includes a playground and park. Close to shopping, major highways, and dining options.

Key facts

• 2,100 sq ft lot
• Built 1971
• Listed 71 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.7% in Scotchtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#515 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D, schools F.
• Pine Bush Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 57 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $149k; list at $300k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $269,403 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.67%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $462,818
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -35.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Cindy Ln	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,440 (0%)	22mo	$217,500	$151	80
52 Hampton Ct	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,440 (0%)	18mo	$279,000	$194	78
36 Hampton Ct	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,508 (+5%)	10mo	$329,900	$219	77
26 Chaucer Ct	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,428 (-1%)	14mo	$300,000	$210	61
32 Patio Rd	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+11%)	14mo	$300,000	$188	60
160 Patio Rd	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,620 (+12%)	19mo	$335,000	$207	58
84 Sandburg Ct	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-7%)	11mo	$340,000	$253	56
38 Hampton Ct	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,280 (-11%)	23mo	$275,000	$215	56
18 Shelley Ct	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,428 (-1%)	21mo	$295,000	$207	55
708 Silver Lake Scotchtown Rd	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+11%)	20mo	$330,000	$206	51
70 Sandburg Ct	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,560 (+8%)	12mo	$322,500	$207	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-40,728
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-24,172
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10941

• Home prices YoY: -22.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,694 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,762/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,546

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 Tower Ridge Cir Scotchtown, NY	2.0	2.0	1123	$2,600	$2.32	13d	1	0.29mi
411 Tower Ridge Cir Scotchtown, NY	2.0	2.0	1225	$2,700	$2.20	13d	1	0.29mi
114 Tower Ridge Cir Scotchtown, NY	2.0	2.0	1225	$2,700	$2.20	43d	1	0.40mi
834 Tower Ridge Cir Middletown, NY	2.0	2.0	1249	$2,400	$1.92	43d	1	0.42mi
310 Tower Dr Scotchtown, NY	2.0	2.0	1225	$2,700	$2.20	43d	1	0.44mi
200 Tower Dr Scotchtown, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1142	$2,900	$2.54	13d	5	0.45mi
100 Tower Ridge Cir Unit 122 Middletown, NY	2.0	2.0	1330	$3,000	$2.26	43d	1	0.45mi
10 Chaucer Ct Middletown, NY	3.0	1.5	1428	$2,400	$1.68	43d	1	0.53mi
202 Midland Lake Rd Middletown, NY	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,800	$1.58	23d	1	0.84mi
225 Berkman Dr Middletown, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	881	$2,440	$2.77	13d	45	1.17mi

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,900 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $325,000 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhouse located in the Pine Bush School District. The home features an open dining area and a galley kitchen with updated cabinetry and granite countertops. The kitchen flows into the living room with access to the backyard, perfect for relaxing or enjoying outdoor meals. A brand new refrigerator, as well as a washer(2025) and dryer(2022), is included. A half bathroom is also located on the first floor. The second floor includes three bedrooms with hardwood flooring and a full bathroom. The property offers driveway parking and is situated in a community that includes a playground and park. Close to shopping, major highways, and dining options.

17. 2026-04-27
    status Active 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhouse located in the Pine Bush School District. The home features an open dining area and a galley kitchen with updated cabinetry and granite countertops. The kitchen flows into the living room with access to the backyard, perfect for relaxing or enjoying outdoor meals. A brand new refrigerator, as well as a washer(2025) and dryer(2022), is included. A half bathroom is also located on the first floor. The second floor includes three bedrooms with hardwood flooring and a full bathroom. The property offers driveway parking and is situated in a community that includes a playground and park. Close to shopping, major highways, and dining options.

18. 2026-04-17
    price $329,000 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhouse located in the Pine Bush School District. The home features an open dining area and a galley kitchen with updated cabinetry and granite countertops. The kitchen flows into the living room with access to the backyard, perfect for relaxing or enjoying outdoor meals. A brand new refrigerator, as well as a washer(2025) and dryer(2022), is included. A half bathroom is also located on the first floor. The second floor includes three bedrooms with hardwood flooring and a full bathroom. The property offers driveway parking and is situated in a community that includes a playground and park. Close to shopping, major highways, and dining options.

19. 2026-04-08
    listed $332,000 Active 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhouse located in the Pine Bush School District. The home features an open dining area and a galley kitchen with updated cabinetry and granite countertops. The kitchen flows into the living room with access to the backyard, perfect for relaxing or enjoying outdoor meals. A brand new refrigerator, as well as a washer(2025) and dryer(2022), is included. A half bathroom is also located on the first floor. The second floor includes three bedrooms with hardwood flooring and a full bathroom. The property offers driveway parking and is situated in a community that includes a playground and park. Close to shopping, major highways, and dining options.

20. 2024-06-02
    historical $2,350
21. 2024-05-10
    listed $2,350
22. 2020-07-28
    soldstatus $149,000
23. 2020-06-30
    soldstatus $149,000 Closed 198-char remark

    Show marketing remark (198 chars)

    Fresh paint, bright 3-bed rooms, one and a half bath townhouse with pine bush school district. Tiled and Laminin downstairs and wood floor upstairs. Fenced yard. Priced for a fast sale. Sale as it.

24. 2020-03-25
    status Pending 198-char remark

    Show marketing remark (198 chars)

    Fresh paint, bright 3-bed rooms, one and a half bath townhouse with pine bush school district. Tiled and Laminin downstairs and wood floor upstairs. Fenced yard. Priced for a fast sale. Sale as it.

25. 2020-03-09
    status Pending 198-char remark

    Show marketing remark (198 chars)

    Fresh paint, bright 3-bed rooms, one and a half bath townhouse with pine bush school district. Tiled and Laminin downstairs and wood floor upstairs. Fenced yard. Priced for a fast sale. Sale as it.

26. 2020-02-16
    listed $145,000 Active 198-char remark

    Show marketing remark (198 chars)

    Fresh paint, bright 3-bed rooms, one and a half bath townhouse with pine bush school district. Tiled and Laminin downstairs and wood floor upstairs. Fenced yard. Priced for a fast sale. Sale as it.

27. 2016-07-13
    historical
28. 2016-07-08
    listed $114,900 Active
29. 2016-05-10
    price $51,888
30. 2016-05-10
    soldstatus $51,888 Sold
31. 2016-05-10
    soldstatus $51,888
32. 2016-02-08
    historical Pending
33. 2016-02-08
    price $89,100
34. 2016-01-22
    status Active
35. 2015-12-23
    historical Pending
36. 2015-10-01
    price $89,100
37. 2015-08-11
    price $99,000
38. 2015-06-17
    listed $110,000 Active
39. 2015-06-17
    listed $89,100
40. 2013-12-18
    price $174,900
41. 2005-12-06
    soldstatus $180,000
42. 2005-11-14
    soldstatus $180,000
43. 2005-10-07
    historical
44. 2005-08-21
    listed $180,000
45. 2001-08-08
    soldstatus $76,000
46. 1975-12-01
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,762 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,415 · $368/mo
• Expected delta: +$653/yr (+$54/mo · 17.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$3,762
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,586
• − Management: −$2,586
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$3,629
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$871
• After-tax cash flow: $2,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Bush Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623010
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,525
• Composite: 37.87/100
• National rank: #4324
• State rank: #468 of 590 in NY

Livability — Scotchtown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #9142

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scotchtown, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 14,422
• Household income: $99,238
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 525.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 21% Two or more races 16% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.38%
• Current HPI: 326.3597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.15%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1200.0% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $329,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $332,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-02 Rental Removed $2,350 ONEKEY
• 2024-05-10 Listed for Rent $2,350 ONEKEY
• 2020-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $149,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-30 Sold (MLS) $149,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-25 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-16 Listed $145,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-08 Listed $114,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-10 Sold (MLS) $51,888 HGMLS
• 2016-05-10 Price Changed $51,888 HGMLS
• 2016-05-10 Sold (MLS) $51,888 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-08 Contingent — HGMLS
• 2016-02-08 Price Changed $89,100 HGMLS
• 2016-01-22 Relisted — HGMLS
• 2015-12-23 Contingent — HGMLS
• 2015-10-01 Price Changed $89,100 HGMLS
• 2015-08-11 Price Changed $99,000 HGMLS
• 2015-06-17 Listed $110,000 HGMLS
• 2015-06-17 Listed $89,100 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-18 Price Changed $174,900 HGMLS
• 2005-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-14 Sold (MLS) $180,000 HGMLS
• 2005-10-07 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2005-08-21 Listed $180,000 HGMLS
• 2001-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 1975-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,762 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.