158 Kennedy Dr · Venus, TX 76084

$324,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,590 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2018 0.29 ac lot Est $404k · 20% under $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New! Move-in ready! This lovely 5 bedroom home features a large family room plus game room. The fully equipped kitchen showcases new, energy-efficient kitchen appliances (including refrigerator), stunning granite countertops, and breakfast bar. The spacious master suite features walk-in closet, soaking tub and separate shower. This home is a must see!

Key facts

• Nicely sized pantry
• Community pool
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• NICELY SIZED PANTRY
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• GAME ROOM
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Association fee paid annually
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with annual fee (management fees included); HOA management: Principle Management Company

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Concrete driveway
• Security: Fire alarm; Audio and video surveillance devices present
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Cable available; All-weather road access; Sidewalk
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Residential property; Built in 2018
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Smart home features
• Exterior features: Private yard; Storage; Fenced backyard with full wood privacy fencing; Corner lot; Landscaped; Outdoor pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets; Pantry and walk-in pantry; Dual sinks
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on level 1 with ensuite bath, separate shower and walk-in closet; Four additional bedrooms (mostly on level 2) — each with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom with garden tub, separate shower and separate vanities
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Granite counters; Double vanity; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Smart home system; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room / separate utility with built-in cabinets

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-743 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (40.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (40.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Venus El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 658 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,633 (40.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.80%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $404,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
157 Washington Way	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,572 (-1%)	10mo	$298,500	$116	74
141 Jefferson Dr	0.25mi	3/3.5	2,564 (-1%)	10mo	$299,000	$117	72
153 Jefferson Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5	2,228 (-14%)	0mo	$289,500	$130	65
158 Jefferson Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	2,963 (+14%)	9mo	$259,900	$88	61
137 Jefferson Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5	2,228 (-14%)	6mo	$288,000	$129	58
213 Patton Ln	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,369 (-8%)	2mo	$374,990	$158	50
211 Liberty Ln	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,209 (-15%)	8mo	$300,000	$136	49
108 Patrick Henry Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,369 (-8%)	8mo	$374,990	$158	48
113 John Laurens Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,369 (-8%)	7mo	$369,990	$156	48
116 John Laurens Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,369 (-8%)	6mo	$374,990	$158	48
102 Patrick Henry Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,369 (-8%)	10mo	$369,990	$156	45
216 Ozro Rd	0.71mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,973 (+15%)	9mo	$775,000	$261	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $71,380
• Equity at exit: $231,985

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $239,998
• Equity at exit: $447,003

Cash invested: $90,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,298 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$691 /mo · $8,293/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-743

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,238

Max offer price $193,633

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,225
• Closing costs: $9,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Hancock St Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,929	$1.09	1d	1	0.30mi
208 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,330	$1.31	11d	1	0.36mi
214 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	43d	1	0.38mi
640-644 Wheatfield DR Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,100	$1.09	1d	1	0.43mi
201 John Laurens Dr Venus, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1975	$2,250	$1.14	1d	1	0.50mi
720 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$2,200	$1.14	7d	1	0.53mi
325 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2189	$2,325	$1.06	12d	1	0.61mi
428 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,150	$1.21	24d	1	0.66mi
313 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	7d	1	0.72mi
315 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,515	$1.16	2d	1	0.73mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-04-22
   price $324,900
4. 2026-04-08
   price $349,000
5. 2026-03-26
   price $358,900
6. 2026-02-27
   listed $369,900 Active
7. 2018-05-31
   soldstatus Sold 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   New! Move-in ready! This lovely 5 bedroom home features a large family room plus game room. The fully equipped kitchen showcases new, energy-efficient kitchen appliances (including refrigerator), stunning granite countertops, and breakfast bar. The spacious master suite features walk-in closet, soaking tub and separate shower. This home is a must see!

8. 2018-03-15
   status Pending 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   New! Move-in ready! This lovely 5 bedroom home features a large family room plus game room. The fully equipped kitchen showcases new, energy-efficient kitchen appliances (including refrigerator), stunning granite countertops, and breakfast bar. The spacious master suite features walk-in closet, soaking tub and separate shower. This home is a must see!

9. 2018-03-09
   listed $236,900 Active 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   New! Move-in ready! This lovely 5 bedroom home features a large family room plus game room. The fully equipped kitchen showcases new, energy-efficient kitchen appliances (including refrigerator), stunning granite countertops, and breakfast bar. The spacious master suite features walk-in closet, soaking tub and separate shower. This home is a must see!

10. 2018-03-01
    historical
11. 2018-01-18
    listed $238,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,293 · $691/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,293 · $691/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,199
• − Property taxes: −$8,293
• − Insurance: −$1,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,206
• − Management: −$2,206
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$9,452
• Taxable loss: −$14,744
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,538
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venus, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+36.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $324,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $349,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $358,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $369,900 NTREIS
• 2018-05-31 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2018-03-15 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-03-09 Listed $236,900 NTREIS
• 2018-03-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2018-01-18 Listed $238,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+45.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,293 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.