8644 E Fm 840 · Henderson, TX 75654

$169,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 192 Days on market

Built 1996

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country living at its best with this rustic ranch-style home sitting on 5.7 acres just minutes from town. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home has that true country charm - wood siding, metal roof, and a full front porch made for relaxing. Inside you will find tall ceilings that open up the space and give it that cabin feel. The property offers plenty of room for animals, a garden, or just enjoying the peace and quiet. With its mixed privacy and convenience, this place gives you the best of both worlds - country comfort without being too far from everything you need.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Full front porch
• Tall ceilings

Tags

• RUSTIC RANCH STYLE
• WOOD SIDING
• METAL ROOF
• FULL FRONT PORCH
• TALL CEILINGS
• ROOM FOR ANIMALS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.9% in Henderson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#408 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Henderson ISD (town): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #573 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William E Wylie El (math 31% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,965 of 4,322 statewide, top 46%, 671 students, 66% FRL); Henderson Middle (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 785 students, 58% FRL); Henderson H S (math 39% / reading 53%, grade D-, #627 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 1,042 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Rusk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rusk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,801 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.94%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $79,655
• Equity at exit: $152,249

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $244,372
• Equity at exit: $328,330

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75654

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,238 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,594/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,485

Max offer price $134,584

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-99	-5% $-147	+0% $-195	+5% $-243	+10% $-290
Rent	-10% $-293	-5% $-244	+0% $-195	+5% $-146	+10% $-97
Rate	-1.0pp $-110	-0.5pp $-152	base $-195	+0.5pp $-239	+1.0pp $-283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 192 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,000 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,000 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,000 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $169,000 Active 180 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,000 Active 179 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $169,000 Active 178 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 173 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 172 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 171 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 170 DOM
17. 2026-02-06
    price $179,000 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Country living at its best with this rustic ranch-style home sitting on 5.7 acres just minutes from town. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home has that true country charm - wood siding, metal roof, and a full front porch made for relaxing. Inside you will find tall ceilings that open up the space and give it that cabin feel. The property offers plenty of room for animals, a garden, or just enjoying the peace and quiet. With its mixed privacy and convenience, this place gives you the best of both worlds - country comfort without being too far from everything you need.

18. 2025-12-07
    listed $189,000 Active 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Country living at its best with this rustic ranch-style home sitting on 5.7 acres just minutes from town. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home has that true country charm - wood siding, metal roof, and a full front porch made for relaxing. Inside you will find tall ceilings that open up the space and give it that cabin feel. The property offers plenty of room for animals, a garden, or just enjoying the peace and quiet. With its mixed privacy and convenience, this place gives you the best of both worlds - country comfort without being too far from everything you need.

19. 2024-11-26
    soldstatus
20. 2024-11-26
    soldstatus
21. 2017-04-20
    soldstatus 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Cabin in the country. Full length porch on front and back. Beautiful woodworking. Property has a small spring fed pond and good road frontage. Fig, pecan, peach and pear trees. There is a well on property. Small greenhouse, old barn, large metal shop with workshop area. Large downstairs area could easily be finished out and almost double your square footage.

22. 2017-04-20
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Cabin in the country. Full length porch on front and back. Beautiful woodworking. Property has a small spring fed pond and good road frontage. Fig, pecan, peach and pear trees. There is a well on property. Small greenhouse, old barn, large metal shop with workshop area. Large downstairs area could easily be finished out and almost double your square footage.

23. 2017-04-04
    listed $85,000 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Cabin in the country. Full length porch on front and back. Beautiful woodworking. Property has a small spring fed pond and good road frontage. Fig, pecan, peach and pear trees. There is a well on property. Small greenhouse, old barn, large metal shop with workshop area. Large downstairs area could easily be finished out and almost double your square footage.

24. 2016-10-28
    listed $85,000
25. 1968-04-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,594 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,093 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: +$499/yr (+$42/mo · 19.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,594
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,188
• − Management: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$5,343
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,282
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henderson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822970
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $46,296
• Composite: 27.91/100
• National rank: #6868
• State rank: #573 of 826 in TX

Livability — Henderson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #408
• US rank: #8434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,184

Population outlook (Rusk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,498 people
• By 2030: 52,093 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 50,866 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 49,696 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 48,583 · -7.5%
• By 2100: 43,265 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 16% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Rusk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.4) · D 20.0% · R 79.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -46.3pp · 2024: -59.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.4 2020: R+55.7 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.1 2008: R+46.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.83%
• Current HPI: 397.5
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+110.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $179,000 LAAR
• 2025-12-07 Listed $189,000 LAAR
• 2024-11-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-11-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-04-20 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2017-04-20 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2017-04-04 Listed $85,000 GTAR
• 2016-10-28 Listed $85,000 LAAR
• 1968-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,594 · +47.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.