1301 Taft Hwy #123 · Bakersfield, CA 93307

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,034 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1994 Est $90k · 28% over $800/mo HOA · 44% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HOA $520. Subject to parking approval.

Key facts

• Full kitchen
• Newer roof
• Extra pantry

Tags

• FULL KITCHEN
• TILE FLOORING
• EXTRA PANTRY
• DEDICATED INDOOR LAUNDRY AREA
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Southland Mobile Home Park HOA; HOA fee $800 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer
• Home design: Mobile home zoning; Owner-occupied
• Construction: Concrete perimeter foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Community pool; Leased space in a mobile home park; Neighborhood: Greenfield; Cross street: Taft Hwy.

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/Oven
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat
• Interior features: Range/Oven; Central heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-774/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (9.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ridgeview High (reading 95%, 2,688 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 314 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $115k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,608 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.40%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,958
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1301 Taft Hwy #50	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+2%)	7mo	$109,900	$104	86
1301 Taft Hwy #99	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,034 (0%)	22mo	$95,900	$93	77
1301 Taft Hwy #126	0.00mi	2/2.0	924 (-11%)	9mo	$55,000	$60	75
1301 Taft Hwy #31	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+8%)	14mo	$130,000	$116	70
1301 Taft Hwy #58	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+11%)	9mo	$100,000	$87	69
1225 Taft Hwy #19	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,058 (+2%)	23mo	$65,000	$61	68
1301 Taft Hwy #163	0.00mi	3/1.8 (+1)	1,152 (+11%)	16mo	$60,000	$52	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-17,150
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $3,907
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93307

• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 314
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,830 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $709/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$800
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,912

Max offer price $103,608

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1	-5% $-32	+0% $-64	+5% $-97	+10% $-130
Rent	-10% $-209	-5% $-137	+0% $-64	+5% $8	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $-7	-0.5pp $-35	base $-64	+0.5pp $-94	+1.0pp $-125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1408 Interlaken Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1159	$2,250	$1.94	23d	1	1.00mi
8914 S Union Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,950	$1.30	4d	1	1.10mi
600 Hosking Ave Unit 75B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1008	$1,650	$1.64	23d	1	1.38mi
600 Hosking Ave Unit 47B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1008	$1,650	$1.64	12d	1	1.38mi
600 Hosking Ave Unit 56A Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,750	$1.46	4d	1	1.38mi
600 Hosking Ave Unit 51D Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	5d	1	1.38mi
600 Hosking Ave Unit 73D Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,850	$1.50	45d	1	1.38mi
600 Hosking Ave Unit 43B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,650	$1.57	45d	1	1.38mi
600 Hosking Ave Apt 69A Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,850	$1.53	21d	1	1.38mi
600 Hosking Ave Unit 47C Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1008	$1,650	$1.64	4d	1	1.38mi
1305 Quartz Hill Rd Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1351	$2,250	$1.67	4d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $800 · $9,600/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $709 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $874 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$165/yr (+$14/mo · 23.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$709
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,757
• − Management: −$1,757
• − HOA: −$9,600
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$2,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$534
• After-tax cash flow: $-240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bakersfield

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #21355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bakersfield, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 499,124
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 85,945
• Household income: $56,446
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3246.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 12% White 10% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 28% English-only · Spanish 69% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -263.59%
• Current HPI: 447.1746
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+557.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $115,000 GEMLS
• 2022-06-09 Sold (MLS) $65,000 GEMLS
• 2022-05-17 Pending — GEMLS
• 2022-05-09 Listed $65,000 GEMLS
• 2011-09-06 Sold (MLS) $17,500 GEMLS
• 2011-08-23 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2011-08-23 Price Changed $21,000 GEMLS
• 2011-07-06 Listed $17,500 GEMLS

Property tax history

+18.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $709 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.