2657 Woodgate Ln Unit E4 · Ridge Wood Heights, FL 34231

$189,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Condo public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1980 $563/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well kept and updated first level condo. The kitchen has been updated cabiinets and countertops. The primary bathroom has been updated as well. This unit come partially furnished. Parking couldn't be easier with a carport parking spot right in front of the unit. The front porch has been screened in for the morning coffee and book. All the kitchen appliances convey including the washer and dryer. This community offers a community pool, community center that offers a pool table and fitness area.

Key facts

• Updated cabinets
• Community pool
• Updated countertops

Tags

• UPDATED CABINETS
• UPDATED COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED PRIMARY BATHROOM
• CARPORT PARKING SPOT
• SCREENED IN FRONT PORCH
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (10.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $171k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#470 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 562 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $136k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,556 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.43%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-43,211
• Equity at exit: $28,255

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-68,293
• Equity at exit: $16,384

Cash invested: $53,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34231

• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 562
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,031 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$994
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $909/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$563
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,166

Max offer price $170,556

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,375
• Closing costs: $5,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $563 · $6,756/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $189,500 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-03-19
    listed $195,000 Active 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    Well kept and updated first level condo. The kitchen has been updated cabiinets and countertops. The primary bathroom has been updated as well. This unit come partially furnished. Parking couldn't be easier with a carport parking spot right in front of the unit. The front porch has been screened in for the morning coffee and book. All the kitchen appliances convey including the washer and dryer. This community offers a community pool, community center that offers a pool table and fitness area.

18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-01-23
    listed $249,000 Active
20. 2018-02-02
    soldstatus $136,000
21. 2018-01-31
    historical
22. 2018-01-31
    soldstatus $136,000 Sold
23. 2017-11-27
    status Pending
24. 2017-11-07
    listed $138,900 Active
25. 2014-05-14
    soldstatus $85,000
26. 1997-03-10
    soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $909 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,573 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$664/yr (+$55/mo · 73.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,615
• − Property taxes: −$909
• − Insurance: −$948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,949
• − Management: −$1,949
• − HOA: −$6,756
• − Depreciation: −$5,513
• Taxable loss: −$4,271
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,025
• After-tax cash flow: $-262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ridge Wood Heights

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #470
• US rank: #8497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ridge Wood Heights, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,404
• Household income: $69,925
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1983.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -448.92%
• Current HPI: 292.9055
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.13%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+230.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-23 Listed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $136,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-31 Sold (MLS) $136,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-07 Listed $138,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1997-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $909 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.