4125 W Miller Rd · Eloy, AZ 85131

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Manufactured public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1991 7,118 sqft lot Est $207k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully located 3-bedroom, 2-bath gem just minutes from the I-10, offering effortless commuting without sacrificing peace and privacy. Situated on a generous corner lot, this property showcases breathtaking mountain views and plenty of outdoor space to relax or entertain. Inside, enjoy brand-new flooring throughout and the peace of mind that comes with a new roof, along with a thoughtfully designed layout featuring a formal dining room, convenient indoor laundry, and accessibility-friendly features for comfortable everyday living. The fully fenced yard provides added privacy—perfect for pets, play, or hosting gatherings. With its ideal location, modern updates

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Indoor laundry
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• CORNER LOT
• NEW ROOF
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• INDOOR LAUNDRY
• FULLY FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner lot with dirt front and dirt back; Lot size recorded at 7,118 (source: assessor)
• Financial info: Conventional financing available
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured / mobile housing; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fence; Asphalt road access (city maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full bath in primary bedroom; Laminate counters; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.3% in Eloy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#78 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Arizona City Elementary School (math 6% / reading 15%, grade F, #993 of 1,109 statewide, top 91%, 744 students, 87% FRL); Vista Grande High School (math 10% / reading 16%, grade F, #279 of 381 statewide, top 73%, 1,790 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $199k implies a 3880% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,419 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.84%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,408
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3200 N Rankin St	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+1%)	20mo	$208,000	$149	72
4355 W Hammon Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-3%)	15mo	$191,000	$142	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-23,941
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,440
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85131

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,644 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $485/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,477

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $245	-5% $188	+0% $132	+5% $76	+10% $19
Rent	-10% $2	-5% $67	+0% $132	+5% $197	+10% $262
Rate	-1.0pp $232	-0.5pp $183	base $132	+0.5pp $80	+1.0pp $28

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-02-02
    listed $199,000 Active
17. 2025-06-11
    status Active
18. 2025-06-03
    status Pending
19. 2025-06-03
    historical
20. 2025-05-16
    price $169,000
21. 2025-02-24
    price $179,000
22. 2024-10-19
    listed $185,000 Active
23. 1991-06-19
    soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,313 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$829/yr (+$69/mo · 170.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$485
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,578
• − Management: −$1,578
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,842
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$442
• After-tax cash flow: $2,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Eloy

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #12496

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eloy, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 18,794
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 18,794
• Household income: $56,576
• Rent vs Own: 24.6% rent · 75.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Native American 5% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.00%
• Current HPI: 171.3217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+3880.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Listed $199,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-11 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-06-03 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-06-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $169,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-24 Price Changed $179,000 ARMLS
• 2024-10-19 Listed $185,000 ARMLS
• 1991-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $485 · -19.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.