5136 Gary Ave · Ashtabula, OH 44004

$65,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,037 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1900 Est $114k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this home!Exterior is in standard condition with a roof replaced around 2019. Furnace and hot water tank were also updated around the same time. A fenced yard was added within the last 5 years. Inside, the home needs updates and is being sold as-is. The living room and downstairs bedroom have updated flooring. Upstairs includes a bonus room that could be used as a third bedroom. Perfect for investors, handymen, or buyers looking for a project with solid mechanicals already done. 3 bedrooms (including bonus room), 2 bathrooms, 1,037 sq ft. Cash, conventional, or as-is financing preferred.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Bonus room
• Updated flooring

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• ROOF REPLACED
• UPDATED FLOORING
• BONUS ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 8.2% in Ashtabula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#420 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ashtabula Area City (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #588 of 656 in OH (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $65k implies a 282% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $64,025 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.17%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,070
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5425 Adams Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+11%)	2mo	$107,500	$93	64
5611 Poplar Ave	0.44mi	2/1.0	960 (-7%)	2mo	$100,000	$104	64
907 W 50th St	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,140 (+10%)	7mo	$140,000	$123	63
814 W 58th St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	970 (-6%)	6mo	$28,000	$29	54
1614 E 49th St	0.65mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-3%)	6mo	$115,000	$114	53
1719 E 48th St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+2%)	6mo	$79,900	$76	51
5222 Nathan Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0	936 (-10%)	8mo	$124,000	$132	51
1115 W 43rd St	0.54mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,157 (+12%)	7mo	$155,000	$134	45
730 W 57th St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,192 (+15%)	7mo	$45,000	$38	44
5944 West Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,156 (+12%)	6mo	$140,000	$121	40
1611 E 48th St	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,168 (+13%)	6mo	$70,000	$60	40
5207 Samuel Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,137 (+10%)	7mo	$125,000	$110	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $23,473
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $64,317
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44004

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,231/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $596

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-27
    listed $65,000 Active
16. 2022-07-01
    historical
17. 2022-06-07
    price $50,000
18. 2022-03-09
    listed $59,000 Active
19. 2018-01-19
    soldstatus $17,000
20. 2011-11-01
    historical
21. 2007-12-01
    listed $45,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,231 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,231 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,231
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,220
• − Management: −$1,220
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $5,722
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,373
• After-tax cash flow: $5,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashtabula Area City
• NCES district ID: 3904351
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $34,812
• Composite: 24.3/100
• National rank: #7712
• State rank: #588 of 656 in OH

Livability — Ashtabula

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #6883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashtabula, OH
• County: Ashtabula · 97,617 people
• City population: 31,076
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 31,076
• Household income: $49,507
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 14.1

Population outlook (Ashtabula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,950 people
• By 2030: 89,146 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 80,715 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 72,270 · -22.2%
• By 2075: 55,780 · -40.0%
• By 2100: 40,928 · -56.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashtabula

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.4% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.9pp toward R · 2008: 13.5pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.51%
• Current HPI: 260.7146
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+42.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $65,000 FSBO.com
• 2022-07-01 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2022-06-07 Price Changed $50,000 MLSNOW
• 2022-03-09 Listed $59,000 MLSNOW
• 2018-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records
• 2011-11-01 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2007-12-01 Listed $45,500 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+36.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,231 · +237.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.