4141 Deep Creek Rd #89 · Fremont, CA 94555

$299,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 210 Days on market

Built 1972 $208/sqft · 39% above area Est $215k · 39% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2BR/2BA Home in Besaro Community! Well maintained home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with spacious living room plus family room and vaulted ceilings. Separate dining area along with extra sun room and updated kitchen with appliances included. Good-sized bedrooms, laminated flooring throughout, and indoor laundry with washer and dryer. Usable yard space with storage shed and a cozy side porch-perfect for morning coffee. Guest parking near by. Community amenities include a clubhouse with pool and spa. Conveniently located near freeways, shopping, and dining. Open House Sunday May 17th 1pm-4pm

Key facts

• Usable yard space
• Extra sun room
• Storage shed

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• EXTRA SUN ROOM
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• USABLE YARD SPACE
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $789 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 1.2% in Fremont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#10 in CA, #561 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Fremont Unified (suburban): math 76% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #23 of 517 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $299k implies a 353% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $263,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.31%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,380
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: 38.82%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4141 Deepcreek #106	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$130,000	$90	86
4141 Deep Creed Rd #129	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$235,000	$163	81
4141 Deep Creek Rd #98	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	16mo	$275,000	$205	75
269 Oahu	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$285,000	$198	66
4141 Deep Creek Rd #176	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+7%)	18mo	$252,000	$164	66
324 Waikiki Cir	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$165,000	$115	66
51 Palm Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$225,000	$156	58
328 Waikiki Cir	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	3mo	$215,000	$160	53
293 Maui Cir	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	13mo	$250,000	$183	48
297 Maui Cir #297	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	16mo	$165,000	$121	47
63 Palm Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	16mo	$225,000	$167	43
289 Maui Cir	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,541 (+7%)	12mo	$432,500	$281	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,608
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $70,337
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94555

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,614 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$759
• Net cashflow: $789

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3842 Cardinal Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1607	$4,100	$2.55	17d	1	0.46mi
33877 Raven Ter Fremont, CA	2.0	1.5	1315	$3,700	$2.81	14d	1	0.52mi
4123 Asimuth Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1280	$3,350	$2.62	43d	1	0.79mi
4292 Comet Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,950	$2.36	24d	1	0.82mi
5016 Paseo Padre Pkwy Fremont, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	719	$3,150	$4.38	1d	10	0.83mi
34077 Paseo Padre Pkwy Fremont, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	788	$2,887	$3.66	1d	13	0.90mi
32468 Deborah Dr Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1340	$3,949	$2.95	24d	1	0.99mi
4910 Lowry Rd Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1129	$3,500	$3.10	43d	1	1.06mi
34426 Bentley Pl Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1290	$3,500	$2.71	20d	1	1.07mi
4739 Louise Ln Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1320	$4,000	$3.03	43d	1	1.15mi
34141 Gannon Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1324	$4,000	$3.02	1d	1	1.17mi
34573 Falls Ter Fremont, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,000	$3.00	12d	1	1.19mi
2262 Eric Ct #4 Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1003	$3,400	$3.39	3d	1	1.19mi
34132 Spezia Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	3.5	1481	$3,900	$2.63	18d	1	1.22mi
34130 Lugano Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	3.5	1701	$3,800	$2.23	43d	1	1.29mi
33411 Madelyn Ter Union City, CA	2.0	2.5	1441	$3,798	$2.64	17d	1	1.34mi
5764 Via Lugano Fremont, CA	3.0	3.5	1617	$4,100	$2.54	1d	1	1.36mi
3307 San Marco Ct Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1349	$3,900	$2.89	2d	1	1.39mi
4402 Queen Anne Dr Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1357	$4,200	$3.10	1d	1	1.43mi
2449 Almaden Blvd Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1565	$4,495	$2.87	1d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 210 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 209 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 208 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 207 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 205 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 196 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 194 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 193 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 192 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $299,000 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    Charming 2BR/2BA Home in Besaro Community! Well maintained home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with spacious living room plus family room and vaulted ceilings. Separate dining area along with extra sun room and updated kitchen with appliances included. Good-sized bedrooms, laminated flooring throughout, and indoor laundry with washer and dryer. Usable yard space with storage shed and a cozy side porch-perfect for morning coffee. Guest parking near by. Community amenities include a clubhouse with pool and spa. Conveniently located near freeways, shopping, and dining. Open House Sunday May 17th 1pm-4pm

16. 2026-04-29
    price $309,000 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    Charming 2BR/2BA Home in Besaro Community! Well maintained home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with spacious living room plus family room and vaulted ceilings. Separate dining area along with extra sun room and updated kitchen with appliances included. Good-sized bedrooms, laminated flooring throughout, and indoor laundry with washer and dryer. Usable yard space with storage shed and a cozy side porch-perfect for morning coffee. Guest parking near by. Community amenities include a clubhouse with pool and spa. Conveniently located near freeways, shopping, and dining. Open House Sunday May 17th 1pm-4pm

17. 2025-11-20
    listed $329,000 Active 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    Charming 2BR/2BA Home in Besaro Community! Well maintained home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with spacious living room plus family room and vaulted ceilings. Separate dining area along with extra sun room and updated kitchen with appliances included. Good-sized bedrooms, laminated flooring throughout, and indoor laundry with washer and dryer. Usable yard space with storage shed and a cozy side porch-perfect for morning coffee. Guest parking near by. Community amenities include a clubhouse with pool and spa. Conveniently located near freeways, shopping, and dining. Open House Sunday May 17th 1pm-4pm

18. 2019-11-06
    historical
19. 2013-05-24
    soldstatus $66,000 Sold
20. 2013-04-24
    status Pending
21. 2013-04-11
    listed $69,900 New
22. 2013-04-10
    historical
23. 2012-11-14
    price Price Change
24. 2012-08-13
    listed New
25. 2006-04-03
    soldstatus $92,500
26. 2006-03-03
    historical
27. 2005-07-04
    listed $95,000
28. 1998-08-13
    soldstatus $72,000
29. 1998-08-13
    soldstatus $72,000
30. 1998-08-04
    historical
31. 1998-04-30
    listed $79,950
32. 1998-04-30
    listed $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,470
• − Management: −$3,470
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $5,003
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,201
• After-tax cash flow: $8,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fremont Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614400
• Math proficiency: 76% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 84% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $105,489
• Composite: 72.94/100
• National rank: #191
• State rank: #23 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fremont

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #561

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fremont, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 228,297
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,501
• Household income: $219,938
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Asian (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 73% White 13% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Armenian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 53% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · Chinese 19% Other Indo-European 18% Other Asian/Pacific 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1033.77%
• Current HPI: 366.987
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+274.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $299,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $309,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-20 Listed $329,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2019-11-06 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2013-05-24 Sold (MLS) $66,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2013-04-24 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2013-04-11 Listed $69,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2013-04-10 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2012-11-14 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2012-08-13 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2006-04-03 Sold (MLS) $92,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2006-03-03 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2005-07-04 Listed $95,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-08-13 Sold (MLS) $72,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-08-13 Sold (MLS) $72,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-08-04 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-04-30 Listed $72,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-04-30 Listed $79,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR