17418 Carlozzi Dr · Soulsbyville, CA 95372

$264,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,291 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1968 0.34 ac lot Est $356k · 26% under $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price improved! Come check out this home full of opportunity. With plenty of parking, (more than meets the eye!) this home is a perfect starter, downsizer or investment. With 3 bedrooms and 1 1/2 baths, the layout of the home has one of the bedrooms on the lower level. The main interior has gorgeous open beam ceilings and a classic A-Frame style. The open kitchen and living space look out the vast windows to the view off the deck. A bedrooom and spacious full bath are on this level, with a walk-in shower. Upstairs, you'll find a large loft with storage and a half bath. The home is equipped with central heat and air, a mini split system, woodstove, and evaporative cooler for plenty of heating and cooling options. In the yard you will find a fully enclosed dog run. The tiered rear yard is ready for the gardener's touch with planting beds. C

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Dedicated workspace
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• MULTI-LEVEL MOUNTAIN HOME
• VAULTED PINE CEILINGS
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• FLEXIBLE THREE-LEVEL LAYOUT
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• DEDICATED WORKSPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located at 17418 Carlozzi Dr, Soulsbyville, CA 95372; Subdivision: Willow Spgs Ranch 02; Directions: From CA-108, take Soulsbyville Rd, turn left on Caylor Rd, then left on Carlozzi Dr
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with a monthly fee of $16; No association amenities listed; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Guest parking available; Paved driveway and sidewalks
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane available; Internet available; 220 volts in kitchen and laundry
• Home design: Detached single-family residence (custom, flat); Originally built in 1968; Three stories (levels described as two and three or more); Street entrance
• Construction: Shingle/composition roof; Original condition
• Exterior features: Balcony; Partial fencing; Garden area; Irregular-shaped lot; Shed(s) on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry closet; Kitchen/family combination; Laminate countertops; Free‑standing electric range; Hood over range; Microwave; Free‑standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (floor levels include main, lower and upper; upper includes loft and partial bath) ; Master bedroom with closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with shower stall; One partial bathroom; Other bath features include tub with shower over and shower stall
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Floor furnace; Gas heating; Wood stove; Multiple heating/cooling units; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral and open beam ceilings; Living room fireplace; Front porch, back porch and uncovered deck; Loft and great room living area; View from living area; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room/area; Washer and dryer included; Electric laundry (220 volts available)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $264k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#731 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Soulsbyville Elementary (town): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #272 of 517 in CA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,998 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.62%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $356,316
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17270 Kelleher Ct	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,162 (-10%)	4mo	$275,000	$237	70
20636 Willow Springs Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,432 (+11%)	5mo	$462,525	$323	64
20619 Caylor Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+12%)	10mo	$462,000	$321	59
20574 Tanner Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+14%)	1mo	$420,000	$285	58
17000 Wagon Wheel	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,322 (+2%)	6mo	$330,000	$250	58
20568 Charlotte Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,148 (-11%)	4mo	$305,000	$266	56
17485 Livermore Ct	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,356 (+5%)	13mo	$386,115	$285	56
20584 W Willow Springs Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (+14%)	0mo	$360,000	$244	56
20569 Charlotte Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-11%)	6mo	$379,000	$329	56
20485 Soulsbyville Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,460 (+13%)	1mo	$379,900	$260	52
16986 Oaktree Ln	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,296 (+0%)	12mo	$325,000	$251	49
20508 Tracy Ct	0.39mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,132 (-12%)	11mo	$312,375	$276	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $8,759
• Equity at exit: $83,254

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $62,674
• Equity at exit: $105,503

Cash invested: $73,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95372

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,164/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,246

Max offer price $264,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,000
• Closing costs: $7,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20381 Sherry Ct Unit A Soulsbyville, CA	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,195	$1.50	23d	1	0.52mi
21593 Crystal Falls Dr Sonora, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,950	$2.36	23d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $264,000 Pending 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $264,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $264,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $264,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $264,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $264,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,000 Active 28 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $264,000 Active 27 DOM
18. 2022-11-10
    soldstatus $285,000
19. 2022-11-09
    soldstatus $280,000 850-char remark

    Show marketing remark (850 chars)

    Price improved! Come check out this home full of opportunity. With plenty of parking, (more than meets the eye!) this home is a perfect starter, downsizer or investment. With 3 bedrooms and 1 1/2 baths, the layout of the home has one of the bedrooms on the lower level. The main interior has gorgeous open beam ceilings and a classic A-Frame style. The open kitchen and living space look out the vast windows to the view off the deck. A bedrooom and spacious full bath are on this level, with a walk-in shower. Upstairs, you'll find a large loft with storage and a half bath. The home is equipped with central heat and air, a mini split system, woodstove, and evaporative cooler for plenty of heating and cooling options. In the yard you will find a fully enclosed dog run. The tiered rear yard is ready for the gardener's touch with planting beds. C

20. 2022-06-29
    listed $296,000 850-char remark

    Show marketing remark (850 chars)

    Price improved! Come check out this home full of opportunity. With plenty of parking, (more than meets the eye!) this home is a perfect starter, downsizer or investment. With 3 bedrooms and 1 1/2 baths, the layout of the home has one of the bedrooms on the lower level. The main interior has gorgeous open beam ceilings and a classic A-Frame style. The open kitchen and living space look out the vast windows to the view off the deck. A bedrooom and spacious full bath are on this level, with a walk-in shower. Upstairs, you'll find a large loft with storage and a half bath. The home is equipped with central heat and air, a mini split system, woodstove, and evaporative cooler for plenty of heating and cooling options. In the yard you will find a fully enclosed dog run. The tiered rear yard is ready for the gardener's touch with planting beds. C

21. 2019-01-31
    soldstatus $195,000
22. 2019-01-31
    soldstatus $190,000
23. 2018-09-27
    listed $210,000
24. 1994-02-02
    soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,164 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,164 · $264/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,788
• − Property taxes: −$3,164
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,352
• − Management: −$2,352
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$7,680
• Taxable loss: −$2,449
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$588
• After-tax cash flow: $2,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Soulsbyville Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637320
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,518
• Composite: 30.5/100
• National rank: #6217
• State rank: #272 of 517 in CA

Livability — Soulsbyville

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #731
• US rank: #21555

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Soulsbyville, CA
• City population: 1,825
• Population (ZIP): 1,825

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Russian 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.49%
• Current HPI: 101.5849
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+313.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2022-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-09 Sold (MLS) $280,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-06-29 Listed $296,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2019-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-31 Sold (MLS) $195,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-09-27 Listed $210,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1994-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,164 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.