212 Harrington Dr N · Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ 08721

$200,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,034 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1974 5,662 sqft lot Est $282k · 29% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MONTEREY WITH LARGE PORCH ENCLOSURE OVERLOOKING BEAUTIFUL LAKE. VINYL INSULATED WINDOWS, NEWER ROOF, PULL DOWN STAIRS TO ATTIC IN HALL, NEWER CARPETS. VACANT & READY FOR QUICK OCCUPANCY. COMBO LIVINGROOM/DININGROOM. PLEASE LEAVE CARDS.

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with pool and clubhouse; Quarterly association fee of $150; HOA covers lawn maintenance and pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: MONTEREY; Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Pond on the property (waterfront)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (includes standard fixtures)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water and baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vinyl and tile flooring; No fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $443 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.2% in Holiday City-Berkeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $163k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.49%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $282,282
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Palmetto Point St	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,034 (0%)	2mo	$325,000	$314	69
178 Charlotteville Dr S	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,124 (+9%)	2mo	$359,000	$319	67
1130 Dell St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	988 (-4%)	1mo	$430,000	$435	63
37 Oranjestad St	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,124 (+9%)	2mo	$242,500	$216	63
18 Saint David Dr	0.39mi	2/1.0	1,124 (+9%)	1mo	$305,000	$271	63
17 Palmetto Point St	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,092 (+6%)	2mo	$382,500	$350	60
63 Brakenbury Dr	0.62mi	2/1.0	971 (-6%)	2mo	$265,000	$273	56
106 Fort De France Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,124 (+9%)	2mo	$241,000	$214	53
22 Down Ct	0.60mi	2/1.5	1,140 (+10%)	2mo	$330,000	$289	52
32 Bonaire Dr	0.63mi	2/1.0	1,124 (+9%)	1mo	$240,100	$214	51
23 Barbados Dr S	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,124 (+9%)	1mo	$200,000	$178	47
843 N Edgebrook Dr N	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,122 (+8%)	2mo	$294,000	$262	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,146
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $32,931
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08721

• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,347 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,751/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $443

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,787

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
159 Fort de France Ave Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,475	$1.72	6d	1	0.73mi
2 York St Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1105	$2,200	$1.99	1d	1	0.76mi
59 Guadeloupe Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1126	$2,300	$2.04	1d	1	0.82mi
510 Jamaica Blvd Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,500	$1.98	1d	1	0.93mi
10 Purnell St Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1232	$2,300	$1.87	1d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 239-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 185-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,751 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,865 · $322/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,115/yr (+$93/mo · 40.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,751
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,253
• − Management: −$2,253
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $2,288
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$549
• After-tax cash flow: $4,766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Holiday City-Berkeley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ
• City population: 35,652
• Population (ZIP): 22,464

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -320.09%
• Current HPI: 346.8393
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+150.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $200,000 MOMLS
• 2005-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $163,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 1999-05-25 Sold (MLS) $74,000 MOMLS
• 1999-03-26 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1999-03-11 Listed $79,900 MOMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,751 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.