3121 Middletown Rd Unit 8J · New York, NY 10461

$199,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 700 sqft · Condo · 100 Days on market

Built 1980 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 1 bedroom apt all renovated with dishwasher

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1980
• Listed 99 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; Carport present
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Stock cooperative; Entry level: 8
• Construction: Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Gas range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms (entry level on level 8)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Other heating
• Interior features: Stone counters; Common basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-370 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $181k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.97%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-42,515
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,092
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10461

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 8.0%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$901
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,881

Max offer price $145,423

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-233	-5% $-301	+0% $-370	+5% $-439	+10% $-508
Rent	-10% $-561	-5% $-466	+0% $-370	+5% $-275	+10% $-180
Rate	-1.0pp $-270	-0.5pp $-320	base $-370	+0.5pp $-422	+1.0pp $-474

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1250 Pelham Pkwy S Unit B Bronx, NY	1.0	1.0	725	$2,850	$3.93	25d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-03-19
    listed $199,000 Active
14. 2026-03-08
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,316
• − Management: −$2,316
• − HOA: −$10,812
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$7,409
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,778
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 1-bedroom apartment is in good condition with recent renovations, making it a solid investment opportunity. Consider painting the exterior and interior for a fresh look.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics, attracting more buyers and renters
• Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can modernize the kitchen and make it more appealing to potential buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics, attracting more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can modernize the kitchen and make it more appealing to potential buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 52,012
• Household income: $67,028
• Rent vs Own: 70.3% rent · 29.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4430.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 30% Asian 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 20% Cuban 1% Dominican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Indo-European 13% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.06%
• Current HPI: 266.5457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.99%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $199,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2026-03-08 Listed $199,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid