529 Don Ln · Itasca, TX 76055

$187,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 205 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 5,663 sqft lot $117/sqft · 12% below area Est $213k · 12% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21130161 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades The Everglades Plan from our Freedom Series offers an ideal blend of space, functionality, and value. This charming 2-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,600 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Step into the welcoming entryway, where you’ll find a convenient half bathroom and the staircase leading to the upper level. Continue down the hall past the laundry room and into the open-concept living area. The kitchen, complete with a central island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating a perfect space for meals. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with its own bathroom. Three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom complete the upper level, providing ample space for family or guests.

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $188k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($739/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Itasca El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 295 students, 74% FRL); Itasca Middle (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 164 students, 62% FRL); Itasca H S (math 15% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,106 of 1,632 statewide, top 68%, 192 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 140d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $165,431 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.40%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,426
• List price: $187,990
• Delta: -11.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
503 Don Ln	0.01mi	4/2.5	1,600 (0%)	2mo	$199,990	$125	98
515 Don Ln	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,600 (0%)	1mo	$199,990	$125	96
104 Beard Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,562 (-2%)	6mo	$130,000	$83	75
525 Don Ln	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,401 (-12%)	2mo	$199,990	$143	75
507 Don Ln	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,802 (+13%)	2mo	$209,990	$117	73
605 S Files St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (+4%)	7mo	$224,900	$135	70
512 Don Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (-6%)	12mo	$249,900	$166	69
604 E South St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (-4%)	6mo	$249,999	$163	64
526 Don Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,401 (-12%)	13mo	$182,990	$131	60
205 E South St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,462 (-9%)	11mo	$219,900	$150	55
105 E North St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-6%)	5mo	$158,000	$105	47
705 E South St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (-11%)	13mo	$214,900	$150	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $106,330
• Equity at exit: $169,356

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.89×
• Total profit: $310,094
• Equity at exit: $365,223

Cash invested: $52,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.6 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $189,950 ($137/sqft)
• Median days on market: 108 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76055

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,722 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$235 /mo · $2,820/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,645

Max offer price $187,990

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $127	+0% $62	+5% $-3	+10% $-68
Rent	-10% $-75	-5% $-6	+0% $62	+5% $130	+10% $198
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $109	base $62	+0.5pp $13	+1.0pp $-37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,998
• Closing costs: $5,640
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Minnie Dr Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,775	$1.42	139d	1	0.35mi
202 E Henderson St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,750	$1.18	73d	1	0.36mi
108 E Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,650	$1.39	139d	1	0.43mi
106 W Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,650	$1.41	139d	1	0.50mi
501 E Monroe St Itasca, TX	3.0	1.0	1642	$1,750	$1.07	0d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $187,990 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $187,990 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $187,990 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $187,990 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $187,990 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $187,990 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $187,990 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $187,990 Active 196 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $187,990 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $187,990 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $187,990 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $187,990 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $187,990 Active 186 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $187,990 Active 185 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $187,990 Active 184 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $187,990 Active 183 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $187,990 Active 179 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $187,990 Active 178 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $187,990 Active 177 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $187,990 Active 176 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $187,990 Active 175 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $187,990 Active 174 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $187,990 Active 173 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $187,990 Active 172 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $187,990 Active 171 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    pricestatus $187,990 Active 170 DOM
27. 2026-07-27
    price $200,990 Pending 170 DOM
28. 2026-05-14
    price $209,990 855-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades

29. 2026-05-14
    price $209,990 28-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades

30. 2026-04-03
    price $226,990 855-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades

31. 2026-04-03
    price $226,990 28-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades

32. 2026-03-31
    price $222,990 855-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades

33. 2026-03-31
    price $222,990 28-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades

34. 2026-03-31
    price $223,990 28-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades

35. 2025-12-12
    price $222,211 28-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades

36. 2025-12-11
    price $442,201 28-char remark

    Show marketing remark (28 chars)

    Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades

37. 2025-12-10
    listed $222,211 Active 28-char remark

    Show marketing remark (855 chars)

    MLS# 21130161 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades The Everglades Plan from our Freedom Series offers an ideal blend of space, functionality, and value. This charming 2-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,600 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Step into the welcoming entryway, where you’ll find a convenient half bathroom and the staircase leading to the upper level. Continue down the hall past the laundry room and into the open-concept living area. The kitchen, complete with a central island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating a perfect space for meals. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with its own bathroom. Three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom complete the upper level, providing ample space for family or guests.

38. 2025-12-10
    listed $222,211 Active 855-char remark

    Show marketing remark (855 chars)

    MLS# 21130161 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600-1 A1 - Everglades The Everglades Plan from our Freedom Series offers an ideal blend of space, functionality, and value. This charming 2-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,600 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Step into the welcoming entryway, where you’ll find a convenient half bathroom and the staircase leading to the upper level. Continue down the hall past the laundry room and into the open-concept living area. The kitchen, complete with a central island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating a perfect space for meals. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with its own bathroom. Three additional bedrooms and a full bathroom complete the upper level, providing ample space for family or guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,530
• − Property taxes: −$2,820
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,654
• − Management: −$1,654
• − Depreciation: −$5,469
• Taxable loss: −$2,397
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$575
• After-tax cash flow: $1,314/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a modern and well-maintained living space with potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bedrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 29/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Itasca El F TX #3,052/4,322 Nat'l #30,133/41,679 Middle Itasca Middle F TX #971/1,662 Nat'l #8,317/14,009 High Itasca H S F TX #1,106/1,632 Nat'l #11,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Itasca ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824480
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,224
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #7499
• State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Itasca

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #14977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Itasca, TX
• County: Hill · 34,013 people
• City population: 3,719
• Population (ZIP): 3,719
• Household income: $77,627
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.37%
• Current HPI: 264.5221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $209,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $209,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $226,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $226,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $222,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $222,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $223,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $222,211 Zillow
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $442,201 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Listed $222,211 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Listed $222,211 NTREIS