202 N Gregory St · Gregory, TX 78359

$89,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,112 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1930 9,750 sqft lot $80/sqft · 47% below area Est $169k · 47% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment flip or buy and hold! Rooms are nice size. Detached garage also has shop in the back with bathroom all needs work but great space. Walking distance to GPISD Elementary School.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Next to post office
• Decking replaced

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• ROOF REPLACED
• DECKING REPLACED
• NEXT TO ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
• NEXT TO POST OFFICE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 covered parking spaces (garage)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Utilities available
• Home design: Single-story home; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Shingle roof; Rock and wood siding construction
• Construction: Built with rock and wood siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No notable interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $405 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#248 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Gregory-Portland ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #314 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,665 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.50%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,469
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: -47.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
303 Avenue B	0.23mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,064 (-4%)	1mo	$55,000	$52	74
302 Dogwood St	0.24mi	2/1.0	980 (-12%)	4mo	$150,000	$153	66
114 Carole Dr	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,146 (+3%)	11mo	$189,900	$166	60
304 Franklin	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,076 (-3%)	22mo	$135,000	$125	55
328 Allison St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,238 (+11%)	17mo	$65,000	$53	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $36,559
• Equity at exit: $40,018

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.78×
• Total profit: $94,092
• Equity at exit: $61,673

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78359

• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,355 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,943/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $843

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 2nd St Gregory, TX	2.0	1.0	816	$1,400	$1.72	13d	1	0.20mi
501 N Gregory Gregory, TX	2.0	1.0	820	$1,350	$1.65	43d	1	0.24mi
306 Allison Gregory, TX	3.0	1.0	768	$1,250	$1.63	13d	1	0.50mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $89,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-04-29
   listed $89,000 Active 392-char remark
6. 2022-07-29
   historical 193-char remark

   Show marketing remark (193 chars)

   Great investment flip or buy and hold! Rooms are nice size. Detached garage also has shop in the back with bathroom all needs work but great space. Walking distance to GPISD Elementary School.

7. 2022-07-28
   soldstatus Closed 193-char remark

   Show marketing remark (193 chars)

   Great investment flip or buy and hold! Rooms are nice size. Detached garage also has shop in the back with bathroom all needs work but great space. Walking distance to GPISD Elementary School.

8. 2022-07-19
   status Pending 193-char remark

   Show marketing remark (193 chars)

   Great investment flip or buy and hold! Rooms are nice size. Detached garage also has shop in the back with bathroom all needs work but great space. Walking distance to GPISD Elementary School.

9. 2022-06-30
   price $64,900 193-char remark

   Show marketing remark (193 chars)

   Great investment flip or buy and hold! Rooms are nice size. Detached garage also has shop in the back with bathroom all needs work but great space. Walking distance to GPISD Elementary School.

10. 2022-06-15
    status Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Great investment flip or buy and hold! Rooms are nice size. Detached garage also has shop in the back with bathroom all needs work but great space. Walking distance to GPISD Elementary School.

11. 2022-06-07
    historical Active Under Contract 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Great investment flip or buy and hold! Rooms are nice size. Detached garage also has shop in the back with bathroom all needs work but great space. Walking distance to GPISD Elementary School.

12. 2022-05-12
    listed $79,900 Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Great investment flip or buy and hold! Rooms are nice size. Detached garage also has shop in the back with bathroom all needs work but great space. Walking distance to GPISD Elementary School.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,943 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,943 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,943
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,301
• − Management: −$1,301
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $3,698
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$887
• After-tax cash flow: $3,971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gregory-Portland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821780
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $59,135
• Composite: 36.62/100
• National rank: #4622
• State rank: #314 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gregory

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #248
• US rank: #5908

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gregory, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,230

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 38% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 92%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Relisted — CBMLS
• 2026-05-21 Pending — CBMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $89,000 CBMLS
• 2022-07-29 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2022-07-28 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2022-07-19 Pending — CBMLS
• 2022-06-30 Price Changed $64,900 CBMLS
• 2022-06-15 Relisted — CBMLS
• 2022-06-07 Contingent — CBMLS
• 2022-05-12 Listed $79,900 CBMLS

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,943 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.