2016 Hemstreet Rd · Billington Heights, NY 14052

$44,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1989

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Modern Comfort in Hillside Estates $5k price reduction! Motivated Seller! Iroquois School District | 2 Bed, 2 Bath Experience a beautifully maintained, vinyl sided 1989-built home with metal roof that offers the perfect blend of modern updates and cozy charm. Located in the desirable Hillside Estates of East Aurora/Marilla, this home features actual drywall throughout and an open-concept layout that feels solid and spacious. Home Highlights: Bright & Airy Living: Vaulted ceilings and a classic brick fireplace anchor the living area, while ceiling fans and abundant natural light enhance the open feel. Fully Equipped Kitchen: Features fresh white cabinetry, bountiful storage, and a

Key facts

• Built 1989
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease of $650

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Single-story; Resale property; Metal roof; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Metal roof; Single-wide body type
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Country kitchen; Kitchen open to family room; Living/Dining room combo; Main level primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $977 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#872 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Iroquois Central School District (rural): math 57% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #178 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $44,226 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 93.27%
• DSCR: 5.15
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 94.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.37×
• Total profit: $54,982
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 96.9%
• Equity multiple: 11.19×
• Total profit: $128,113
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14052

• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,630 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $674/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $977

Break-even live

Break-even rent $393

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-12
   price $44,900
3. 2026-04-30
   listed $49,900 Active
4. 2016-03-03
   historical
5. 2015-09-02
   listed $15,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$674
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,564
• − Management: −$1,564
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $11,707
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,810
• After-tax cash flow: $8,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Iroquois Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615360
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $74,111
• Composite: 55.41/100
• National rank: #1251
• State rank: #178 of 590 in NY

Livability — Billington Heights

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #872
• US rank: #16864

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,501

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Arabic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.44%
• Current HPI: 327.8237
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+199.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $44,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $49,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-03-03 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2015-09-02 Listed $15,000 WNYREIS