2501 Copperhead Rd · Midland, TX 79705

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2024 6,838 sqft lot $38/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful 2024-built home in the highly desirable Mockingbird Ridge subdivision! Situated on a corner lot, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,860 sq. ft. of modern living space with thoughtful upgrades throughout. Enjoy your own backyard oasis featuring a luxury above-ground pool, extended covered patio, side double gate access, and a storage shed for added convenience. Additional upgrades include a water softener and reverse osmosis system. Move-in ready and designed for both comfort and entertaining, this home is one you won't want to miss!

Key facts

• Backyard oasis
• Storage shed
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• BACKYARD OASIS
• LUXURY ABOVE-GROUND POOL
• EXTENDED COVERED PATIO
• SIDE DOUBLE GATE ACCESS
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $450 (about $37.50/month)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 covered spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane available
• Home design: Residential single-family home
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built with solar (solar energy system)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Above-ground private pool; Landscaped corner lot; Paved road access; Workshop (outbuilding)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Blinds; Water softener (owned); Water purifier (owned); No fireplace listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-282/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: General Tommy Franks El (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 825 students, 38% FRL); Goddard J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,024 students, 58% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $258,546 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-53,708
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-53,448
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79705

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,585 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,938/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,615

Max offer price $310,851

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $66	+0% $-23	+5% $-113	+10% $-202
Rent	-10% $-228	-5% $-126	+0% $-23	+5% $79	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $57	base $-23	+0.5pp $-105	+1.0pp $-188

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2716 River Bend Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1517	$2,600	$1.71	45d	1	0.12mi
5920 Woodpecker Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1669	$3,800	$2.28	45d	1	0.13mi
2808 Lighthouse Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1168	$2,300	$1.97	45d	1	0.18mi
5817 Settler Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,600	$1.83	45d	1	0.19mi
2808 Longfellow Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,400	$1.69	22d	1	0.27mi
5917 Praline St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$2,500	$2.00	22d	1	0.31mi
6011 Purtis Creek Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1722	$2,900	$1.68	45d	1	0.32mi
2908 Yellowhouse Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,650	$1.75	22d	1	0.35mi
2912 Pitchfork Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1119	$2,100	$1.88	22d	1	0.35mi
6109 Buckthorn Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$2,900	$1.75	22d	1	0.38mi
2944 Hidalgo Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1689	$3,800	$2.25	45d	1	0.42mi
6105 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,700	$1.90	45d	1	0.47mi
6220 Kingsville St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1312	$2,400	$1.83	15d	1	0.53mi
6333 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,500	$1.85	22d	1	0.55mi
2703 Ranch Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,350	$1.42	22d	1	0.78mi
2702 Southwest St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,500	$1.36	45d	1	0.91mi
1513 San Miguel Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,400	$1.30	15d	1	1.05mi
1507 Laguna Meadows Trl Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,600	$1.53	45d	1	1.06mi
2409 Husk St Unit 1 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,000	$1.67	15d	1	1.08mi
1412 Mockingbird Ln Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$2,635	$2.75	15d	22	1.08mi
1500 Laguna Meadows Trl Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,500	$1.34	22d	1	1.10mi
1708 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1694	$2,550	$1.51	45d	1	1.10mi
1704 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,500	$1.67	22d	1	1.12mi
1621 Revolution Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	45d	1	1.19mi
6809 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$2,500	$1.71	15d	1	1.19mi
6812 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	15d	1	1.20mi
1508 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,250	$1.43	15d	1	1.22mi
1307 Santa Clara Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,900	$1.70	46d	1	1.23mi
1310 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,400	$1.73	22d	1	1.30mi
6309 Ojibwa Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,150	$1.65	22d	1	1.32mi
1115 Overshine Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1867	$2,600	$1.39	15d	1	1.40mi
6706 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,800	$1.54	45d	1	1.41mi
110 Pavilion Pkwy Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$2,224	$2.26	15d	19	1.47mi
1315 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,600	$1.62	15d	1	1.48mi
6717 Brand Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	22d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $315,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $315,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $315,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $315,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $345,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $345,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $345,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $345,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful 2024-built home in the highly desirable Mockingbird Ridge subdivision! Situated on a corner lot, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,860 sq. ft. of modern living space with thoughtful upgrades throughout. Enjoy your own backyard oasis featuring a luxury above-ground pool, extended covered patio, side double gate access, and a storage shed for added convenience. Additional upgrades include a water softener and reverse osmosis system. Move-in ready and designed for both comfort and entertaining, this home is one you won't want to miss!

14. 2026-06-03
    listed $345,000 Active 1 DOM

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful 2024-built home in the highly desirable Mockingbird Ridge subdivision! Situated on a corner lot, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,860 sq. ft. of modern living space with thoughtful upgrades throughout. Enjoy your own backyard oasis featuring a luxury above-ground pool, extended covered patio, side double gate access, and a storage shed for added convenience. Additional upgrades include a water softener and reverse osmosis system. Move-in ready and designed for both comfort and entertaining, this home is one you won't want to miss!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,938 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,764 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,826/yr (+$236/mo · 96.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,938
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,482
• − Management: −$2,482
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$5,716
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,372
• After-tax cash flow: $1,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,653
• Household income: $105,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 20% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.44%
• Current HPI: 207.2904
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $345,000 ODMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $345,000 PBBOR