10449 Castleton St · Houston, TX 77016

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,155 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1958 7,080 sqft lot Est $146k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offering the perfect blend of comfort and practicality. This inviting residence features a functional floor plan with spacious living areas, a well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space, and generously sized bedrooms designed for everyday living. Step outside to a large backyard, ideal for entertaining guests, weekend barbecues, or simply enjoying the outdoors. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, looking to downsize, or searching for a great investment opportunity, this home offers exceptional value and is ready for its next chapter.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• 7,080 sq ft lot
• Built 1958

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all principal rooms on first floor)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1958; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 10 x 15); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 10 x 11); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 10 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($145/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,626 (5.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.30%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,530
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10329 Wicklowe St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,194 (+3%)	2mo	$149,000	$125	78
10214 Bretton Dr	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,126 (-2%)	3mo	$125,000	$111	78
10414 Onslow St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,212 (+5%)	3mo	$199,500	$165	78
6015 Langley Rd	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,245 (+8%)	2mo	$95,000	$76	72
10437 Barnham St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,188 (+3%)	7mo	$50,000	$42	70
10317 Kelburn Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,107 (-4%)	2mo	$175,000	$158	70
10338 Castleton St	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,281 (+11%)	8mo	$135,000	$105	68
7261 Boggess Rd	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (+2%)	1mo	$110,000	$94	61
7234 Boggess Rd	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,236 (+7%)	1mo	$168,000	$136	59
10507 Royal Oaks Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,311 (+14%)	2mo	$215,000	$164	54
5702 Yorkwood St	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,312 (+14%)	2mo	$165,000	$126	53
7321 Wiley Rd	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,262 (+9%)	2mo	$179,900	$143	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $76,125
• Equity at exit: $140,748

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.35×
• Total profit: $213,320
• Equity at exit: $287,166

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,646 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,574/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,631

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	21d	1	0.25mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	24d	1	0.30mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	14d	1	0.58mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	44d	1	0.65mi
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	44d	1	0.73mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 222 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$700	$0.71	44d	1	0.94mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$740	$0.75	44d	1	0.94mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	44d	1	0.94mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	19d	1	1.04mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	8d	1	1.13mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,782	$2.53	8d	1	1.18mi
9422 Sandra St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,875	$1.28	44d	1	1.18mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	1.25mi
6822 Leedale St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$1,500	$1.53	44d	1	1.40mi
4419 Trigg St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,145	$1.31	44d	1	1.46mi
4419 Trigg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,199	$1.38	7d	1	1.46mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	5d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Pending 10 DOM
3. 2026-05-21
   listed $175,000 Active
4. 2002-08-22
   soldstatus
5. 1990-10-29
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,574 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,574 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,755
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,574
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,580
• − Management: −$1,580
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,749
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$660
• After-tax cash flow: $804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2002-08-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,574 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.