107 Ash Dr · Ruidoso, NM 88345

$79,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · Other public records · 230 Days on market

Built 1982 6,534 sqft lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

107 Ash Dr - Opportunity knocks! This 2BR/2BA mountain cabin in Ponderosa Heights offers level access, wood accents, and covered/uncovered decks. Property has experienced flooding and is located in a flood plain--being sold as-is and priced accordingly. Needs repair but has potential for restoration or investment. Features include metal roof, wood stove, storage/shop area, and 1,020 sq ft of living space on a 0.14-acre lot. Utilities connected. No HOA fees. Cash offers preferred

Key facts

• Covered decks
• Mountain cabin
• Metal roof

Tags

• MOUNTAIN CABIN
• LEVEL ACCESS
• WOOD ACCENTS
• COVERED DECKS
• UNCOVERED DECKS
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $807 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#40 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Ruidoso Municipal Schools (town): math 16% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 29 in NM (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 593 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 92 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.37%
• DSCR: 3.11
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $38,631
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $100,021
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88345

• Active inventory: 593
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,772 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $954/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $807

Break-even live

Break-even rent $751

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
402 4th St Ruidoso, NM	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,200	$2.04	43d	1	0.84mi
108 Apache Hills Dr Unit A heuristic Ruidoso, NM	2.0	1.0	726	$1,200	$1.65	24d	1	1.06mi
106 Apache Hills Dr Unit A Ruidoso, NM	2.0	1.0	726	$1,200	$1.65	43d	1	1.07mi
107 Niblic Ct Ruidoso, NM	3.0	2.5	1363	$2,200	$1.61	43d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,000 Active 230 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 229 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 228 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 227 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 226 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,000 Active 224 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,000 Active 223 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 220 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 219 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 218 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,000 Active 214 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 213 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 212 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 211 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 210 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    status Active 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    107 Ash Dr - Opportunity knocks! This 2BR/2BA mountain cabin in Ponderosa Heights offers level access, wood accents, and covered/uncovered decks. Property has experienced flooding and is located in a flood plain--being sold as-is and priced accordingly. Needs repair but has potential for restoration or investment. Features include metal roof, wood stove, storage/shop area, and 1,020 sq ft of living space on a 0.14-acre lot. Utilities connected. No HOA fees. Cash offers preferred

17. 2026-04-01
    historical 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    107 Ash Dr - Opportunity knocks! This 2BR/2BA mountain cabin in Ponderosa Heights offers level access, wood accents, and covered/uncovered decks. Property has experienced flooding and is located in a flood plain--being sold as-is and priced accordingly. Needs repair but has potential for restoration or investment. Features include metal roof, wood stove, storage/shop area, and 1,020 sq ft of living space on a 0.14-acre lot. Utilities connected. No HOA fees. Cash offers preferred

18. 2026-03-06
    price $79,000 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    107 Ash Dr - Opportunity knocks! This 2BR/2BA mountain cabin in Ponderosa Heights offers level access, wood accents, and covered/uncovered decks. Property has experienced flooding and is located in a flood plain--being sold as-is and priced accordingly. Needs repair but has potential for restoration or investment. Features include metal roof, wood stove, storage/shop area, and 1,020 sq ft of living space on a 0.14-acre lot. Utilities connected. No HOA fees. Cash offers preferred

19. 2026-02-14
    price $90,000 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    107 Ash Dr - Opportunity knocks! This 2BR/2BA mountain cabin in Ponderosa Heights offers level access, wood accents, and covered/uncovered decks. Property has experienced flooding and is located in a flood plain--being sold as-is and priced accordingly. Needs repair but has potential for restoration or investment. Features include metal roof, wood stove, storage/shop area, and 1,020 sq ft of living space on a 0.14-acre lot. Utilities connected. No HOA fees. Cash offers preferred

20. 2026-02-05
    status Active 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    107 Ash Dr - Opportunity knocks! This 2BR/2BA mountain cabin in Ponderosa Heights offers level access, wood accents, and covered/uncovered decks. Property has experienced flooding and is located in a flood plain--being sold as-is and priced accordingly. Needs repair but has potential for restoration or investment. Features include metal roof, wood stove, storage/shop area, and 1,020 sq ft of living space on a 0.14-acre lot. Utilities connected. No HOA fees. Cash offers preferred

21. 2026-02-01
    historical 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    107 Ash Dr - Opportunity knocks! This 2BR/2BA mountain cabin in Ponderosa Heights offers level access, wood accents, and covered/uncovered decks. Property has experienced flooding and is located in a flood plain--being sold as-is and priced accordingly. Needs repair but has potential for restoration or investment. Features include metal roof, wood stove, storage/shop area, and 1,020 sq ft of living space on a 0.14-acre lot. Utilities connected. No HOA fees. Cash offers preferred

22. 2025-12-30
    price $95,000 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    107 Ash Dr - Opportunity knocks! This 2BR/2BA mountain cabin in Ponderosa Heights offers level access, wood accents, and covered/uncovered decks. Property has experienced flooding and is located in a flood plain--being sold as-is and priced accordingly. Needs repair but has potential for restoration or investment. Features include metal roof, wood stove, storage/shop area, and 1,020 sq ft of living space on a 0.14-acre lot. Utilities connected. No HOA fees. Cash offers preferred

23. 2025-10-17
    listed $99,000 Active 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    107 Ash Dr - Opportunity knocks! This 2BR/2BA mountain cabin in Ponderosa Heights offers level access, wood accents, and covered/uncovered decks. Property has experienced flooding and is located in a flood plain--being sold as-is and priced accordingly. Needs repair but has potential for restoration or investment. Features include metal roof, wood stove, storage/shop area, and 1,020 sq ft of living space on a 0.14-acre lot. Utilities connected. No HOA fees. Cash offers preferred

24. 2024-08-15
    soldstatus
25. 2017-10-13
    soldstatus
26. 2015-12-31
    soldstatus
27. 2013-07-26
    soldstatus
28. 2007-09-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $954 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $954 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,263
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$954
• − Insurance: −$1,192
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,701
• − Management: −$1,701
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $8,991
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,158
• After-tax cash flow: $7,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ruidoso Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502310
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $44,094
• Composite: 31.68/100
• National rank: #5925
• State rank: #14 of 29 in NM

Livability — Ruidoso

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #11996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ruidoso, NM
• County: Lincoln County · 7,835 people
• City population: 7,835
• Metro: Ruidoso, NM
• Population (ZIP): 7,835
• Household income: $53,971
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,903 people
• By 2030: 15,556 · -8.0%
• By 2040: 13,064 · -22.7%
• By 2050: 10,991 · -35.0%
• By 2075: 7,619 · -54.9%
• By 2100: 5,966 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Native American 1% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.5) · D 29.8% · R 68.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -25.4pp · 2024: -38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.5 2020: R+36.4 2016: R+40.2 2012: R+32.7 2008: R+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.17%
• Current HPI: 141.9549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ruidoso, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-20.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Relisted — RLCAR
• 2026-04-01 Delisted — RLCAR
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $79,000 RLCAR
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $90,000 RLCAR
• 2026-02-05 Relisted — RLCAR
• 2026-02-01 Delisted — RLCAR
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $95,000 RLCAR
• 2025-10-17 Listed $99,000 RLCAR
• 2024-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-10-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-12-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-07-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $954 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.