164 Ash Dr · Denison, TX 75020

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,365 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 339 Days on market

Built 1971 10,019 sqft lot $116/sqft · 24% below area Est $249k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 164 Ash Dr, Denison, TX. 75020. Just minutes from the Denison Dam and the sparkling shores of Lake Texoma, and just 15 minutes from Choctaw Casino and Resort this diamond in the rough is ready for your vision! Nestled in a quiet neighborhood with unbeatable proximity to outdoor recreation, this fixer-upper offers the perfect opportunity to build equity and create a space that reflects your style. With a little imagination and sweat equity, this could be your next home, lake getaway, or investment property. Whether you're a first-time buyer looking for a project or an investor ready to transform potential into profit, 164 Ash Dr. is a canvas waiting for your creativity. Don't miss your chance to own in a highly desirable area near one of North Texas’s most treasured lakes!

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Lake texoma
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• LAKE TEXOMA
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• HIGHLY DESIRABLE AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.8% in Denison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#221 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Denison ISD (urban): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #315 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 485 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 339 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 339 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.61%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,839
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -36.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-19,505
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-20,878
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75020

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 485
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,618 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,482/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,401

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
58 Charlsie Dr Denison, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$1,349	$1.41	21d	1	0.35mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,000 Active 339 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 338 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 337 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $159,000 Active 336 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 336 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 335 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,000 Active 333 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 332 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,000 Active 330 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $169,000 Active 329 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,000 Active 328 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 327 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,000 Active 324 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 323 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 322 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 321 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 320 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,000 Active 319 DOM
19. 2026-02-11
    price $169,000 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Welcome to 164 Ash Dr, Denison, TX. 75020. Just minutes from the Denison Dam and the sparkling shores of Lake Texoma, and just 15 minutes from Choctaw Casino and Resort this diamond in the rough is ready for your vision! Nestled in a quiet neighborhood with unbeatable proximity to outdoor recreation, this fixer-upper offers the perfect opportunity to build equity and create a space that reflects your style. With a little imagination and sweat equity, this could be your next home, lake getaway, or investment property. Whether you're a first-time buyer looking for a project or an investor ready to transform potential into profit, 164 Ash Dr. is a canvas waiting for your creativity. Don't miss your chance to own in a highly desirable area near one of North Texas’s most treasured lakes!

20. 2025-10-08
    price $179,000 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Welcome to 164 Ash Dr, Denison, TX. 75020. Just minutes from the Denison Dam and the sparkling shores of Lake Texoma, and just 15 minutes from Choctaw Casino and Resort this diamond in the rough is ready for your vision! Nestled in a quiet neighborhood with unbeatable proximity to outdoor recreation, this fixer-upper offers the perfect opportunity to build equity and create a space that reflects your style. With a little imagination and sweat equity, this could be your next home, lake getaway, or investment property. Whether you're a first-time buyer looking for a project or an investor ready to transform potential into profit, 164 Ash Dr. is a canvas waiting for your creativity. Don't miss your chance to own in a highly desirable area near one of North Texas’s most treasured lakes!

21. 2025-07-28
    price $183,000 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Welcome to 164 Ash Dr, Denison, TX. 75020. Just minutes from the Denison Dam and the sparkling shores of Lake Texoma, and just 15 minutes from Choctaw Casino and Resort this diamond in the rough is ready for your vision! Nestled in a quiet neighborhood with unbeatable proximity to outdoor recreation, this fixer-upper offers the perfect opportunity to build equity and create a space that reflects your style. With a little imagination and sweat equity, this could be your next home, lake getaway, or investment property. Whether you're a first-time buyer looking for a project or an investor ready to transform potential into profit, 164 Ash Dr. is a canvas waiting for your creativity. Don't miss your chance to own in a highly desirable area near one of North Texas’s most treasured lakes!

22. 2025-07-15
    listed $185,000 Active 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Welcome to 164 Ash Dr, Denison, TX. 75020. Just minutes from the Denison Dam and the sparkling shores of Lake Texoma, and just 15 minutes from Choctaw Casino and Resort this diamond in the rough is ready for your vision! Nestled in a quiet neighborhood with unbeatable proximity to outdoor recreation, this fixer-upper offers the perfect opportunity to build equity and create a space that reflects your style. With a little imagination and sweat equity, this could be your next home, lake getaway, or investment property. Whether you're a first-time buyer looking for a project or an investor ready to transform potential into profit, 164 Ash Dr. is a canvas waiting for your creativity. Don't miss your chance to own in a highly desirable area near one of North Texas’s most treasured lakes!

23. 2006-08-16
    soldstatus 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Oversided lot with mature landscape. Second living area is sunroom with great view of large backyard. Buyer to verify all information. No disclosures are required.

24. 2006-07-20
    historical 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Oversided lot with mature landscape. Second living area is sunroom with great view of large backyard. Buyer to verify all information. No disclosures are required.

25. 2006-04-26
    listed $58,000 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Oversided lot with mature landscape. Second living area is sunroom with great view of large backyard. Buyer to verify all information. No disclosures are required.

26. 2003-11-11
    historical
27. 2003-08-10
    listed $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,482 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$428/yr (+$36/mo · 17.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,482
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,553
• − Management: −$1,553
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$121
• After-tax cash flow: $2,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denison ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816710
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,650
• Composite: 36.6/100
• National rank: #4629
• State rank: #315 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denison

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #5428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• City population: 34,008
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,835
• Household income: $71,605
• Rent vs Own: 41.3% rent · 58.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 997.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -295.96%
• Current HPI: 257.1806
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.05%
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+164.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $169,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $179,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $183,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-15 Listed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2006-08-16 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2006-07-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2006-04-26 Listed $58,000 NTREIS
• 2003-11-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2003-08-10 Listed $64,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,482 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.