2916 Vinyards Pkwy #3 · Branson, MO 65616

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,147 sqft · Condo public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2007 $265/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Here is your chance to own a stylish dream vacation home! Fully furnished and ready for new owners, this condo is located in a secluded area close to the strip and Silver Dollar City. Recently renovated in 2021, this property is perfect for a vacation getaway or primary residence. The pool and rocky terrain create a peaceful oasis for the new owners to enjoy! Come check it out today before it is too late! Listing agent is part owner.

Key facts

• Secluded area
• Peaceful oasis
• Recently renovated

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• SECLUDED AREA
• RECENTLY RENOVATED
• PEACEFUL OASIS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,147 (above-grade, per builder)
• HOA & community: HOA (Vinyards Pkwy) with monthly fee of $265; HOA maintains building exterior, lawn, roof repair, snow removal, and street

Exterior

• Parking: Shared driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Attached condominium; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Built approximately 11–15 years ago
• Exterior features: Not in a flood plain; Shared driveway; Lawn maintenance provided by association; Snow removal and street maintenance provided by association

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling (has cooling)
• Interior features: Basement with other/unspecified features; Open floor plan noted as 'Other' by builder

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-323/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.6% in Branson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #2,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Ridge Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 503 students, 65% FRL); Branson Jr. High (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #81 of 391 statewide, top 21%, 724 students, 51% FRL); Branson High (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #145 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,423 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1061 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,117 (3.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-32,558
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-30,796
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65616

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 1061
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,831 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,595/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$265
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,865

Max offer price $185,252

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $81	-5% $27	+0% $-27	+5% $-81	+10% $-134
Rent	-10% $-172	-5% $-99	+0% $-27	+5% $45	+10% $118
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $21	base $-27	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2907 Vineyards Pkwy #2 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,850	$1.61	45d	1	0.12mi
2905 Vineyards Pkwy #5 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,850	$1.61	45d	1	0.12mi
3515 Arlene St Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	880	$1,025	$1.16	45d	1	0.64mi
513 Lakewood Rd Branson, MO	3.0	3.0	1487	$1,750	$1.18	45d	1	1.19mi
325 Majestic Dr Branson, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	941	$1,650	$1.75	45d	2	1.22mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $265 · $3,180/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $190,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $190,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   remarks 437-char remark
8. 2026-06-15
   listed $190,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,595 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,843 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$248/yr (+$21/mo · 15.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,595
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,758
• − Management: −$1,758
• − HOA: −$3,180
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,437
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$825
• After-tax cash flow: $502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Branson R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2905760
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,473
• Composite: 41.96/100
• National rank: #3347
• State rank: #44 of 324 in MO

Livability — Branson

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #2940

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Branson, MO
• County: Taney County · 28,460 people
• City population: 28,460
• Metro: Branson, MO
• Population (ZIP): 28,460
• Household income: $60,489
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1065.0

Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.45%
• Current HPI: 200.8392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Branson, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+121.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $190,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-21 Price Changed $195,000 SOMO
• 2024-06-05 Price Changed $210,000 SOMO
• 2024-04-03 Price Changed $220,000 SOMO
• 2024-02-27 Price Changed $230,000 SOMO
• 2024-02-16 Price Changed $240,000 SOMO
• 2024-02-09 Listed $250,000 SOMO
• 2024-01-13 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-08 Price Changed $229,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-18 Price Changed $239,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-13 Listed $244,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-12 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2021-01-29 Listed $139,900 SOMO
• 2019-08-09 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2019-07-11 Listed $85,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,595 · +96.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.