14582 Coronado Dr · Spring Hill, FL 34609

$337,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Land · 273 Days on market

Built 2026 10,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Pre-Construction. To be built. Elegance & Comfort Combined! Thoughtfully designed with high-end touches, The Willow offers spacious living areas, a chef’s kitchen, and a tranquil owner’s retreat. Step Into Refined Living with The Willow in Spring Hill – Where Style, Smart Design, and Modern Convenience Meet With over 2,000 square feet of beautifully appointed living space, The Willow blends comfort, elegance, and efficiency. From its eye-catching stone accent exterior to its versatile split-bedroom layout, every detail is crafted to suit today’s lifestyle. Step through the covered front entry into an open-concept design featuring luxury vinyl flooring through

Key facts

• Flex room
• Large walk in pantry
• Extended patio

Tags

• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• LARGE WALK IN PANTRY
• FLEX ROOM
• EXTENDED PATIO
• SMART HOME FEATURES
• ENERGY STAR WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $338k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-472 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John D. Floyd Elementary School (math 43% / reading 53%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 948 students, 63% FRL); Central High School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 1,426 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.8%/yr); 738 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $338k implies a 590% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,790 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.99%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-91,717
• Equity at exit: $50,382

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-145,169
• Equity at exit: $29,215

Cash invested: $94,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34609

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Rents YoY: -4.8%
• Active inventory: 738
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,358 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,772
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$422 /mo · $5,068/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,956

Max offer price $269,542

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,475
• Closing costs: $10,137
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13561 Linden Dr Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.5	2344	$2,219	$0.95	16d	1	0.43mi
3302 Coronet Ct Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,120	$1.48	24d	1	0.45mi
2378 Comerwood Dr Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1623	$1,750	$1.08	17d	1	0.51mi
2388 Ainsworth Ave Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1612	$2,195	$1.36	24d	1	0.56mi
3241 Bluestone Ave Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	1809	$2,470	$1.37	2d	1	0.61mi
13196 Golden Lime Ave Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,200	$1.21	24d	1	0.81mi
4119 Autumn Amber Dr Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1812	$2,175	$1.20	24d	1	0.83mi
4138 Autumn Amber Dr Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,200	$1.21	24d	1	0.85mi
3548 Hornbeam Rd Spring Hill, FL	4.0	3.0	2207	$2,449	$1.11	19d	1	0.87mi
3537 Hornbeam Rd Spring Hill, FL	4.0	3.0	2207	$2,399	$1.09	4d	1	0.87mi
3556 Hornbeam Rd Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$2,049	$1.30	4d	1	0.88mi
3545 Hornbeam Rd Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$2,049	$1.30	4d	1	0.88mi
4154 Obsidian Dr Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,149	$1.29	14d	1	0.89mi
3567 Hornbeam Rd Spring Hill, FL	4.0	3.0	2207	$2,499	$1.13	24d	1	0.90mi
3407 Lema Dr Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	1754	$2,100	$1.20	11d	1	0.91mi
3339 Gretna Dr Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1547	$1,850	$1.20	21d	1	0.93mi
3284 Lema Dr Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1694	$1,900	$1.12	3d	1	0.97mi
13346 Westbridge Blvd Spring Hill, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1739	$2,520	$1.45	4d	7	0.98mi
13133 Haverhill Dr Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.5	2538	$2,250	$0.89	21d	1	1.13mi
13133 Haverhill Dr Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.5	2538	$2,275	$0.90	24d	1	1.13mi
14237 Spring Hill Dr Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	24d	1	1.15mi
13035 Haverhill Dr Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1973	$2,090	$1.06	24d	1	1.24mi
4247 Bramblewood Loop Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,000	$1.20	24d	1	1.34mi
14122 Newcastle Ave Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	2341	$2,400	$1.03	10d	1	1.41mi
3053 Stanton Ave Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,060	$1.29	20d	1	1.41mi
13755 Covey Run Pl Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.5	2303	$2,500	$1.09	24d	1	1.42mi
1811 Rookery Rd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,190	$1.53	21d	1	1.42mi
3810 Braemere Dr Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.5	2355	$2,365	$1.00	4d	1	1.46mi
1788 Rookery Rd Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.5	2234	$2,500	$1.12	4d	1	1.46mi
1755 Rookery Rd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,320	$1.48	24d	1	1.47mi
11404 Pike Ave Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1614	$1,795	$1.11	4d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-04
   price $337,900
3. 2026-02-03
   price $342,900
4. 2026-01-06
   price $344,900
5. 2025-11-10
   price $354,900
6. 2025-10-08
   price $344,900
7. 2025-07-23
   listed $354,900 Active
8. 2025-05-16
   soldstatus $49,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,928
• − Property taxes: −$5,068
• − Insurance: −$1,690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,264
• − Management: −$2,264
• − Depreciation: −$9,830
• Taxable loss: −$11,748
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,819
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #15937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 83,915
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,257
• Household income: $79,442
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 663.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.49%
• Current HPI: 286.5885
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.82%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+589.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $337,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $342,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $344,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $354,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $344,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-23 Listed $354,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $642 · +21.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.