🌊 Lakefront
14161 Carly Pines Ct · Conroe, TX
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (shaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 112°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 8/10 · Major
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Cash flow +10.5/30.0
- 1% rule +5.1/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Schools +3.9/10.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Rent growth +3.3/5.0
- DSCR +3.0/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$265,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT 4 BEDROOM! Wonderful Open Concept Interior Layout! Gourmet Island Kitchen with Large Pantry - Open to Spacious Dining Area & Family Room! Privately Located First Floor Primary Suite Offers Lovely Bath with Enormous Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Indoor Utility Room! Large Gameroom/Media Room! Big Secondary Bedroom Sizes! Covered Back Patio! Home Automation System! Great Community with SplashPad, Six Acre Lake, Pocket Parks, Trails, Pavilion, & 11 Acre Park! Lots of Preserved Open Space, Natural Creeks, & Walking Trails! Elementary School in Subdivision! MUST SEE!
Key facts
- Lakefront living
- Direct access
- Quiet cul-de-sac
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (9.1% below list).
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
- Recommended offer: $241k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
- Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
- Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Milam El (math 49% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 524 students, 82% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1310 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
- What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
- Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.01% ✓
- Cap rate
- 5.68%
- Cash-on-cash
- -2.20%
- DSCR
- 0.90
- GRM
- 8.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $376,665
- List price
- $265,000
- Delta
- -29.65%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14182 Granger Pointe Ln | 0.43mi | 4/2.5 | 2,255 (+1%) | 1mo | $287,890 | $128 | 77 |
| 15627 Tranquil Pines St | 0.45mi | 4/3.0 | 2,235 (0%) | 0mo | $279,990 | $125 | 76 |
| 16693 Heritage Pines Ln | 0.50mi | 4/3.0 | 2,235 (0%) | 1mo | $284,990 | $128 | 74 |
| 15439 Woody Haven Dr | 0.53mi | 4/2.5 | 2,210 (-1%) | 0mo | $289,990 | $131 | 73 |
| 16697 Heritage Pines Ln | 0.51mi | 4/3.0 | 2,185 (-2%) | 0mo | $274,990 | $126 | 71 |
| 15451 Woody Haven Dr | 0.55mi | 4/3.5 | 2,223 (-0%) | 2mo | $299,990 | $135 | 68 |
| 16792 Country Roots Ave | 0.56mi | 4/3.0 | 2,173 (-3%) | 0mo | $295,425 | $136 | 67 |
| 16969 Hazelnut Dr | 0.37mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 2,447 (+10%) | 0mo | $269,900 | $110 | 62 |
| 17002 Hazelnut Dr | 0.42mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 2,447 (+10%) | 0mo | $299,900 | $123 | 60 |
| 14325 Ash Tree Dr | 0.37mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,932 (-14%) | 1mo | $254,900 | $132 | 52 |
| 16976 Hazelnut Dr | 0.40mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,932 (-14%) | 2mo | $279,900 | $145 | 51 |
| 16788 Country Roots Ave | 0.56mi | 4/2.5 | 2,561 (+15%) | 1mo | $324,990 | $127 | 49 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -19.4%
- Equity multiple
- 0.32×
- Total profit
- $-50,496
- Equity at exit
- $39,512
- IRR
- -11.1%
- Equity multiple
- 0.32×
- Total profit
- $-50,550
- Equity at exit
- $22,912
Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 86 active · 55 under contract
- Months of supply
- 6.8 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $287,677 ($137/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 106 d
- This list price
- 22% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +23.1% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 77302
- Rents YoY
- 3.3%
- Active inventory
- 1310
- Price-to-rent
- 8.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,686 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,390
- Tax from tax record
- −$704 /mo · $8,445/yr
- Insurance
- −$110
- HOA
- −$54
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$564
- Net cashflow
- $-136
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $14 | -5% $-61 | +0% $-136 | +5% $-211 | +10% $-286 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-348 | -5% $-242 | +0% $-136 | +5% $-30 | +10% $76 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-3 | -0.5pp $-69 | base $-136 | +0.5pp $-205 | +1.0pp $-275 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $66,250
- Closing costs
- $7,950
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 2 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX | 3.0–4.0 | 2.0–3.0 | 1671 | $2,330 | $1.39 | 0d | 9 | 0.32mi |
| 15271 Country West Dr Conroe, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1568 | $1,350 | $0.86 | 93d | 1 | 1.33mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Association (PMG) with annual fee of $650Community curbs
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached 2-car garage
- Security
- PrewiredSmoke detector(s)
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewer
- Home design
- Residential property built in 2021Slab foundationComposition roofBrick and cement siding exterior
- Construction
- Built by D. R. HortonBrick and cement siding construction2021 construction
- Exterior features
- Covered patioPrivate yardPatioDeckFence (back yard)Subdivision settingConcrete road access
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherFree-standing rangeGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveOvenDisposalKitchen islandBreakfast barPantry
- Bedrooms
- Primary bedroom on the first floor (17 x 14)Bedroom on the second floor (14 x 11)Bedroom on the second floor (13 x 11)Bedroom on the second floor (12 x 11)Second-floor game room (19 x 13) — can function as additional bedroom/bonus space
- Flooring
- CarpetVinyl
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Central heat (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)
- Interior features
- Breakfast barHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPrimary bedroom with bathPantryTub with showerKitchen/dining comboLiving/dining roomProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
- Laundry & utility
- Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-07-30days on market $265,000 Active 23 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $265,000 Active 22 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $265,000 Active 20 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $265,000 Active 18 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $265,000 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $265,000 Active 16 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $265,000 Active 15 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $265,000 Active 14 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $265,000 Active 12 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $265,000 Active 11 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $265,000 Active 10 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $265,000 Active 9 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $265,000 Active 8 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $265,000 Active 7 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $265,000 Active 6 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $265,000 Active 5 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $265,000 Active 4 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $265,000 Active 3 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $265,000 Active 1 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $265,000 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $265,000 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $265,000 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $265,000 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $265,000 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $265,000 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $265,000 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $265,000 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $265,000 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $265,000 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-06-26days on market $265,000 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-06-24days on market $265,000 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $265,000 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $265,000 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $265,000 Active 65 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $265,000 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $265,000 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $265,000 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $265,000 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $265,000 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $265,000 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $265,000 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $265,000 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $265,000 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $265,000 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $265,000 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $265,000 Active 47 DOM
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2026-04-23price $265,000 874-char remark
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2026-04-14$270,000 Active 874-char remark
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2022-04-18soldstatus Sold 610-char remark
Show marketing remark (610 chars)
NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT 4 BEDROOM! Wonderful Open Concept Interior Layout! Gourmet Island Kitchen with Large Pantry - Open to Spacious Dining Area & Family Room! Privately Located First Floor Primary Suite Offers Lovely Bath with Enormous Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Indoor Utility Room! Large Gameroom/Media Room! Big Secondary Bedroom Sizes! Covered Back Patio! Home Automation System! Great Community with SplashPad, Six Acre Lake, Pocket Parks, Trails, Pavilion, & 11 Acre Park! Lots of Preserved Open Space, Natural Creeks, & Walking Trails! Elementary School in Subdivision! MUST SEE!
-
2022-03-08status Pending, Continue to Show 610-char remark
Show marketing remark (610 chars)
NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT 4 BEDROOM! Wonderful Open Concept Interior Layout! Gourmet Island Kitchen with Large Pantry - Open to Spacious Dining Area & Family Room! Privately Located First Floor Primary Suite Offers Lovely Bath with Enormous Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Indoor Utility Room! Large Gameroom/Media Room! Big Secondary Bedroom Sizes! Covered Back Patio! Home Automation System! Great Community with SplashPad, Six Acre Lake, Pocket Parks, Trails, Pavilion, & 11 Acre Park! Lots of Preserved Open Space, Natural Creeks, & Walking Trails! Elementary School in Subdivision! MUST SEE!
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $8,445 · $704/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $8,445 · $704/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $32,228
- − Mortgage interest
- −$14,844
- − Property taxes
- −$8,445
- − Insurance
- −$1,325
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,578
- − Management
- −$2,578
- − HOA
- −$648
- − Depreciation
- −$7,709
- Taxable loss
- −$5,899
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,416
- After-tax cash flow
- $-218/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This well-maintained, modern home with a lake view and private gate offers a good investment opportunity with minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and rental value.
Value-add opportunities
- Resale Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
- Rental Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be worn and may need replacement for a more modern look and easier maintenance. ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Conroe ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4815000
- Math proficiency
- 57% ▼ -6.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 57% ▼ -1.00%
- Median HH income
- $71,541
- Composite
- 50.65/100
- National rank
- #1833
- State rank
- #69 of 826 in TX
Livability — Conroe
- Score
- 74/100
- State rank
- #169
- US rank
- #4447
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Montgomery County · 713,896 people
- City population
- 205,417
- Metro
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 21,546
- Household income
- $84,673
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 6% of renters
Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 713,896 people
- By 2030
- 805,263 · +12.8%
- By 2040
- 992,708 · +39.1%
- By 2050
- 1,179,590 · +65.2%
- By 2075
- 1,628,084 · +128.1%
- By 2100
- 1,937,880 · +171.5%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Majority White (63%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
- Foreign-born
- 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
- Languages at home
- 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%
Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -187.56%
- Current HPI
- 262.1879
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 3.30%
- Metro
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
|
||
| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
||
| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
||
| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
|
||
Price history
-1.8% since first listed10 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-23 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
- 2026-04-14 Listed $270,000 HARMLS
- 2022-04-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
- 2022-03-08 Pending — HARMLS
- 2022-03-07 Price Changed $282,990 HARMLS
- 2022-02-21 Price Changed $280,990 HARMLS
- 2022-01-24 Price Changed $278,990 HARMLS
- 2021-12-31 Price Changed $273,990 HARMLS
- 2021-12-01 Price Changed $271,990 HARMLS
- 2021-10-14 Listed $269,990 HARMLS
Property tax history
+44.6%/yrLatest (2025): $8,445 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…