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14161 Carly Pines Ct 🌊 Lakefront
D+ Composite 48.6
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +10.5/30.0
  • 1% rule +5.1/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Schools +3.9/10.0
  • Livability +3.7/5.0
  • Rent growth +3.3/5.0
  • DSCR +3.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$265,000

14161 Carly Pines Ct · Conroe, TX 77302
4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,235 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market
Built 2021 Good condition 6,878 sqft lot 2-car garage $119/sqft · 30% below area Est $377k · 30% under · waterfront $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT 4 BEDROOM! Wonderful Open Concept Interior Layout! Gourmet Island Kitchen with Large Pantry - Open to Spacious Dining Area & Family Room! Privately Located First Floor Primary Suite Offers Lovely Bath with Enormous Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Indoor Utility Room! Large Gameroom/Media Room! Big Secondary Bedroom Sizes! Covered Back Patio! Home Automation System! Great Community with SplashPad, Six Acre Lake, Pocket Parks, Trails, Pavilion, & 11 Acre Park! Lots of Preserved Open Space, Natural Creeks, & Walking Trails! Elementary School in Subdivision! MUST SEE!

Key facts

  • Lakefront living
  • Direct access
  • Quiet cul-de-sac

Tags

LAKEFRONT LIVINGPRIVATE PRIMARY SUITEBACKYARD VIEWSDIRECT ACCESSQUIET CUL-DE-SACMASTERPLANNED COMMUNITY

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (9.1% below list).
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
  • Recommended offer: $241k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
  • Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
  • Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Milam El (math 49% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 524 students, 82% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1310 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $240,950 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
  8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
  9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
  10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.01%
Cap rate
5.68%
Cash-on-cash
-2.20%
DSCR
0.90
GRM
8.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$376,665
List price
$265,000
Delta
-29.65%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
14182 Granger Pointe Ln 0.43mi 4/2.5 2,255 (+1%) 1mo $287,890 $128 77
15627 Tranquil Pines St 0.45mi 4/3.0 2,235 (0%) 0mo $279,990 $125 76
16693 Heritage Pines Ln 0.50mi 4/3.0 2,235 (0%) 1mo $284,990 $128 74
15439 Woody Haven Dr 0.53mi 4/2.5 2,210 (-1%) 0mo $289,990 $131 73
16697 Heritage Pines Ln 0.51mi 4/3.0 2,185 (-2%) 0mo $274,990 $126 71
15451 Woody Haven Dr 0.55mi 4/3.5 2,223 (-0%) 2mo $299,990 $135 68
16792 Country Roots Ave 0.56mi 4/3.0 2,173 (-3%) 0mo $295,425 $136 67
16969 Hazelnut Dr 0.37mi 3/2.5 (-1) 2,447 (+10%) 0mo $269,900 $110 62
17002 Hazelnut Dr 0.42mi 3/2.5 (-1) 2,447 (+10%) 0mo $299,900 $123 60
14325 Ash Tree Dr 0.37mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,932 (-14%) 1mo $254,900 $132 52
16976 Hazelnut Dr 0.40mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,932 (-14%) 2mo $279,900 $145 51
16788 Country Roots Ave 0.56mi 4/2.5 2,561 (+15%) 1mo $324,990 $127 49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-19.4%
Equity multiple
0.32×
Total profit
$-50,496
Equity at exit
$39,512
10-year hold
IRR
-11.1%
Equity multiple
0.32×
Total profit
$-50,550
Equity at exit
$22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
86 active · 55 under contract
Months of supply
6.8 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$287,677 ($137/sqft)
Median days on market
106 d
This list price
22% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+23.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77302

Rents YoY
3.3%
Active inventory
1310
Price-to-rent
8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,686 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,390
Tax from tax record
$704 /mo · $8,445/yr
Insurance
$110
HOA
$54
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$564
Net cashflow
$-136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,858
Max offer price $240,950
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $14 -5% $-61 +0% $-136 +5% $-211 +10% $-286
Rent -10% $-348 -5% $-242 +0% $-136 +5% $-30 +10% $76
Rate -1.0pp $-3 -0.5pp $-69 base $-136 +0.5pp $-205 +1.0pp $-275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$66,250
Closing costs
$7,950
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 2 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX 3.0–4.0 2.0–3.0 1671 $2,330 $1.39 0d 9 0.32mi
15271 Country West Dr Conroe, TX 3.0 2.0 1568 $1,350 $0.86 93d 1 1.33mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Association (PMG) with annual fee of $650Community curbs

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage
Security
PrewiredSmoke detector(s)
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential property built in 2021Slab foundationComposition roofBrick and cement siding exterior
Construction
Built by D. R. HortonBrick and cement siding construction2021 construction
Exterior features
Covered patioPrivate yardPatioDeckFence (back yard)Subdivision settingConcrete road access

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherFree-standing rangeGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveOvenDisposalKitchen islandBreakfast barPantry
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom on the first floor (17 x 14)Bedroom on the second floor (14 x 11)Bedroom on the second floor (13 x 11)Bedroom on the second floor (12 x 11)Second-floor game room (19 x 13) — can function as additional bedroom/bonus space
Flooring
CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heat (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)
Interior features
Breakfast barHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPrimary bedroom with bathPantryTub with showerKitchen/dining comboLiving/dining roomProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
Laundry & utility
Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-07-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 23 DOM
  2. 2026-07-28
    days on market $265,000 Active 22 DOM
  3. 2026-07-26
    days on market $265,000 Active 20 DOM
  4. 2026-07-24
    days on market $265,000 Active 18 DOM
  5. 2026-07-23
    days on market $265,000 Active 17 DOM
  6. 2026-07-22
    days on market $265,000 Active 16 DOM
  7. 2026-07-21
    days on market $265,000 Active 15 DOM
  8. 2026-07-20
    days on market $265,000 Active 14 DOM
  9. 2026-07-18
    days on market $265,000 Active 12 DOM
  10. 2026-07-18
    days on market $265,000 Active 11 DOM
  11. 2026-07-16
    days on market $265,000 Active 10 DOM
  12. 2026-07-15
    days on market $265,000 Active 9 DOM
  13. 2026-07-14
    days on market $265,000 Active 8 DOM
  14. 2026-07-13
    days on market $265,000 Active 7 DOM
  15. 2026-07-13
    days on market $265,000 Active 6 DOM
  16. 2026-07-11
    days on market $265,000 Active 5 DOM
  17. 2026-07-10
    days on market $265,000 Active 4 DOM
  18. 2026-07-09
    days on market $265,000 Active 3 DOM
  19. 2026-07-07
    days on marketlisting id $265,000 Active 1 DOM
  20. 2026-07-06
    days on market $265,000 Active 83 DOM
  21. 2026-07-06
    days on market $265,000 Active 82 DOM
  22. 2026-07-05
    days on market $265,000 Active 81 DOM
  23. 2026-07-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 80 DOM
  24. 2026-07-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 79 DOM
  25. 2026-07-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 78 DOM
  26. 2026-06-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 77 DOM
  27. 2026-06-29
    days on market $265,000 Active 76 DOM
  28. 2026-06-28
    days on market $265,000 Active 75 DOM
  29. 2026-06-27
    days on market $265,000 Active 74 DOM
  30. 2026-06-26
    days on market $265,000 Active 73 DOM
  31. 2026-06-24
    days on market $265,000 Active 71 DOM
  32. 2026-06-22
    days on market $265,000 Active 69 DOM
  33. 2026-06-21
    days on market $265,000 Active 68 DOM
  34. 2026-06-18
    days on market $265,000 Active 65 DOM
  35. 2026-06-17
    days on market $265,000 Active 64 DOM
  36. 2026-06-16
    days on market $265,000 Active 63 DOM
  37. 2026-06-15
    days on market $265,000 Active 62 DOM
  38. 2026-06-13
    days on market $265,000 Active 60 DOM
  39. 2026-06-09
    days on market $265,000 Active 56 DOM
  40. 2026-06-08
    days on market $265,000 Active 55 DOM
  41. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 54 DOM
  42. 2026-06-04
    days on market $265,000 Active 51 DOM
  43. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 50 DOM
  44. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 49 DOM
  45. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 48 DOM
  46. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 47 DOM
  47. 2026-04-23
    price $265,000 874-char remark
  48. 2026-04-14
    listed $270,000 Active 874-char remark
  49. 2022-04-18
    soldstatus Sold 610-char remark
    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT 4 BEDROOM! Wonderful Open Concept Interior Layout! Gourmet Island Kitchen with Large Pantry - Open to Spacious Dining Area & Family Room! Privately Located First Floor Primary Suite Offers Lovely Bath with Enormous Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Indoor Utility Room! Large Gameroom/Media Room! Big Secondary Bedroom Sizes! Covered Back Patio! Home Automation System! Great Community with SplashPad, Six Acre Lake, Pocket Parks, Trails, Pavilion, & 11 Acre Park! Lots of Preserved Open Space, Natural Creeks, & Walking Trails! Elementary School in Subdivision! MUST SEE!

  50. 2022-03-08
    status Pending, Continue to Show 610-char remark
    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT 4 BEDROOM! Wonderful Open Concept Interior Layout! Gourmet Island Kitchen with Large Pantry - Open to Spacious Dining Area & Family Room! Privately Located First Floor Primary Suite Offers Lovely Bath with Enormous Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Indoor Utility Room! Large Gameroom/Media Room! Big Secondary Bedroom Sizes! Covered Back Patio! Home Automation System! Great Community with SplashPad, Six Acre Lake, Pocket Parks, Trails, Pavilion, & 11 Acre Park! Lots of Preserved Open Space, Natural Creeks, & Walking Trails! Elementary School in Subdivision! MUST SEE!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$8,445 · $704/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$8,445 · $704/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$32,228
− Mortgage interest
−$14,844
− Property taxes
−$8,445
− Insurance
−$1,325
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,578
− Management
−$2,578
− HOA
−$648
− Depreciation
−$7,709
Taxable loss
−$5,899
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,416
After-tax cash flow
$-218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,175–$33,525 screening

This well-maintained, modern home with a lake view and private gate offers a good investment opportunity with minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Resale Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
  • Rental Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be worn and may need replacement for a more modern look and easier maintenance.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Milam El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Moorhead J H F TX #704/1,662 Nat'l #6,453/14,009 High Caney Creek H S F TX #888/1,632 Nat'l #8,937/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Conroe ISD
NCES district ID
4815000
Math proficiency
57% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency
57% ▼ -1.00%
Median HH income
$71,541
Composite
50.65/100
National rank
#1833
State rank
#69 of 826 in TX
B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

Score
74/100
State rank
#169
US rank
#4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population
205,417
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
21,546
Household income
$84,673
Rent vs Own
17.1% rent · 82.9% own
Severe rent burden
6% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
713,896 people
By 2030
805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040
992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050
1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075
1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100
1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Majority White (63%)
Race & ethnicity
White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
Foreign-born
13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home
78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin
Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing
+7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-1.8% since first listed
10 events — show timeline
  • 2026-04-23 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-04-14 Listed $270,000 HARMLS
  • 2022-04-18 Sold (MLS) HARMLS
  • 2022-03-08 Pending HARMLS
  • 2022-03-07 Price Changed $282,990 HARMLS
  • 2022-02-21 Price Changed $280,990 HARMLS
  • 2022-01-24 Price Changed $278,990 HARMLS
  • 2021-12-31 Price Changed $273,990 HARMLS
  • 2021-12-01 Price Changed $271,990 HARMLS
  • 2021-10-14 Listed $269,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+44.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,445 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…