Parker Plan · Godley, TX 76044

$281,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,648 sqft · SingleFamily · 537 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Parker pays attention to every detail, from the open island kitchen to the spacious owner's suite with private bath. The secondary bathrooms are perfect for your growing family, set away from the main living area and sharing a jack-n-jill bath. Optional unique touches such as a mud bench at the Everday Entry™ can help you create the home you've always dreamed of.

Key facts

• Mud bench
• Open island kitchen
• Private bath

Tags

• OPEN ISLAND KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE BATH
• JACK-N-JILL BATH
• MUD BENCH
• EVERDAY ENTRY

🏗️ New construction. The $281,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $310,978.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $282k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-231 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.5% in Godley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#226 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Legacy El (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 408 students, 32% FRL); Godley H S (math 27% / reading 51%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 777 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 725 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 106d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 537 days — a 12% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $242,812 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 537 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.18%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,978
• List price: $281,990
• Delta: -9.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 Birchwood Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,648 (0%)	0mo	$287,990	$175	94
568 Highview Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,713 (+4%)	3mo	$360,000	$210	73
432 Avian Way	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,794 (+9%)	4mo	$299,990	$167	72
1156 Goldenrod Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,711 (+4%)	8mo	$235,000	$137	67
933 Creekhollow Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+2%)	4mo	$320,000	$191	61
1005 River Oaks Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+5%)	2mo	$328,000	$190	61
592 Highview Ct	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,843 (+12%)	2mo	$360,000	$195	61
1027 Stockton Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,859 (+13%)	4mo	$315,000	$169	60
1160 Country Glen Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+12%)	2mo	$324,900	$176	57
517 Highview Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,798 (+9%)	5mo	$335,000	$186	55
1017 River Oaks Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,811 (+10%)	1mo	$331,000	$183	52
1261 Grand Meadows Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,840 (+12%)	3mo	$346,000	$188	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-65,061
• Equity at exit: $46,368

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-75,440
• Equity at exit: $26,888

Cash invested: $87,074 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 40 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $316,170 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 79 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76044

• Home prices YoY: -12.4%
• Active inventory: 725
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,428 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,631
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$389 /mo · $4,665/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,720

Max offer price $277,569

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-16	-5% $-123	+0% $-231	+5% $-338	+10% $-446
Rent	-10% $-423	-5% $-327	+0% $-231	+5% $-135	+10% $-39
Rate	-1.0pp $-74	-0.5pp $-152	base $-231	+0.5pp $-311	+1.0pp $-393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,745
• Closing costs: $9,329
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1032 Fairfax Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,300	$1.38	35d	1	0.41mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,499	$1.48	112d	1	0.45mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1683	$2,499	$1.48	106d	1	0.45mi
201 Cliff Ct Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,900	$1.57	106d	1	0.48mi
644 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,995	$1.20	139d	1	0.56mi
9500 County Road 1001 Godley, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1063	$2,050	$1.93	0d	12	1.20mi
812 Rodgers Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,600	$1.49	139d	1	1.22mi
8200 Korat Vis Godley, TX	4.0	2.0	2116	$2,400	$1.13	41d	1	1.49mi
8200 Korat Vis Godley, TX	4.0	2.0	2116	$2,400	$1.13	19d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $281,990 Active 537 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $281,990 Active 536 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $281,990 Active 535 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $281,990 Active 534 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $281,990 Active 533 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $281,990 Active 532 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $281,990 Active 531 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $281,990 Active 530 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $281,990 Active 529 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $281,990 Active 528 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $281,990 Active 527 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $281,990 Active 526 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $281,990 Active 525 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $281,990 Active 519 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $281,990 Active 518 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $281,990 Active 516 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $281,990 Active 514 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $281,990 Active 512 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $281,990 Active 511 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $281,990 Active 509 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $281,990 Active 508 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $281,990 Active 507 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $281,990 Active 506 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $281,990 Active 505 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $281,990 Active 504 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    pricedays on market $281,990 Active 503 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $279,990 Active 502 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $279,990 Active 501 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $279,990 Active 500 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $279,990 Active 499 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $279,990 Active 498 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $279,990 Active 497 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $279,990 Active 496 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $279,990 Active 495 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $279,990 Active 494 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $279,990 Active 493 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $279,990 Active 492 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $279,990 Active 491 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $279,990 Active 489 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $279,990 Active 488 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $279,990 Active 487 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 486 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 483 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $279,990 Active 482 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $279,990 Active 481 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $279,990 Active 480 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $279,990 Active 478 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $279,990 Active 476 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $279,990 Active 475 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $279,990 Active 474 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,420
• − Property taxes: −$4,665
• − Insurance: −$1,555
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,331
• − Management: −$2,331
• − Depreciation: −$9,047
• Taxable loss: −$8,210
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,970
• After-tax cash flow: $-800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Godley, TX, is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and functionality, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Godley El Middle Godley Middle High Godley H S F TX #859/1,632 Nat'l #8,724/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Godley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,332
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5820
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Godley

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #5528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Godley, TX
• County: Johnson · 179,678 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,759
• Household income: $103,795
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.58%
• Current HPI: 259.1029
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-31 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $251,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-05 Listed $299,990 Zillow