407 Forest Hills Dr Unit Rancho Mirage · Rancho Mirage, CA 92270

$348,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,535 sqft · Condo public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1981 $227/sqft · 20% below area Est $419k · 17% under $800/mo HOA · 19% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Since 2004, this condo has been owned by one family. Although it has not been remodeled, it has been lovingly cared for, and has the EXTENDED LAND LEASE through 2121! Sitting on a private lot in the back of Mission Hills, it is relatively close to the Dinah Shore entrance. Because it is an end unit, it feels like the pool/patio leisure area is a private oasis. If you're looking for a Mission Hills get-away that is competitively priced, this could be it.

Key facts

• Private lot
• End unit
• $800 HOA

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• END UNIT
• POOL PATIO LEISURE AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $348k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $348k).
• Recommended offer: $327k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,065 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 529 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,232/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($327k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $289k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $327,120 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.01%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $418,882
• List price: $348,000
• Delta: -16.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-42,383
• Equity at exit: $51,888

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-8,490
• Equity at exit: $30,089

Cash invested: $97,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92270

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 529
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,232 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,825
• Tax from tax record: −$410 /mo · $4,920/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$800
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$889
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,025

Max offer price $348,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,000
• Closing costs: $10,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
426 Forest Hills Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1535	$3,600	$2.35	24d	1	0.06mi
415 Forest Hills Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1535	$3,300	$2.15	43d	1	0.06mi
436 Sunningdale Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1535	$4,000	$2.61	43d	1	0.09mi
343 Forest Hills Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1535	$4,500	$2.93	17d	1	0.11mi
343 Forest Hills Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1535	$4,500	$2.93	43d	1	0.11mi
464 Sunningdale Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	3.0	1751	$6,000	$3.43	43d	1	0.23mi
462 Sunningdale Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1547	$3,750	$2.42	43d	1	0.25mi
118 Racquet Club Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1488	$2,900	$1.95	43d	1	0.33mi
107 Racquet Club Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1488	$4,500	$3.02	43d	1	0.40mi
82 Burgundy Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1438	$4,250	$2.96	18d	1	0.60mi
714 Inverness Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	3.0	2227	$3,500	$1.57	43d	1	0.64mi
42 Colonial Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	3.0	2005	$3,600	$1.80	21d	1	0.65mi
42 Colonial Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	3.0	2005	$3,600	$1.80	2d	1	0.65mi
54 Pine Valley Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	2.0	1620	$5,000	$3.09	43d	1	0.66mi
26 Carmenere Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1438	$6,000	$4.17	43d	1	0.71mi
38 Pine Valley Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1620	$6,500	$4.01	43d	1	0.73mi
624 Hospitality Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	2000	$3,295	$1.65	43d	1	0.75mi
69 Cabernet Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1438	$3,200	$2.23	43d	1	0.77mi
46 Vintage Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1657	$2,995	$1.81	43d	1	0.78mi
34 Magnum Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1770	$3,800	$2.15	43d	1	0.79mi
51 Pebble Beach Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	2.0	1806	$6,000	$3.32	43d	1	0.79mi
35054 Mission Hills Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1396	$2,549	$1.83	4d	1	0.92mi
35082 Mission Hills Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.5	1624	$3,250	$2.00	12d	1	1.02mi
522 Desert West Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1984	$4,500	$2.27	43d	1	1.03mi
35090 Mission Hills Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1596	$3,950	$2.47	24d	1	1.04mi
35 Mission Ct Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	2.0	1382	$4,125	$2.98	43d	1	1.06mi
91 Augusta Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1620	$5,290	$3.27	43d	1	1.06mi
38 Mission Ct Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	3.0	1382	$3,500	$2.53	43d	1	1.06mi
8 Mission Ct Rancho Mirage, CA	2.0	2.0	1540	$2,500	$1.62	18d	1	1.09mi
34071 Denise Way Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	2.0	1218	$2,599	$2.13	24d	1	1.25mi
34361 Denise Way Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,800	$2.00	43d	1	1.26mi
69603 Heather Way Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	2.0	1218	$2,300	$1.89	43d	1	1.31mi
37 Shoreline Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	3.0	1928	$3,650	$1.89	43d	1	1.35mi
13 Vista Mirage Way Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	2.0	2071	$3,700	$1.79	44d	1	1.36mi
99 Shoreline Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	3.0	2102	$4,000	$1.90	43d	1	1.40mi
59 Shoreline Dr Rancho Mirage, CA	3.0	3.5	2235	$3,995	$1.79	43d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $800 · $9,600/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $348,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $348,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $348,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $348,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $348,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $348,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $348,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $348,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $348,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $348,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $348,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $348,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $348,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $348,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $348,000 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    Since 2004, this condo has been owned by one family. Although it has not been remodeled, it has been lovingly cared for, and has the EXTENDED LAND LEASE through 2121! Sitting on a private lot in the back of Mission Hills, it is relatively close to the Dinah Shore entrance. Because it is an end unit, it feels like the pool/patio leisure area is a private oasis. If you're looking for a Mission Hills get-away that is competitively priced, this could be it.

16. 2026-04-14
    listed $375,000 Active 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    Since 2004, this condo has been owned by one family. Although it has not been remodeled, it has been lovingly cared for, and has the EXTENDED LAND LEASE through 2121! Sitting on a private lot in the back of Mission Hills, it is relatively close to the Dinah Shore entrance. Because it is an end unit, it feels like the pool/patio leisure area is a private oasis. If you're looking for a Mission Hills get-away that is competitively priced, this could be it.

17. 2004-08-25
    soldstatus $289,000
18. 2004-07-17
    historical
19. 2004-05-01
    listed $289,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,920 · $410/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,920 · $410/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,493
• − Property taxes: −$4,920
• − Insurance: −$1,740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,062
• − Management: −$4,062
• − HOA: −$9,600
• − Depreciation: −$10,124
• Taxable loss: −$3,223
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$774
• After-tax cash flow: $2,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Springs Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629550
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,638
• Composite: 26.76/100
• National rank: #7131
• State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Mirage

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1065
• US rank: #25255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Mirage, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 17,563
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,563
• Household income: $107,364
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 498.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.99%
• Current HPI: 282.2957
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.72%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+20.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $348,000 GPSMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $375,000 GPSMLS
• 2004-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $289,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-17 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2004-05-01 Listed $289,000 GPSMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,920 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.