23330 Prairie Bird Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1982 3,571 sqft lot $169/sqft · at area comps Est $196k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this cozy and well maintained 3-bedroom 2-bath home. The primary bedroom includes a private full bathroom, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family ,guests or a home office. Enjoy a low maintenance yard /patio perfect for relaxing outdoors. This lovely home is ideal for first time home buyers, or those downsizing or anyone seeking comfort and convenience.

Key facts

• 3,571 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1982

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.21%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,209
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -3.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-25,017
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,148
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,145 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$408 /mo · $4,893/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,909

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 172 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 171 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 170 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 167 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 164 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 163 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $189,900 Active 162 DOM
10. 2025-12-20
    listed $193,000 Active 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Welcome to this cozy and well maintained 3-bedroom 2-bath home. The primary bedroom includes a private full bathroom, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family ,guests or a home office. Enjoy a low maintenance yard /patio perfect for relaxing outdoors. This lovely home is ideal for first time home buyers, or those downsizing or anyone seeking comfort and convenience.

11. 2022-06-06
    soldstatus
12. 2019-03-14
    soldstatus
13. 2019-03-13
    soldstatus Sold 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    * * * PRICED TO SELL. Perfect for investors or those desiring a "Fixer-upper". Conveniently located near Hardy Toll, I-45 and Grand Parkway 99. Come use your imagination and make this property your home!

14. 2019-02-26
    status Pending 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    * * * PRICED TO SELL. Perfect for investors or those desiring a "Fixer-upper". Conveniently located near Hardy Toll, I-45 and Grand Parkway 99. Come use your imagination and make this property your home!

15. 2019-02-21
    listed $85,000 Active 216-char remark

    Show marketing remark (216 chars)

    * * * PRICED TO SELL. Perfect for investors or those desiring a "Fixer-upper". Conveniently located near Hardy Toll, I-45 and Grand Parkway 99. Come use your imagination and make this property your home!

16. 2001-08-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,893 · $408/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,893 · $408/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$4,893
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,059
• − Management: −$2,059
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$685
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$164
• After-tax cash flow: $2,404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+127.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-20 Listed $193,000 HARMLS
• 2022-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-02-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-02-21 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2001-08-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,893 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.