3030 Johnson Ave Unit 4K · New York, NY 10463

$349,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · Condo · 36 Days on market

Built 1966

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out this great opportunity to own this an incredible light filled East facing 2br/1.5ba Apartment with expansive all-season views. Centrally located in Riverdale, this prime location is close to parks, shopping, restaurants and walk to #1 train and express bus to NY. As you walk into this sunny light filled apartment you are welcomed by an oversized living/dining room, an updated kitchen with Stainless steel appliances and wood cabinets, a private den/office right off the kitchen, an updated full hall bath, extra-large hallway closets, (total of 7 large closets throughout the apartment!!!) two large bedrooms with half bath en-suite to primary room. Rounding off the apartment is an oversized balcony, offering expansive views overlooking a park and more! The building offers a laundry room and bike rack. Indoor garage waitlist; plenty of street parking. Only 10 % Down Payment Required. Pet friendly. Truly a must-see property! Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

Key facts

• Open views
• Valuable extra space
• Private terrace

Tags

• PRIVATE TERRACE
• OPEN VIEWS
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• VALUABLE EXTRA SPACE
• 7 LARGE CLOSETS
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $349k).
• Recommended offer: $339k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 342 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,571/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 5586% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $338,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.02%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-11,581
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $109,561
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10463

• Rents YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 342
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,571 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$436 /mo · $5,235/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$750
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,053

Max offer price $349,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Netherland Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1132	$3,938	$3.48	21d	3	0.26mi
405 W 206th St Unit 1202E New York, NY	3.0	2.0	900	$6,250	$6.94	24d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-01-07
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-02
   listed $349,000 Active
3. 2025-12-02
   listed $349,000 Active
4. 2022-01-05
   soldstatus $320,000 Closed 1009-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

   Don't miss out this great opportunity to own this an incredible light filled East facing 2br/1.5ba Apartment with expansive all-season views. Centrally located in Riverdale, this prime location is close to parks, shopping, restaurants and walk to #1 train and express bus to NY. As you walk into this sunny light filled apartment you are welcomed by an oversized living/dining room, an updated kitchen with Stainless steel appliances and wood cabinets, a private den/office right off the kitchen, an updated full hall bath, extra-large hallway closets, (total of 7 large closets throughout the apartment!!!) two large bedrooms with half bath en-suite to primary room. Rounding off the apartment is an oversized balcony, offering expansive views overlooking a park and more! The building offers a laundry room and bike rack. Indoor garage waitlist; plenty of street parking. Only 10 % Down Payment Required. Pet friendly. Truly a must-see property! Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

5. 2022-01-05
   soldstatus $320,000 Sold

   Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

   Don't miss out this great opportunity to own this an incredible light filled East facing 2br/1.5ba Apartment with expansive all-season views. Centrally located in Riverdale, this prime location is close to parks, shopping, restaurants and walk to #1 train and express bus to NY. As you walk into this sunny light filled apartment you are welcomed by an oversized living/dining room, an updated kitchen with Stainless steel appliances and wood cabinets, a private den/office right off the kitchen, an updated full hall bath, extra-large hallway closets, (total of 7 large closets throughout the apartment!!!) two large bedrooms with half bath en-suite to primary room. Rounding off the apartment is an oversized balcony, offering expansive views overlooking a park and more! The building offers a laundry room and bike rack. Indoor garage waitlist; plenty of street parking. Only 10 % Down Payment Required. Pet friendly. Truly a must-see property! Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

6. 2021-09-10
   price $320,000
7. 2021-08-13
   status Pending 1009-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

   Don't miss out this great opportunity to own this an incredible light filled East facing 2br/1.5ba Apartment with expansive all-season views. Centrally located in Riverdale, this prime location is close to parks, shopping, restaurants and walk to #1 train and express bus to NY. As you walk into this sunny light filled apartment you are welcomed by an oversized living/dining room, an updated kitchen with Stainless steel appliances and wood cabinets, a private den/office right off the kitchen, an updated full hall bath, extra-large hallway closets, (total of 7 large closets throughout the apartment!!!) two large bedrooms with half bath en-suite to primary room. Rounding off the apartment is an oversized balcony, offering expansive views overlooking a park and more! The building offers a laundry room and bike rack. Indoor garage waitlist; plenty of street parking. Only 10 % Down Payment Required. Pet friendly. Truly a must-see property! Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

8. 2021-06-30
   listed $295,000
9. 2021-06-30
   listed $295,000 Active
10. 2021-06-28
    listed $295,000 Active 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Don't miss out this great opportunity to own this an incredible light filled East facing 2br/1.5ba Apartment with expansive all-season views. Centrally located in Riverdale, this prime location is close to parks, shopping, restaurants and walk to #1 train and express bus to NY. As you walk into this sunny light filled apartment you are welcomed by an oversized living/dining room, an updated kitchen with Stainless steel appliances and wood cabinets, a private den/office right off the kitchen, an updated full hall bath, extra-large hallway closets, (total of 7 large closets throughout the apartment!!!) two large bedrooms with half bath en-suite to primary room. Rounding off the apartment is an oversized balcony, offering expansive views overlooking a park and more! The building offers a laundry room and bike rack. Indoor garage waitlist; plenty of street parking. Only 10 % Down Payment Required. Pet friendly. Truly a must-see property! Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

11. 2016-07-26
    soldstatus $245,000 Sold
12. 2016-07-26
    price $245,000
13. 2016-07-21
    soldstatus $245,000
14. 2016-04-11
    historical Pending
15. 2016-04-11
    price $260,000
16. 2015-10-22
    price $260,000
17. 2015-09-15
    price $280,000
18. 2015-04-18
    price $290,000
19. 2014-11-07
    listed $299,900 Active
20. 2014-11-07
    listed $260,000
21. 2014-10-01
    historical Expired
22. 2014-09-30
    historical
23. 2014-06-11
    price
24. 2013-12-09
    listed Active
25. 2013-12-09
    listed $305,000
26. 2013-12-09
    listed $305,000
27. 2013-12-09
    listed $305,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$5,235
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,428
• − Management: −$3,428
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$690
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$166
• After-tax cash flow: $5,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 69,470
• Household income: $74,974
• Rent vs Own: 64.6% rent · 35.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 5586.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Two or more races 17% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1% Dominican 25%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -294.75%
• Current HPI: 168.0211
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.60%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+14.4% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Listed $349,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Listed $349,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2022-01-05 Sold (MLS) $320,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2022-01-05 Sold (MLS) $320,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-10 Price Changed $320,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2021-08-13 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-30 Listed $295,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2021-06-30 Listed $295,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2021-06-28 Listed $295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-26 Price Changed $245,000 HGMLS
• 2016-07-26 Sold (MLS) $245,000 HGMLS
• 2016-07-21 Sold (MLS) $245,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-11 Contingent — HGMLS
• 2016-04-11 Price Changed $260,000 HGMLS
• 2015-10-22 Price Changed $260,000 HGMLS
• 2015-09-15 Price Changed $280,000 HGMLS
• 2015-04-18 Price Changed $290,000 HGMLS
• 2014-11-07 Listed $299,900 HGMLS
• 2014-11-07 Listed $260,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-01 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2014-09-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-11 Price Changed — HGMLS
• 2013-12-09 Listed — HGMLS
• 2013-12-09 Listed $305,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2013-12-09 Listed $305,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-09 Listed $305,000 RLS at REBNY