9205 NE 45th St · Spencer, OK 73084

$156,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,035 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1978 Est $148k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Thank Welcome to peaceful country living in the Town of Spencer! This 3 bedroom home has 1.5 baths and an extra room that can be used for an office or a workout room. Fresh paint, newer carpet. Brand new water heater installed May 2018. 2013 Roof. Good sized backyard. This home also qualifies for Community Action Agency's down-payment assistance program, offering up to $14,000 to buyers.

Key facts

• Converted garage
• New water heater
• Good sized backyard

Tags

• CONVERTED GARAGE
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW ROOF
• GOOD SIZED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#615 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Oklahoma City (urban): math 7% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #254 of 270 in OK (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,365 units permitted in Oklahoma County in 2024 (569 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oklahoma County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 20% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $156k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,660 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.59%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,005
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9209 NE 45th St	0.01mi	3/1.5	1,008 (-3%)	2mo	$144,900	$144	91
8817 NE 46th St	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,092 (+6%)	4mo	$149,900	$137	74
4709 Baker St	0.16mi	3/1.0	960 (-7%)	4mo	$76,000	$79	73
9700 NE 43rd St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,014 (-2%)	8mo	$87,000	$86	57
4900 N Shady Nook Way	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,063 (+3%)	21mo	$159,000	$150	55
4903 Able St	0.22mi	3/1.0	927 (-10%)	17mo	$153,000	$165	55
4908 Shadynook Way	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,139 (+10%)	12mo	$180,000	$158	47
8931 NE 50th St	0.40mi	3/1.0	888 (-14%)	13mo	$126,900	$143	43
3708 Redbud Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+8%)	14mo	$195,000	$174	42
4816 Spencer Rd	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	904 (-13%)	22mo	$65,000	$72	23
5003 Spencer Rd	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,184 (+14%)	15mo	$140,000	$118	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $114,101
• Equity at exit: $140,537

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.17×
• Total profit: $312,975
• Equity at exit: $303,074

Cash invested: $43,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73084

• Home prices YoY: 24.3%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $969/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,220

Max offer price $156,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,000
• Closing costs: $4,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2823 Juvene Cir Spencer, OK	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,800	$1.67	2d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $156,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $156,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $156,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    listed $130,000 Active
15. 2018-10-05
    soldstatus $60,000
16. 2018-09-28
    soldstatus $60,000 Sold 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Thank Welcome to peaceful country living in the Town of Spencer! This 3 bedroom home has 1.5 baths and an extra room that can be used for an office or a workout room. Fresh paint, newer carpet. Brand new water heater installed May 2018. 2013 Roof. Good sized backyard. This home also qualifies for Community Action Agency's down-payment assistance program, offering up to $14,000 to buyers.

17. 2018-07-31
    status Pending 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Thank Welcome to peaceful country living in the Town of Spencer! This 3 bedroom home has 1.5 baths and an extra room that can be used for an office or a workout room. Fresh paint, newer carpet. Brand new water heater installed May 2018. 2013 Roof. Good sized backyard. This home also qualifies for Community Action Agency's down-payment assistance program, offering up to $14,000 to buyers.

18. 2018-05-11
    listed $64,500 Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Thank Welcome to peaceful country living in the Town of Spencer! This 3 bedroom home has 1.5 baths and an extra room that can be used for an office or a workout room. Fresh paint, newer carpet. Brand new water heater installed May 2018. 2013 Roof. Good sized backyard. This home also qualifies for Community Action Agency's down-payment assistance program, offering up to $14,000 to buyers.

19. 2014-09-24
    soldstatus $52,500
20. 2014-09-12
    soldstatus $52,500 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    Updated with ceramic tile and nicely painted. Available as a package with 559395, 559380,559392,559398,559400, 559391,559394, 559382, 559389

21. 2014-07-15
    listed $52,500 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    Updated with ceramic tile and nicely painted. Available as a package with 559395, 559380,559392,559398,559400, 559391,559394, 559382, 559389

22. 2014-04-01
    historical
23. 2012-06-08
    listed $52,500
24. 2011-07-01
    historical
25. 2010-08-27
    listed $58,500
26. 2004-12-13
    soldstatus $34,511
27. 2004-10-25
    listed $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,404 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$435/yr (+$36/mo · 44.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,738
• − Property taxes: −$969
• − Insurance: −$780
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,538
• Taxable income: $3,119
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$748
• After-tax cash flow: $4,750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oklahoma City
• NCES district ID: 4022770
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $35,606
• Composite: 7.0/100
• National rank: #9970
• State rank: #254 of 270 in OK

Livability — Spencer

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #615
• US rank: #24440

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spencer, OK
• Population (ZIP): 6,296

Population outlook (Oklahoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 911,875 people
• By 2030: 982,413 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,130,468 · +24.0%
• By 2050: 1,288,422 · +41.3%
• By 2075: 1,711,482 · +87.7%
• By 2100: 2,088,448 · +129.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 52% White 24% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Oklahoma

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.1pp toward D · 2008: -16.8pp · 2024: -1.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.7 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+10.5 2012: R+16.7 2008: R+16.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 53.65%
• Current HPI: 274.4301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+282.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $130,000 FSBO.com
• 2018-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-28 Sold (MLS) $60,000 MLSOK
• 2018-07-31 Pending — MLSOK
• 2018-05-11 Listed $64,500 MLSOK
• 2014-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records
• 2014-09-12 Sold (MLS) $52,500 MLSOK
• 2014-07-15 Listed $52,500 MLSOK
• 2014-04-01 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2012-06-08 Listed $52,500 MLSOK
• 2011-07-01 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2010-08-27 Listed $58,500 MLSOK
• 2004-12-13 Sold (MLS) $34,511 MLSOK
• 2004-10-25 Listed $34,000 MLSOK

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $969 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.