8594 Alvarado Calzada · Warrington, FL 32507

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 334 Days on market

Built 2021 4,856 sqft lot $137/sqft · 21% above area Est $165k · 21% over $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This corner lot in Bayou Grande Villas is a must see! A well kept 2021 Clayton Explorer features 1586 SF of beautiful home space including an open concept living area, a giant kitchen island, and multiple storage areas. The master suite is huge with a walk in closet, large tub and bonus storage space. Two additional bedrooms, a full bath, and large laundry room complete the space. Beautiful Johnson beach is less than 10 miles away and downtown Pensacola can be reached in 10-15 minutes. HOA dues of only $19/month provide access to a community pool and event space, along with locked boat storage and private access to a boat ramp where all boats under 14feet height can easily reach Pensacola Bay and the Gulf! Whether a place to live or a place to get away, this is definitely the place to be!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Boat ramp with dock
• Water access

Tags

• WATERFRONT BAYOU GRANDE VILLA
• COMMUNITY POOL
• BOAT RAMP WITH DOCK
• SECURED BOAT STORAGE AREA
• WATER ACCESS
• CLOSE TO BEACHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.3% in Warrington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#631 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 334 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $199k implies a 1870% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 334 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.00%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,000
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: 20.61%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-26,591
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-24,493
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32507

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,823 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,861/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,646

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8584 Alvarado Calzada Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,200	$1.34	23d	1	0.04mi
8727 Schooner Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,950	$1.52	23d	1	0.27mi
3762 Weatherstone Cir Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$1,950	$1.07	23d	1	0.60mi
7895 Bay Meadows Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	23d	1	0.89mi
2289 Dog Track Rd Unit b Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,850	$1.73	13d	1	1.08mi
9219 Gulf Beach Hwy Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1472	$1,249	$0.85	23d	1	1.12mi
9854 Starling Dr Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1583	$2,000	$1.26	13d	1	1.26mi
9908 Starling Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1354	$2,000	$1.48	23d	1	1.33mi
1076 Antigua Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,400	$1.30	21d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 334 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 333 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 332 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 331 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 329 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 326 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 325 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 324 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $199,000 Active 323 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 319 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 318 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 317 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 316 DOM
14. 2026-02-02
    price $205,000 803-char remark

    Show marketing remark (803 chars)

    This corner lot in Bayou Grande Villas is a must see! A well kept 2021 Clayton Explorer features 1586 SF of beautiful home space including an open concept living area, a giant kitchen island, and multiple storage areas. The master suite is huge with a walk in closet, large tub and bonus storage space. Two additional bedrooms, a full bath, and large laundry room complete the space. Beautiful Johnson beach is less than 10 miles away and downtown Pensacola can be reached in 10-15 minutes. HOA dues of only $19/month provide access to a community pool and event space, along with locked boat storage and private access to a boat ramp where all boats under 14feet height can easily reach Pensacola Bay and the Gulf! Whether a place to live or a place to get away, this is definitely the place to be!

15. 2025-07-19
    listed $215,000 Active 803-char remark

    Show marketing remark (803 chars)

    This corner lot in Bayou Grande Villas is a must see! A well kept 2021 Clayton Explorer features 1586 SF of beautiful home space including an open concept living area, a giant kitchen island, and multiple storage areas. The master suite is huge with a walk in closet, large tub and bonus storage space. Two additional bedrooms, a full bath, and large laundry room complete the space. Beautiful Johnson beach is less than 10 miles away and downtown Pensacola can be reached in 10-15 minutes. HOA dues of only $19/month provide access to a community pool and event space, along with locked boat storage and private access to a boat ramp where all boats under 14feet height can easily reach Pensacola Bay and the Gulf! Whether a place to live or a place to get away, this is definitely the place to be!

16. 2011-10-04
    soldstatus $10,100
17. 2006-08-08
    soldstatus $675,000
18. 1983-11-01
    soldstatus $12,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,861 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,861 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,861
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,750
• − Management: −$1,750
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,646
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$395
• After-tax cash flow: $2,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warrington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrington, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,226
• Household income: $73,540
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.23%
• Current HPI: 548.03
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1489.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $205,000 PARMLS
• 2025-07-19 Listed $215,000 PARMLS
• 2011-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $10,100 Public Records
• 2006-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $675,000 Public Records
• 1983-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,861 · +17.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.