8841 Jennings Station Rd · Jennings, MO 63136

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,035 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1946 6,011 sqft lot Est $72k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

WONDERFUL INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!!! This spacious two-bedroom; one-bathroom has all hardwood floors, tile in the bathroom, LVP in the kitchen. Comes with an electric stove, one-car attached garage, and a full unfinished basement with a newer water heater. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 6,011 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1946

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#208 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, commute A-, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jennings (suburban): math 8% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #315 of 324 in MO (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 86% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fairview Primary (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 267 students, 100% FRL); Jennings High (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #497 of 521 statewide, top 96%, 691 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $75k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.93%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $72,450
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8819 May Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0	1,074 (+4%)	0mo	$100,000	$93	87
2026 Mclaran Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0	1,026 (-1%)	1mo	$89,500	$87	84
8930 Sides Ct	0.23mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,008 (-3%)	1mo	$65,000	$64	77
1719 Veronica Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0	984 (-5%)	2mo	$94,500	$96	70
8808 Clifton Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0	912 (-12%)	2mo	$29,900	$33	67
9426 Westchester Dr	0.65mi	2/1.0	982 (-5%)	1mo	$68,900	$70	60
7117 W Florissant Ave	0.69mi	2/1.0	992 (-4%)	1mo	$77,000	$78	60
9240 Hathaway Dr	0.72mi	2/1.0	982 (-5%)	2mo	$130,000	$132	57
9456 Bagley Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0	982 (-5%)	2mo	$55,000	$56	56
9468 Halls Ferry Rd	0.65mi	3/0.5 (+1)	975 (-6%)	2mo	$67,500	$69	51
2425 Shirley Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0	896 (-13%)	2mo	$34,900	$39	50
8870 Saint Cyr Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,131 (+9%)	2mo	$39,900	$35	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $41,310
• Equity at exit: $37,109

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $109,698
• Equity at exit: $59,975

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,186 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $461	-5% $440	+0% $419	+5% $398	+10% $376
Rent	-10% $325	-5% $372	+0% $419	+5% $466	+10% $513
Rate	-1.0pp $457	-0.5pp $438	base $419	+0.5pp $399	+1.0pp $380

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8817 Shady Grove Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1085	$1,075	$0.99	24d	1	0.18mi
2022 McLaran Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1181	$1,593	$1.35	15d	1	0.29mi
2056 Coleridge Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	949	$1,195	$1.26	24d	1	0.33mi
1942 Damato Ct Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	905	$1,100	$1.22	44d	1	0.36mi
8527 Dianthus Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	976	$1,295	$1.33	44d	1	0.41mi
8720 Akins Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,150	$1.14	24d	1	0.44mi
8502 Dianthus Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1072	$1,175	$1.10	24d	1	0.47mi
7 Lamar Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	894	$1,200	$1.34	18d	1	0.51mi
2415 Shirley Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	24d	1	0.51mi
3 Pohlman Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	704	$1,000	$1.42	17d	1	0.55mi
2427 Switzer Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,300	$1.29	44d	1	0.57mi
5955 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,050	$1.02	3d	1	0.64mi
8344 Eton Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	4d	1	0.65mi
8347 Eton Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,075	$1.43	44d	1	0.66mi
2527 Switzer Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,135	$1.28	17d	1	0.68mi
5932 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,373	$1.27	21d	1	0.69mi
9418 Pattonwood Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	982	$1,500	$1.53	24d	1	0.71mi
8828 Riverview Blvd Apt 2S St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	816	$850	$1.04	44d	1	0.77mi
8548 Drury Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,420	$1.28	44d	1	0.77mi
2617 Hord Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$775	$0.97	4d	1	0.81mi
7205 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	832	$750	$0.90	44d	1	0.83mi
7142 Lamont Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	18d	1	0.83mi
5662 Wilborn Dr Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	768	$850	$1.11	24d	1	0.85mi
5756 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1080	$995	$0.92	44d	1	0.87mi
5741 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	24d	1	0.89mi
5637 Jennings Station Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1116	$895	$0.80	44d	1	0.90mi
1225 Newark Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	944	$1,400	$1.48	4d	1	0.91mi
5654 Acme Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	968	$325	$0.34	22d	1	0.91mi
2623 Avie Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	921	$1,350	$1.47	44d	1	0.91mi
5721 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,120	$1.09	24d	1	0.93mi
5612 Hodiamont Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,150	$0.96	11d	1	0.95mi
5615 Beldon Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$950	$1.12	44d	1	0.95mi
7120 Greenhaven Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,050	$0.93	24d	1	0.95mi
8908 Scottdale Ave Jennings, MO	2.0	1.0	790	$1,000	$1.27	44d	1	0.98mi
5640 Sapphire Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	44d	1	1.04mi
5574 Era Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	12d	1	1.05mi
5546 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	850	$1,273	$1.50	21d	1	1.06mi
5515 Wilborn Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,400	$1.12	44d	1	1.07mi
7426 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,125	$1.02	18d	1	1.09mi
7441 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1068	$1,350	$1.26	13d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-26
   listed $75,000 Active
3. 2026-02-02
   price $87,000
4. 2026-01-14
   price $92,500
5. 2026-01-03
   price $95,000
6. 2025-12-01
   price $99,000
7. 2025-11-17
   listed $109,000 Active
8. 2019-08-28
   soldstatus $27,500
9. 2019-08-28
   soldstatus $37,000
10. 2016-04-07
    soldstatus $12,000
11. 2016-04-07
    soldstatus $19,000
12. 2009-10-21
    soldstatus $11,000
13. 2007-10-29
    soldstatus $42,000
14. 2005-07-27
    soldstatus $90,000
15. 2004-06-14
    soldstatus $45,900
16. 2004-05-18
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,125 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,125 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,235
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,139
• − Management: −$1,139
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,075
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$978
• After-tax cash flow: $4,048/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jennings
• NCES district ID: 2916290
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,595
• Composite: 11.04/100
• National rank: #9739
• State rank: #315 of 324 in MO

Livability — Jennings

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #10499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jennings, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+134.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $87,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $92,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $95,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $99,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Listed $109,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
• 2016-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records
• 2009-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records
• 2007-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $45,900 Public Records
• 2004-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,125 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.