14053 N Trade Winds Way · Oro Valley, AZ 85755

$319,900

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1991 5,358 sqft lot $269/sqft · 22% below area Est $411k · 22% under $205/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the highly desirable 55+ community of Sun City Oro Valley. This property offers a functional layout with thoughtful upgrades, including a new roof in 2021 and tile flooring throughout high-traffic areas. The spacious kitchen features ample cabinet storage, built-in appliances, a two-tier breakfast bar, and a bright dining area that opens to the backyard through sliding glass doors. The primary suite includes vaulted ceilings, wood-look flooring, a walk-in closet, and a dual-sink bathroom. Step outside to a low-maintenance desert backyard complete with a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy a quiet lifestyle with access to top-tier amenities, including golf, pickleball, pools, fitness centers, and a variety of social and creative clubs. Ideally located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home offers both comfort and convenience in a vibrant active adult setting.

Key facts

• Built-in appliances
• Tile flooring
• Bright dining area

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• TILE FLOORING
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE
• BUILT-IN APPLIANCES
• TWO-TIER BREAKFAST BAR
• BRIGHT DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $306k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.2% in Oro Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#2 in AZ, #1,339 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living D-.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $243k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.04%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $410,661
• List price: $319,900
• Delta: -22.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14109 N Forthcamp Ct	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,190 (0%)	1mo	$351,000	$295	89
2255 E Montrose Canyon Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,221 (+3%)	3mo	$345,000	$283	80
2246 E Amaranth St	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,190 (0%)	3mo	$355,000	$298	74
2293 E Sausalito Trl	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,221 (+3%)	4mo	$300,000	$246	74
14301 N Trade Winds Way	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,093 (-8%)	2mo	$360,000	$329	65
14268 N Trade Winds Way	0.30mi	2/1.5	1,093 (-8%)	3mo	$320,000	$293	64
13660 N Tom Ryans Way	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,214 (+2%)	5mo	$389,000	$320	63
2247 E Jonquil St	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,298 (+9%)	2mo	$325,000	$250	61
2289 E Celosia Way	0.33mi	2/1.0	1,093 (-8%)	3mo	$330,000	$302	60
13467 N Tom Ryans Way	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,129 (-5%)	2mo	$385,000	$341	52
13672 N Tom Ryans Way	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,305 (+10%)	3mo	$444,000	$340	52
1629 E Broken Bow Way	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,328 (+12%)	4mo	$310,000	$233	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-42,079
• Equity at exit: $47,698

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-23,856
• Equity at exit: $27,659

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85755

• Home prices YoY: -20.4%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,059 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,982/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$205
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$642
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,866

Max offer price $319,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14269 N Trade Winds Way Oro Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1190	$2,750	$2.31	43d	1	0.28mi
14248 N Cirrus Hill Dr Oro Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1499	$3,800	$2.54	43d	1	0.29mi
14274 N Trade Winds Way Oro Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1499	$4,000	$2.67	43d	1	0.30mi
13385 N Vistoso Bluff Pl Oro Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,795	$1.42	23d	1	0.91mi
13299 N Wide View Dr Oro Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1495	$2,950	$1.97	43d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $205 · $2,460/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $319,900 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $319,900 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-05-04
   price $319,900 971-char remark

   Show marketing remark (971 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the highly desirable 55+ community of Sun City Oro Valley. This property offers a functional layout with thoughtful upgrades, including a new roof in 2021 and tile flooring throughout high-traffic areas. The spacious kitchen features ample cabinet storage, built-in appliances, a two-tier breakfast bar, and a bright dining area that opens to the backyard through sliding glass doors. The primary suite includes vaulted ceilings, wood-look flooring, a walk-in closet, and a dual-sink bathroom. Step outside to a low-maintenance desert backyard complete with a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy a quiet lifestyle with access to top-tier amenities, including golf, pickleball, pools, fitness centers, and a variety of social and creative clubs. Ideally located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home offers both comfort and convenience in a vibrant active adult setting.

4. 2026-04-16
   status Active 971-char remark

   Show marketing remark (971 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the highly desirable 55+ community of Sun City Oro Valley. This property offers a functional layout with thoughtful upgrades, including a new roof in 2021 and tile flooring throughout high-traffic areas. The spacious kitchen features ample cabinet storage, built-in appliances, a two-tier breakfast bar, and a bright dining area that opens to the backyard through sliding glass doors. The primary suite includes vaulted ceilings, wood-look flooring, a walk-in closet, and a dual-sink bathroom. Step outside to a low-maintenance desert backyard complete with a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy a quiet lifestyle with access to top-tier amenities, including golf, pickleball, pools, fitness centers, and a variety of social and creative clubs. Ideally located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home offers both comfort and convenience in a vibrant active adult setting.

5. 2026-04-16
   price $335,000 971-char remark

   Show marketing remark (971 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the highly desirable 55+ community of Sun City Oro Valley. This property offers a functional layout with thoughtful upgrades, including a new roof in 2021 and tile flooring throughout high-traffic areas. The spacious kitchen features ample cabinet storage, built-in appliances, a two-tier breakfast bar, and a bright dining area that opens to the backyard through sliding glass doors. The primary suite includes vaulted ceilings, wood-look flooring, a walk-in closet, and a dual-sink bathroom. Step outside to a low-maintenance desert backyard complete with a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy a quiet lifestyle with access to top-tier amenities, including golf, pickleball, pools, fitness centers, and a variety of social and creative clubs. Ideally located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home offers both comfort and convenience in a vibrant active adult setting.

6. 2025-11-04
   historical 971-char remark

   Show marketing remark (971 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the highly desirable 55+ community of Sun City Oro Valley. This property offers a functional layout with thoughtful upgrades, including a new roof in 2021 and tile flooring throughout high-traffic areas. The spacious kitchen features ample cabinet storage, built-in appliances, a two-tier breakfast bar, and a bright dining area that opens to the backyard through sliding glass doors. The primary suite includes vaulted ceilings, wood-look flooring, a walk-in closet, and a dual-sink bathroom. Step outside to a low-maintenance desert backyard complete with a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy a quiet lifestyle with access to top-tier amenities, including golf, pickleball, pools, fitness centers, and a variety of social and creative clubs. Ideally located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home offers both comfort and convenience in a vibrant active adult setting.

7. 2025-10-21
   status Active 971-char remark

   Show marketing remark (971 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the highly desirable 55+ community of Sun City Oro Valley. This property offers a functional layout with thoughtful upgrades, including a new roof in 2021 and tile flooring throughout high-traffic areas. The spacious kitchen features ample cabinet storage, built-in appliances, a two-tier breakfast bar, and a bright dining area that opens to the backyard through sliding glass doors. The primary suite includes vaulted ceilings, wood-look flooring, a walk-in closet, and a dual-sink bathroom. Step outside to a low-maintenance desert backyard complete with a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy a quiet lifestyle with access to top-tier amenities, including golf, pickleball, pools, fitness centers, and a variety of social and creative clubs. Ideally located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home offers both comfort and convenience in a vibrant active adult setting.

8. 2025-10-15
   historical 971-char remark

   Show marketing remark (971 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the highly desirable 55+ community of Sun City Oro Valley. This property offers a functional layout with thoughtful upgrades, including a new roof in 2021 and tile flooring throughout high-traffic areas. The spacious kitchen features ample cabinet storage, built-in appliances, a two-tier breakfast bar, and a bright dining area that opens to the backyard through sliding glass doors. The primary suite includes vaulted ceilings, wood-look flooring, a walk-in closet, and a dual-sink bathroom. Step outside to a low-maintenance desert backyard complete with a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy a quiet lifestyle with access to top-tier amenities, including golf, pickleball, pools, fitness centers, and a variety of social and creative clubs. Ideally located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home offers both comfort and convenience in a vibrant active adult setting.

9. 2025-08-27
   price $339,900 971-char remark

   Show marketing remark (971 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the highly desirable 55+ community of Sun City Oro Valley. This property offers a functional layout with thoughtful upgrades, including a new roof in 2021 and tile flooring throughout high-traffic areas. The spacious kitchen features ample cabinet storage, built-in appliances, a two-tier breakfast bar, and a bright dining area that opens to the backyard through sliding glass doors. The primary suite includes vaulted ceilings, wood-look flooring, a walk-in closet, and a dual-sink bathroom. Step outside to a low-maintenance desert backyard complete with a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy a quiet lifestyle with access to top-tier amenities, including golf, pickleball, pools, fitness centers, and a variety of social and creative clubs. Ideally located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home offers both comfort and convenience in a vibrant active adult setting.

10. 2025-07-25
    listed $360,000 Active 971-char remark

    Show marketing remark (971 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the highly desirable 55+ community of Sun City Oro Valley. This property offers a functional layout with thoughtful upgrades, including a new roof in 2021 and tile flooring throughout high-traffic areas. The spacious kitchen features ample cabinet storage, built-in appliances, a two-tier breakfast bar, and a bright dining area that opens to the backyard through sliding glass doors. The primary suite includes vaulted ceilings, wood-look flooring, a walk-in closet, and a dual-sink bathroom. Step outside to a low-maintenance desert backyard complete with a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy a quiet lifestyle with access to top-tier amenities, including golf, pickleball, pools, fitness centers, and a variety of social and creative clubs. Ideally located near shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home offers both comfort and convenience in a vibrant active adult setting.

11. 2024-10-10
    historical
12. 2024-09-15
    listed $375,000 Active
13. 2024-08-26
    historical
14. 2024-08-08
    historical
15. 2024-06-15
    price $379,900
16. 2024-06-13
    price $379,900
17. 2024-05-10
    price $391,000
18. 2024-05-10
    price $391,000
19. 2024-04-29
    historical
20. 2024-04-25
    listed $395,000 Active
21. 2024-04-25
    listed $395,000 Active
22. 2024-04-24
    listed $395,000 Active
23. 2006-02-27
    soldstatus $243,300
24. 2006-02-27
    soldstatus $243,300
25. 2006-01-05
    listed $247,900
26. 2005-12-31
    historical
27. 2005-11-14
    listed $248,900
28. 1992-05-14
    soldstatus $93,068

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,982 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,982 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$2,982
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,936
• − Management: −$2,936
• − HOA: −$2,460
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$3,435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$825
• After-tax cash flow: $2,648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Oro Valley

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #1339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oro Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 41,345
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 18,560
• Household income: $113,831
• Rent vs Own: 10.4% rent · 89.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 211.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.99%
• Current HPI: 254.1505
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+243.7% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $319,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $335,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-04 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-21 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-15 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $339,900 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-25 Listed $360,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-10-10 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2024-09-15 Listed $375,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-08-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-08-08 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2024-06-15 Price Changed $379,900 MLSSAZ
• 2024-06-13 Price Changed $379,900 ARMLS
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $391,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $391,000 ARMLS
• 2024-04-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-04-25 Listed $395,000 ARMLS
• 2024-04-25 Listed $395,000 ARMLS
• 2024-04-24 Listed $395,000 MLSSAZ
• 2006-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $243,300 Public Records
• 2006-02-27 Sold (MLS) $243,300 MLSSAZ
• 2006-01-05 Listed $247,900 MLSSAZ
• 2005-12-31 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2005-11-14 Listed $248,900 MLSSAZ
• 1992-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $93,068 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,982 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.