12011 Quail Falls Way · Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$675,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,981 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2013 9,178 sqft lot $226/sqft · 10% below area Est $747k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Greenbelt-backed gem in sought-after Kavala Ranch with OWNED SOLAR! POSSIBLY VA loan assumption at 2.75% (~$400,000)This well-maintained 4 bedroom, 3 bath home offers nearly 3,000 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space on a generous 9,147 sq ft lot. A desirable downstairs bedroom and full bath provide the perfect setup for guests, in-laws, or multigenerational living no stairs required. The open-concept floor plan creates seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas, while a versatile upstairs loft adds flexible space perfect for a home office, playroom, or media room. The kitchen opens directly to the main living space, maximizing functionality and natural light throu

Key facts

• Full bath
• Large covered patio
• Downstairs bedroom

Tags

• OWNED SOLAR
• DOWNSTAIRS BEDROOM
• FULL BATH
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• VERSATILE UPSTAIRS LOFT
• LARGE COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $675k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $339k (49.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (51.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (51.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 466 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $72k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $68k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$116k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($665k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $330,215 (51.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.07%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 17.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $747,251
• List price: $675,000
• Delta: -9.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4821 Heather Ranch Way	0.14mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,935 (-2%)	1mo	$785,000	$267	85
5010 Heather Ranch Way	0.15mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,935 (-2%)	5mo	$685,000	$233	82
5021 Birch Valley Way	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,885 (-3%)	5mo	$635,888	$220	79
12054 Quail Falls Way	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,768 (-7%)	13mo	$640,000	$231	69
5228 Mossy Stone Way	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,817 (-6%)	6mo	$640,000	$227	66
5501 Jade Springs Way	0.55mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,980 (-0%)	0mo	$725,000	$243	65
5394 Otter Pond Way	0.36mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,105 (+4%)	9mo	$760,000	$245	64
5345 Dusty Rose Way	0.35mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,785 (-7%)	4mo	$629,900	$226	63
5557 Copper Sunset Way	0.48mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,980 (-0%)	11mo	$672,500	$226	59
12088 Runswick Ct	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,817 (-6%)	4mo	$700,000	$248	59
5204 Azalea Park Way	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,650 (-11%)	11mo	$724,000	$273	56
4811 Copper Sunset Way	0.24mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,567 (-14%)	10mo	$620,000	$242	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $243,480
• Equity at exit: $608,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.27×
• Total profit: $806,206
• Equity at exit: $1,311,377

Cash invested: $189,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95742

• Home prices YoY: 28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 17.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,302 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,540
• Tax from tax record: −$689 /mo · $8,263/yr
• Insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $-1,901

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,708

Max offer price $339,201

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $168,750
• Closing costs: $20,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11965 Pericles Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2580	$2,900	$1.12	43d	1	0.78mi
11832 Stoney Ridge Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	2019	$2,695	$1.33	10d	1	0.93mi
4223 Anatolia Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.5	2876	$2,500	$0.87	23d	1	1.21mi
4221 Anatolia Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.5	2763	$3,195	$1.16	7d	1	1.22mi
11925 Cobblebrook Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2786	$3,595	$1.29	43d	1	1.39mi
4480 Arctic Tern Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	2550	$3,000	$1.18	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-05
   listed Active
2. 2010-12-30
   soldstatus $2,441,000
3. 2009-11-30
   soldstatus $1,952,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,263 · $689/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,263 · $689/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,626
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,810
• − Property taxes: −$8,263
• − Insurance: −$3,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,170
• − Management: −$3,170
• − Depreciation: −$19,636
• Taxable loss: −$35,799
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,592
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,768
• Household income: $155,855
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.05%
• Current HPI: 236.1388
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed — TheMLS
• 2010-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $2,441,000 Public Records
• 2009-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $1,952,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,263 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.