127 S Forest Ave · Joplin, MO 64801

$120,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · Other · 108 Days on market

Built 1950 6,250 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention all investors and flippers. Complete fixer upper with endless potential. Turn this home into a rental or renovate for yourself. Large front porch with handicap access ramp. Huge 2 car garage with heating and a work shop area complete with ceiling fans. Close to shopping, food & entertainment.

Key facts

• 6,250 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding; Block foundation; Composition roof; Built as a freestanding single-family home
• Exterior features: Deck; Chain link fencing; Landscaped yard; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 125

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Electric range
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Electric range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $772 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 5.1% in Joplin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#318 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Joplin Schools (urban): math 30% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #231 of 324 in MO (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mckinley Elem. (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #910 of 1,115 statewide, top 83%, 310 students, 81% FRL); East Middle (math 22% / reading 40%, grade F, #279 of 391 statewide, top 72%, 597 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 54% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 371 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 602 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.58%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $29,629
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $88,664
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64801

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,927 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $850/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $772

Break-even live

Break-even rent $950

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2528 E 15th St Joplin, MO	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,750	$1.53	20d	1	1.11mi
2811 E 15th St Joplin, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,500	$1.00	20d	1	1.18mi
2813 Waters Edge Blvd Joplin, MO	3.0	2.0	1751	$2,400	$1.37	20d	1	1.20mi
101 N Main Street Rd Unit 1806 Joplin, MO	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,300	$0.94	20d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 90 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 89 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 88 DOM
18. 2026-04-13
    price $120,000
19. 2026-03-02
    listed $130,000 Active
20. 2018-11-21
    soldstatus
21. 2018-11-20
    soldstatus 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Attention all investors and flippers. Complete fixer upper with endless potential. Turn this home into a rental or renovate for yourself. Large front porch with handicap access ramp. Huge 2 car garage with heating and a work shop area complete with ceiling fans. Close to shopping, food & entertainment.

22. 2018-10-04
    listed $29,000 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Attention all investors and flippers. Complete fixer upper with endless potential. Turn this home into a rental or renovate for yourself. Large front porch with handicap access ramp. Huge 2 car garage with heating and a work shop area complete with ceiling fans. Close to shopping, food & entertainment.

23. 2018-02-27
    soldstatus 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Investor alert! 4 bedroom/3 baths. Huge attached garage. Lots of potential. No warranties expressed on implied. Room sizes, square feet, and lot size approximate. Information obtained through tax records.

24. 2018-02-27
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Investor alert! 4 bedroom/3 baths. Huge attached garage. Lots of potential. No warranties expressed on implied. Room sizes, square feet, and lot size approximate. Information obtained through tax records.

25. 2017-09-05
    listed $18,050 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Investor alert! 4 bedroom/3 baths. Huge attached garage. Lots of potential. No warranties expressed on implied. Room sizes, square feet, and lot size approximate. Information obtained through tax records.

26. 2017-09-05
    listed $18,050

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Investor alert! 4 bedroom/3 baths. Huge attached garage. Lots of potential. No warranties expressed on implied. Room sizes, square feet, and lot size approximate. Information obtained through tax records.

27. 1985-12-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $850 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,164 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$314/yr (+$26/mo · 36.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,126
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$850
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,850
• − Management: −$1,850
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $7,763
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,863
• After-tax cash flow: $7,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joplin Schools
• NCES district ID: 2916350
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,648
• Composite: 28.82/100
• National rank: #6657
• State rank: #231 of 324 in MO

Livability — Joplin

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #14578

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Joplin, MO
• County: Jasper County · 79,035 people
• City population: 73,303
• Metro: Joplin, MO
• Population (ZIP): 36,287
• Household income: $52,620
• Rent vs Own: 46.7% rent · 53.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1710.0

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,033 people
• By 2030: 120,091 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 119,297 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 117,705 · -1.9%
• By 2075: 110,402 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 99,719 · -16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 25.9% · R 72.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.2pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+46.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.15%
• Current HPI: 248.5056
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Joplin, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+564.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $120,000 OGAR
• 2026-03-02 Listed $130,000 OGAR
• 2018-11-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-11-20 Sold (MLS) — OGAR
• 2018-10-04 Listed $29,000 OGAR
• 2018-02-27 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2018-02-27 Sold (MLS) — OGAR
• 2017-09-05 Listed $18,050 SOMO
• 2017-09-05 Listed $18,050 OGAR
• 1985-12-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $850 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.