15455 S Rolling Ridge Dr · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$185,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1974 9,147 sqft lot Est $134k · 38% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is the cutest house in Cordes Lakes, nestled in pines w gorgeous views. Incredible location, backs to state land, your own private reserve! Carefully & tastefully remodeled w vinyl planking, granite countertop in hall bath, quartz countertop in owner's suite. You will love the screened porch in back, large shed, & trellised front patio. Lots of privacy, a very elegant comfortable home. 2 bedrooms & 2 baths, split floor plan allows 2nd bedroom to feel like an ensuite room. New mini split and gas heater will keep you warm & cool economically. Includes all appliances! Lots of storage in the oversized kitchen. Fenced garden or puppy pen, you decide. Cash preferred, financing available by portfolio lenders at a higher interest rate but probably still cheaper than rent.

Key facts

• Updated interior
• New appliances
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• UPDATED INTERIOR
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE IN GUEST BATH
• QUARTZ IN PRIMARY SUITE
• FLEXIBLE SPLIT LAYOUT
• NEW APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R1-10; Lot about 0.21 acre (per county records); Road maintained by county; county road frontage with asphalt surface; Directions: E Stagecoach Trail, Left on Cactus Wren to Rolling Ridge, property on left
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic (WWT - septic conventional); Electricity available; Propane available (propane may be rented)
• Home design: Residential manufactured home; Single-wide; Single-story; Grand Prix plan type; Faces level/topography includes level areas and borders State/BLM
• Construction: Steel frame construction; Foam roof; Stem wall basement; Built area approximately 841 (building area total)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Dog run; Gravel driveway; Native landscaping (grass, juniper/pinon); Shed(s); Partial fencing; Views

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 total bathrooms (1 full, 1 three-quarter)
• Heating & cooling: Mini-split heating/cooling; Propane heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen with kitchen/dining combo; Drapes; No additional finished rooms listed
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Natural gas and propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($437/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.1% in Cordes Lakes — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,442 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.84%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15339 S Rolling Ridge Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	887 (+6%)	4mo	$150,000	$169	77
20555 E Park View Ln	0.48mi	2/2.0	840 (0%)	5mo	$168,900	$201	73
20715 E Larry Ln	0.50mi	2/1.5	840 (0%)	12mo	$130,000	$155	64
20770 E Zaragoza Dr	0.30mi	2/1.0	781 (-7%)	16mo	$125,000	$160	57
20537 E Yucca Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0	832 (-1%)	18mo	$165,000	$198	57
15931 S Rolling Ridge Dr	0.39mi	2/1.0	799 (-5%)	18mo	$105,000	$131	55
16128 S Papago Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0	785 (-6%)	4mo	$83,000	$106	52
20659 E Sierra Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0	930 (+11%)	17mo	$205,000	$220	51
20941 E Mesa Verde Rd	0.71mi	2/1.0	844 (+0%)	18mo	$125,000	$148	47
16071 S Yavapai Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	925 (+10%)	5mo	$52,000	$56	46
20644 E Cactus Wren Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0	922 (+10%)	23mo	$221,000	$240	45
20750 E Mingus Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0	721 (-14%)	16mo	$95,000	$132	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $103,099
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.83×
• Total profit: $301,837
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,664 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   price $185,000
3. 2026-02-07
   price $190,000
4. 2026-01-12
   listed $200,000 Active
5. 2024-01-15
   soldstatus $172,000 Closed 795-char remark

   Show marketing remark (795 chars)

   This is the cutest house in Cordes Lakes, nestled in pines w gorgeous views. Incredible location, backs to state land, your own private reserve! Carefully & tastefully remodeled w vinyl planking, granite countertop in hall bath, quartz countertop in owner's suite. You will love the screened porch in back, large shed, & trellised front patio. Lots of privacy, a very elegant comfortable home. 2 bedrooms & 2 baths, split floor plan allows 2nd bedroom to feel like an ensuite room. New mini split and gas heater will keep you warm & cool economically. Includes all appliances! Lots of storage in the oversized kitchen. Fenced garden or puppy pen, you decide. Cash preferred, financing available by portfolio lenders at a higher interest rate but probably still cheaper than rent.

6. 2023-12-22
   soldstatus $172,000 Closed 796-char remark

   Show marketing remark (796 chars)

   This is the cutest house in Cordes Lakes, nestled in pines w gorgeous views. Incredible location, backs to state land, your own private reserve! Carefully & tastefully remodeled w vinyl planking, granite countertop in hall bath, quartz countertop in owner's suite. You will love the screened porch in back, large shed, & trellised front patio. Lots of privacy, a very elegant comfortable home. 2 bedrooms & 2 baths, split floor plan allows 2nd bedroom to feel like an ensuite room. New mini split and gas heater will keep you warm & cool economically. Includes all appliances! Lots of storage in the oversized kitchen. Fenced garden or puppy pen, you decide. Cash preferred, financing available by portfolio lenders at a higher interest rate but probably still cheaper than rent.

7. 2023-12-22
   soldstatus $172,000

   Show marketing remark (796 chars)

   This is the cutest house in Cordes Lakes, nestled in pines w gorgeous views. Incredible location, backs to state land, your own private reserve! Carefully & tastefully remodeled w vinyl planking, granite countertop in hall bath, quartz countertop in owner's suite. You will love the screened porch in back, large shed, & trellised front patio. Lots of privacy, a very elegant comfortable home. 2 bedrooms & 2 baths, split floor plan allows 2nd bedroom to feel like an ensuite room. New mini split and gas heater will keep you warm & cool economically. Includes all appliances! Lots of storage in the oversized kitchen. Fenced garden or puppy pen, you decide. Cash preferred, financing available by portfolio lenders at a higher interest rate but probably still cheaper than rent.

8. 2023-12-03
   status Pending 795-char remark

   Show marketing remark (796 chars)

   This is the cutest house in Cordes Lakes, nestled in pines w gorgeous views. Incredible location, backs to state land, your own private reserve! Carefully & tastefully remodeled w vinyl planking, granite countertop in hall bath, quartz countertop in owner's suite. You will love the screened porch in back, large shed, & trellised front patio. Lots of privacy, a very elegant comfortable home. 2 bedrooms & 2 baths, split floor plan allows 2nd bedroom to feel like an ensuite room. New mini split and gas heater will keep you warm & cool economically. Includes all appliances! Lots of storage in the oversized kitchen. Fenced garden or puppy pen, you decide. Cash preferred, financing available by portfolio lenders at a higher interest rate but probably still cheaper than rent.

9. 2023-12-03
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 796-char remark

   Show marketing remark (796 chars)

   This is the cutest house in Cordes Lakes, nestled in pines w gorgeous views. Incredible location, backs to state land, your own private reserve! Carefully & tastefully remodeled w vinyl planking, granite countertop in hall bath, quartz countertop in owner's suite. You will love the screened porch in back, large shed, & trellised front patio. Lots of privacy, a very elegant comfortable home. 2 bedrooms & 2 baths, split floor plan allows 2nd bedroom to feel like an ensuite room. New mini split and gas heater will keep you warm & cool economically. Includes all appliances! Lots of storage in the oversized kitchen. Fenced garden or puppy pen, you decide. Cash preferred, financing available by portfolio lenders at a higher interest rate but probably still cheaper than rent.

10. 2023-12-01
    listed $169,900 Active 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    This is the cutest house in Cordes Lakes, nestled in pines w gorgeous views. Incredible location, backs to state land, your own private reserve! Carefully & tastefully remodeled w vinyl planking, granite countertop in hall bath, quartz countertop in owner's suite. You will love the screened porch in back, large shed, & trellised front patio. Lots of privacy, a very elegant comfortable home. 2 bedrooms & 2 baths, split floor plan allows 2nd bedroom to feel like an ensuite room. New mini split and gas heater will keep you warm & cool economically. Includes all appliances! Lots of storage in the oversized kitchen. Fenced garden or puppy pen, you decide. Cash preferred, financing available by portfolio lenders at a higher interest rate but probably still cheaper than rent.

11. 2023-11-16
    listed $169,900 Active 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (796 chars)

    This is the cutest house in Cordes Lakes, nestled in pines w gorgeous views. Incredible location, backs to state land, your own private reserve! Carefully & tastefully remodeled w vinyl planking, granite countertop in hall bath, quartz countertop in owner's suite. You will love the screened porch in back, large shed, & trellised front patio. Lots of privacy, a very elegant comfortable home. 2 bedrooms & 2 baths, split floor plan allows 2nd bedroom to feel like an ensuite room. New mini split and gas heater will keep you warm & cool economically. Includes all appliances! Lots of storage in the oversized kitchen. Fenced garden or puppy pen, you decide. Cash preferred, financing available by portfolio lenders at a higher interest rate but probably still cheaper than rent.

12. 2023-01-20
    soldstatus $70,000 Closed
13. 2023-01-20
    soldstatus $70,000
14. 2023-01-10
    status Pending
15. 2023-01-06
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,973
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$2,667
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$640
• After-tax cash flow: $1,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+117.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $185,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $190,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Listed $200,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-15 Sold (MLS) $172,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-22 Sold (MLS) $172,000 ARMLS
• 2023-12-03 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-03 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2023-12-01 Listed $169,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-16 Listed $169,900 ARMLS
• 2023-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-20 Sold (MLS) $70,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-10 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-06 Listed $85,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $210 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.