414 Arnica Dr · Watertown, MN 55388

$374,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,114 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2004 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing views of wildlife and sunrise over the pond.. This home is move in ready. Meticulously maintained, new roof/siding 2010 newer hot water heater, Appliances, Maintenance free decks, 10x12 Shed, Pool, garage is extra deep for larger trucks and heated. Don't miss out on this one!!

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2004

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached heated and insulated garage with garage door opener; 3-car garage (23' x 29'); Garage doors: one 16' wide by 8' high
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; 200+ amp electrical service with circuit breakers; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential split-entry (bi-level) home; Two levels (split entry)
• Construction: Built with block, brick, concrete and frame materials; Block foundation; Pitched asphalt roof (age 8 years or less)
• Exterior features: Composite decking and decks; Vinyl exterior; Pond on property; Storage shed; Irregular lot with light tree coverage; Property adjoins public land; City street frontage with curbs and paved streets (publicly maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen center island; Kitchen window; Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Microwave; Stainless steel appliances; Disposal; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (one on lower level, two on upper level)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on upper level; One three-quarter bathroom in basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Humidifier
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Natural woodwork; Paneled doors; Ceiling fan(s); Hardwood floors; Water softener (owned); Humidifier; Air-to-air exchanger; Finished basement; Daylight/lookout windows in basement; Drain tile and sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer hookups (lower level); Washer included; Dryer included; Laundry sink

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $374k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $358k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.5% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#251 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Watertown-Mayer Public School District (rural): math 43% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #106 of 301 in MN (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 682 units permitted in Carver County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carver County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($368k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $262k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $299,500 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.03%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-66,386
• Equity at exit: $55,765

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-65,345
• Equity at exit: $32,337

Cash invested: $104,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55388

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,961
• Tax from tax record: −$339 /mo · $4,070/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,109

Max offer price $358,058

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,500
• Closing costs: $11,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1190 Landings Ln Watertown, MN	4.0	3.0	2387	$2,995	$1.25	1d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-26
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-24
   listed $374,000 Active
4. 2026-04-22
   historical $374,000
5. 2017-05-15
   soldstatus $262,000
6. 2017-04-24
   soldstatus $262,000 Sold 288-char remark

   Show marketing remark (288 chars)

   Amazing views of wildlife and sunrise over the pond.. This home is move in ready. Meticulously maintained, new roof/siding 2010 newer hot water heater, Appliances, Maintenance free decks, 10x12 Shed, Pool, garage is extra deep for larger trucks and heated. Don't miss out on this one!!

7. 2017-04-06
   status Pending 288-char remark

   Show marketing remark (288 chars)

   Amazing views of wildlife and sunrise over the pond.. This home is move in ready. Meticulously maintained, new roof/siding 2010 newer hot water heater, Appliances, Maintenance free decks, 10x12 Shed, Pool, garage is extra deep for larger trucks and heated. Don't miss out on this one!!

8. 2017-03-28
   historical Contingent - Inspection 288-char remark

   Show marketing remark (288 chars)

   Amazing views of wildlife and sunrise over the pond.. This home is move in ready. Meticulously maintained, new roof/siding 2010 newer hot water heater, Appliances, Maintenance free decks, 10x12 Shed, Pool, garage is extra deep for larger trucks and heated. Don't miss out on this one!!

9. 2017-03-26
   listed $254,900 Active 288-char remark

   Show marketing remark (288 chars)

   Amazing views of wildlife and sunrise over the pond.. This home is move in ready. Meticulously maintained, new roof/siding 2010 newer hot water heater, Appliances, Maintenance free decks, 10x12 Shed, Pool, garage is extra deep for larger trucks and heated. Don't miss out on this one!!

10. 2005-01-04
    soldstatus $59,900
11. 2004-11-30
    soldstatus $206,570 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    The Montreal: 2 BR split w/3 car gar, Large foyer, vaulted ceiling, custom oak cabinets, oak rail,hardwood floors Kit & DR , insulated walls in garage w/ sheetrock,category one house w/ air exchanger, 92+ furnace, To be blt by Drake const.

12. 2004-06-25
    historical 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    The Montreal: 2 BR split w/3 car gar, Large foyer, vaulted ceiling, custom oak cabinets, oak rail,hardwood floors Kit & DR , insulated walls in garage w/ sheetrock,category one house w/ air exchanger, 92+ furnace, To be blt by Drake const.

13. 2004-03-04
    listed $205,185 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    The Montreal: 2 BR split w/3 car gar, Large foyer, vaulted ceiling, custom oak cabinets, oak rail,hardwood floors Kit & DR , insulated walls in garage w/ sheetrock,category one house w/ air exchanger, 92+ furnace, To be blt by Drake const.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,070 · $339/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,129 · $344/mo
• Expected delta: +$59/yr (+$5/mo · 1.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,950
• − Property taxes: −$4,070
• − Insurance: −$1,870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,875
• − Management: −$2,875
• − Depreciation: −$10,880
• Taxable loss: −$7,580
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,819
• After-tax cash flow: $736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown-Mayer Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2741910
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $74,803
• Composite: 43.87/100
• National rank: #2921
• State rank: #106 of 301 in MN

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #251
• US rank: #5405

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, MN
• City population: 5,974
• Population (ZIP): 5,974

Population outlook (Carver County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,077 people
• By 2030: 122,880 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 137,210 · +19.2%
• By 2050: 148,524 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 174,624 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 185,806 · +61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 19% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea, China

Political lean MEDSL · Carver

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.4) · D 46.3% · R 51.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.7pp toward D · 2008: -15.1pp · 2024: -5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.4 2020: R+4.9 2016: R+13.7 2012: R+19.7 2008: R+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.87%
• Current HPI: 241.5369
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+82.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-26 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $374,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Coming Soon $374,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $262,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-24 Sold (MLS) $262,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-06 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-28 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-26 Listed $254,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 2004-11-30 Sold (MLS) $206,570 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-25 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-04 Listed $205,185 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,070 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.