15814 Ridgerock Rd · Houston, TX 77489

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1978 10,187 sqft lot $83/sqft · 30% below area Est $200k · 30% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity in Missouri City! This 3-bedroom home is located in an established neighborhood and features a spacious layout, cozy fireplace, and large lot with a huge backyard offering great potential for entertaining or future improvements. Property is being sold AS-IS and will require updates and repairs. Ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking for a project. Buyer to independently verify room dimensions, schools, and all property information.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Huge backyard
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• COZY FIREPLACE
• LARGE LOT
• HUGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Community Improvement Association with $150 annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1978; Single-story (1,680 living area); Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 263 students, 89% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 835 students, 94% FRL); Willowridge H S (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 1,319 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 35% district-wide (55 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-33 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 186 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $196 of equity ($968 loan paydown + $-772 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.53%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,309
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -30.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15814 Ridgerock Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	1mo	$140,000	$83	99
15610 Briar Spring Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,719 (+2%)	3mo	$220,000	$128	73
6614 Villarreal Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,524 (-9%)	4mo	$69,900	$46	73
6407 Bazel Brook Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,644 (-2%)	1mo	$259,900	$158	72
15626 Briargate Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-6%)	4mo	$220,000	$140	71
6802 Jadwin Ct	0.10mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,860 (+11%)	1mo	$199,000	$107	66
7023 Maczali Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,472 (-12%)	1mo	$189,000	$128	62
16326 Napa Vine Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,670 (-1%)	1mo	$260,000	$156	61
6618 Castleview Ln	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,458 (-13%)	1mo	$260,000	$178	58
15903 Kenbrook Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-12%)	1mo	$245,000	$165	58
15403 Blueridge Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,833 (+9%)	0mo	$249,999	$136	56
7423 Maczali Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,475 (-12%)	4mo	$239,999	$163	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,348
• Equity at exit: $36,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $27,727
• Equity at exit: $41,338

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$385 /mo · $4,617/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,507

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6610 Rowell Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$2,056	$1.17	5d	1	0.36mi
6406 Summer Ridge Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,958	$1.21	2d	1	0.45mi
16211 Corsair Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1139	$1,813	$1.59	24d	1	0.47mi
16322 Petaluma Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1876	$1,770	$0.94	15d	1	0.56mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,513	$1.12	10d	1	0.71mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,481	$1.10	2d	1	0.71mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 16465 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,524	$1.13	43d	1	0.71mi
5721 Melanite Ave Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1634	$1,481	$0.91	19d	1	0.93mi
15703 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,615	$1.29	19d	1	0.96mi
15823 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,641	$1.23	5d	1	1.03mi
16603 Sentinel Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,799	$1.39	16d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 466-char remark
2. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 466-char remark
3. 2026-05-12
   listed $140,000 Active 466-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,617 · $385/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,617 · $385/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,807
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$4,617
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,770
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$425
• After-tax cash flow: $3,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $140,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,617 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.