7415 Bernadette Dr · Holley, FL 32566

$195,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1981 0.91 ac lot Est $267k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cabin in the woods with wonderful sunsets over East Bay. Horses allowed here. Plenty of access to East Bay to fish.

Key facts

• One acre of land
• 0.91 acre lot
• Built 1981

Tags

• ONE ACRE OF LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 0.91 acre lot (about 1/2 to less than 1 acre); Road surface: Other; Living area reported as 1,032 (public records)
• Financial info: Annual taxes reported; Property not homestead; No CDD
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: No water source; Other sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces northwest
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry features: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.2% in Holley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#698 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 768 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $195k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.22%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,288
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3101 Lynn Dr	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,054 (+2%)	21mo	$273,000	$259	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,453
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $27,304
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32566

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 768
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,119 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,811/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,588

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3661 London Rd Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,950	$1.50	23d	1	1.28mi
2634 Hidden Estates Cir Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1463	$2,200	$1.50	13d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-03-09
    price $195,000
17. 2026-02-10
    price $205,000
18. 2026-01-19
    price $213,000
19. 2026-01-12
    listed $225,000 Active
20. 2002-07-23
    soldstatus $63,600
21. 2002-07-16
    soldstatus $63,600 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET/CABIN IN THE WOODS EAST BAY VU**HORSES ALLOWED HERE. PLENTY OF ACCESS TO EAST BAY TO FISH. THIS LOAN IS ASSUMABLE VA WITH QUALIFIED BUYER. BANK PAYS MOST CLOSING COSTS.

22. 2002-07-16
    soldstatus $63,600 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET/CABIN IN THE WOODS EAST BAY VU**HORSES ALLOWED HERE. PLENTY OF ACCESS TO EAST BAY TO FISH. THIS LOAN IS ASSUMABLE VA WITH QUALIFIED BUYER. BANK PAYS MOST CLOSING COSTS.

23. 2002-03-27
    listed $68,000 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET/CABIN IN THE WOODS EAST BAY VU**HORSES ALLOWED HERE. PLENTY OF ACCESS TO EAST BAY TO FISH. THIS LOAN IS ASSUMABLE VA WITH QUALIFIED BUYER. BANK PAYS MOST CLOSING COSTS.

24. 2002-03-27
    listed $68,000 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET/CABIN IN THE WOODS EAST BAY VU**HORSES ALLOWED HERE. PLENTY OF ACCESS TO EAST BAY TO FISH. THIS LOAN IS ASSUMABLE VA WITH QUALIFIED BUYER. BANK PAYS MOST CLOSING COSTS.

25. 2001-06-26
    soldstatus $70,000
26. 1996-08-05
    soldstatus $50,000
27. 1996-08-05
    soldstatus $50,000
28. 1986-12-01
    soldstatus $30,000
29. 1984-10-01
    soldstatus $42,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,811 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,811 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,811
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $1,982
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$476
• After-tax cash flow: $4,559/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holley

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #698
• US rank: #14641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holley, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,883
• Household income: $105,551
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.87%
• Current HPI: 298.6821
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.74%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+355.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $213,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $63,600 Public Records
• 2002-07-16 Sold (MLS) $63,600 PARMLS
• 2002-07-16 Sold (MLS) $63,600 NAMLS
• 2002-03-27 Listed $68,000 PARMLS
• 2002-03-27 Listed $68,000 NAMLS
• 2001-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1996-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1996-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1986-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1984-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,811 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.