2 Rio Vista Ln · Red Bluff, CA 96080

$25,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1970 Est $21k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 2/1 in family park. Located right by the clubhouse.

Key facts

• Low maintenance yard
• Quiet setting
• Built 1970

Tags

• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD
• QUIET SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Has carport; Concrete and underground parking features
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Paved road access
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; Park zoning (MHPark)
• Construction: Metal siding; Mobile home model Lancer; 20-foot mobile length
• Exterior features: Covered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Range hood
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Range hood
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $748 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 45.4% vs local median 3.7% in Red Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#698 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Antelope Elementary (town): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #249 of 517 in CA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 262 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (44%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $23,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 45.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 139.61%
• DSCR: 7.21
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $20,800
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
184 Casa Grande Dr	0.19mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	4mo	$19,000	$26	71
18 Casa Grande Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	720 (-10%)	5mo	$17,000	$24	67
9 Casa Grande Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	880 (+10%)	9mo	$68,500	$78	62
44 Casa Grande Dr	0.32mi	2/1.0	868 (+8%)	10mo	$59,050	$68	62
172 Casa Grande Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	720 (-10%)	11mo	$15,000	$21	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.88×
• Total profit: $41,157
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.52×
• Total profit: $87,619
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96080

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $360/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $748

Break-even live

Break-even rent $301

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $25,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $25,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $25,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,000 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    price $39,000
19. 2026-04-16
    listed $45,000 Active
20. 2022-10-06
    soldstatus $35,000 Closed 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Nice 2/1 in family park. Located right by the clubhouse.

21. 2022-08-22
    listed $32,000 Active 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Nice 2/1 in family park. Located right by the clubhouse.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $360 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $360 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$360
• − Insurance: −$922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,198
• − Management: −$1,198
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $9,169
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,201
• After-tax cash flow: $6,774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antelope Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0602760
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,985
• Composite: 32.77/100
• National rank: #5630
• State rank: #249 of 517 in CA

Livability — Red Bluff

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #698
• US rank: #21144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tehama County · 31,554 people
• City population: 31,554
• Metro: Red Bluff, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,554
• Household income: $66,076
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 981.0

Population outlook (Tehama County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,058 people
• By 2030: 59,493 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 56,076 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 52,372 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 43,895 · -28.1%
• By 2100: 34,186 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 13% Native American 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Tehama

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 27.9% · R 69.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.80%
• Current HPI: 246.877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Red Bluff, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+21.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $39,000 TCAOR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $45,000 TCAOR
• 2022-10-06 Sold (MLS) $35,000 TCAOR
• 2022-08-22 Listed $32,000 TCAOR

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $360 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.