3801 E Hickory St · Decatur, IL 62526

$14,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1929 10,875 sqft lot $18/sqft · 76% below area ↓ 25% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor alert!! Perfect for fix & flip or rental portfolio. This 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom bungalow is located on a desirable corner lot of Decaturs Eastside. Close to Archer Daniel Midland and Decatur Lake.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1929
• Listed 52 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as residential single family home
• Exterior features: Deck; Gravel road access

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $798 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $14k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 70.6% vs local median 7.0% in Decatur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Decatur SD 61 (urban): math 3% / reading 6% proficiency, ranked #605 of 620 in IL (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $103 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $330 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $14,453 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 70.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 229.65%
• DSCR: 11.22
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,920
• List price: $14,900
• Delta: -75.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4314 E White St	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	822 (-1%)	15mo	$63,000	$77	59
1713 N 34th St	0.57mi	3/1.0	884 (+6%)	11mo	$66,000	$75	54
4504 Spruce St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-8%)	8mo	$93,000	$121	51
1539 N 32nd St	0.70mi	3/1.0	872 (+5%)	18mo	$40,000	$46	44
943 N 35th St	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	867 (+4%)	18mo	$40,000	$46	42
805 N 33rd St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	748 (-10%)	11mo	$55,000	$74	37
904 N 35th St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	744 (-11%)	21mo	$55,000	$74	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.74×
• Total profit: $48,961
• Equity at exit: $2,749

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 27.05×
• Total profit: $108,669
• Equity at exit: $2,212

Cash invested: $4,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62526

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,165 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$78
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $451/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $798

Break-even live

Break-even rent $154

Max offer price $14,900

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,725
• Closing costs: $447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $14,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $14,900 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $14,900 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $14,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $14,900 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $14,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $14,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $14,900 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $14,900 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $14,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $14,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $14,900 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $14,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $14,900 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $14,900 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $14,900 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $14,900 210-char remark
18. 2026-04-23
    listed $19,900 Active 210-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $451 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $451 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$835
• − Property taxes: −$451
• − Insurance: −$74
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,118
• − Management: −$1,118
• − Depreciation: −$433
• Taxable income: $9,949
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,388
• After-tax cash flow: $7,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur SD 61
• NCES district ID: 1711850
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 6% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,864
• Composite: 3.99/100
• National rank: #10059
• State rank: #605 of 620 in IL

Livability — Decatur

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #20533

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Decatur, IL
• County: Macon County · 78,333 people
• City population: 78,333
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,483
• Household income: $49,062
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1041.0

Population outlook (Macon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,568 people
• By 2030: 94,973 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 85,250 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 75,920 · -23.8%
• By 2075: 55,962 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 36,468 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 22% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macon

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.8% · R 58.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 1.1pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+17.7 2016: R+18.1 2012: R+5.2 2008: D+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.21%
• Current HPI: 182.871
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-25.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $14,900 CIBR
• 2026-04-23 Listed $19,900 CIBR

Property tax history

-4.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $451 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.