21481 Randsburg Mojave Rd · California City, CA 93505

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,676 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 245 Days on market

Built 1989 10,454 sqft lot $143/sqft · 30% below area Est $343k · 30% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INCREDIBLE OPPORTUNITY FOR FLIPPERS OR INVESTORS! California City, a small town that has room for growth. With local restaurants, shopping, parks and schools. This nice 3 bedroom, 1 and ¾ bath with a fireplace in living room also has ceiling fans in Living room and main bedroom. Central air conditioning, evaporative cooler, stove and, a refrigerator. Fenced back yards, 2 car garage and RV parking possible. With sewer, SCE, public water and natural gas. The main bathroom needs to be remodeled. Buyer to verify all needed building requirements. This is a probate sale, and all offers will need to be approved by the court and escrow period 90 days at least. AS IS SALE

Key facts

• Ceiling fans
• Fenced back yards
• Rv parking possible

Tags

• FIREPLACE IN LIVING ROOM
• CEILING FANS
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• FENCED BACK YARDS
• RV PARKING POSSIBLE
• PUBLIC WATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($875/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.2% in California City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $239k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,875 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.31%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,209
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -30.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10549 Camille Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-10%)	1mo	$319,000	$212	70
21745 Upton Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,514 (-10%)	2mo	$300,000	$198	68
21631 Sheridan Ct	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,792 (+7%)	4mo	$389,000	$217	66
10701 Bay Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,629 (-3%)	5mo	$335,000	$206	63
21420 Reed Pl	0.20mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,858 (+11%)	1mo	$379,900	$204	63
10840 Evelyn Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,845 (+10%)	6mo	$305,000	$165	62
11043 Rome Beauty Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,505 (-10%)	3mo	$270,000	$179	61
10611 Garibaldi Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-10%)	1mo	$175,000	$117	57
21750 Bancroft Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,809 (+8%)	6mo	$320,000	$177	48
21251 Calhoun Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,429 (-15%)	4mo	$330,000	$231	38
21231 Calhoun Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,429 (-15%)	4mo	$331,000	$232	37
21241 Calhoun Ct	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,429 (-15%)	2mo	$323,000	$226	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $139,891
• Equity at exit: $215,310

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.27×
• Total profit: $419,693
• Equity at exit: $464,324

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93505

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,029 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,122/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,936

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21398 Baldwin Ln California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1527	$2,000	$1.31	2d	1	0.33mi
10193 Evelyn Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,150	$1.33	14d	1	0.74mi
21319 Conklin Ct California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1816	$2,200	$1.21	43d	1	0.88mi
21187 Conklin Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,800	$1.22	14d	1	0.91mi
9931 Putter Ct California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,675	$1.16	3d	1	0.94mi
21235 Windsong St California City, CA	3.0	3.0	1780	$2,100	$1.18	23d	1	0.95mi
9548 Sally Ave Unit B California City, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,695	$1.41	23d	1	1.33mi
9524 Sally Ave Unit C California City, CA	2.0	1.5	1140	$1,300	$1.14	23d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-11-01
   price $239,000 678-char remark

   Show marketing remark (678 chars)

   INCREDIBLE OPPORTUNITY FOR FLIPPERS OR INVESTORS! California City, a small town that has room for growth. With local restaurants, shopping, parks and schools. This nice 3 bedroom, 1 and ¾ bath with a fireplace in living room also has ceiling fans in Living room and main bedroom. Central air conditioning, evaporative cooler, stove and, a refrigerator. Fenced back yards, 2 car garage and RV parking possible. With sewer, SCE, public water and natural gas. The main bathroom needs to be remodeled. Buyer to verify all needed building requirements. This is a probate sale, and all offers will need to be approved by the court and escrow period 90 days at least. AS IS SALE

2. 2025-09-24
   listed $250,000 Active 678-char remark

   Show marketing remark (678 chars)

   INCREDIBLE OPPORTUNITY FOR FLIPPERS OR INVESTORS! California City, a small town that has room for growth. With local restaurants, shopping, parks and schools. This nice 3 bedroom, 1 and ¾ bath with a fireplace in living room also has ceiling fans in Living room and main bedroom. Central air conditioning, evaporative cooler, stove and, a refrigerator. Fenced back yards, 2 car garage and RV parking possible. With sewer, SCE, public water and natural gas. The main bathroom needs to be remodeled. Buyer to verify all needed building requirements. This is a probate sale, and all offers will need to be approved by the court and escrow period 90 days at least. AS IS SALE

3. 1991-12-26
   soldstatus $97,500
4. 1991-12-26
   soldstatus $97,500
5. 1989-10-23
   soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,122 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,122 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$2,122
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,948
• − Management: −$1,948
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$3,208
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$770
• After-tax cash flow: $1,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mojave Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,017
• Composite: 21.4/100
• National rank: #8350
• State rank: #411 of 517 in CA

Livability — California City

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1329
• US rank: #26753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California City, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 14,353
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,353
• Household income: $59,827
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 22% Two or more races 16% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.32%
• Current HPI: 402.4192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1607.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $239,000 AVMLS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $250,000 AVMLS
• 1991-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records
• 1991-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records
• 1989-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,122 · -5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.