11211 Moravia Rd · Rockwood, VA 23112

$310,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1984 0.46 ac lot $269/sqft · 8% below area Est $337k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for first home or investment home !! Excellent neighborhood . Home has 3 spacious bedrooms . eat-in kitchen , carport / with attached storage . Large yard for new family gatherings . Home needs some TLC - price reflects . .. . NEW PRICE 2/12 priced to sell now This would be a great investment home or first time home buyer to start out in. .. don't miss out . Excellent value for area !

Key facts

• Large deck
• New flooring
• Spacious back yard

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS
• LARGE DECK
• SPACIOUS BACK YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Above-grade finished living area reported; Resale condition; Zoned R15
• Construction: Brick, block and drywall construction; Built (year reported as actual)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Paved driveway; Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with laminate wood floors
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on the main level; Bedroom 2 with carpet (approx. 11.0 x 10.11); Bedroom 3 with carpet (approx. 12.4 x 7.8); Additional bedroom (approx. 14.4 x 11.2)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Laminate/Laminate wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub and shower (main level); One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Main level primary; Laminate wood floors in kitchen and family room; Laminate floors in dining room; Carpet in bedrooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-218 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.2% in Rockwood — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#86 in VA, #2,803 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 492 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $164k; list at $310k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,410 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.02%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,972
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: -8.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11503 Deep Hollow Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,118 (-3%)	2mo	$340,000	$304	79
10819 Poachers Run	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,214 (+5%)	2mo	$380,000	$313	73
11431 Brandenburg Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,254 (+9%)	3mo	$348,500	$278	68
5107 Spring Bluff Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	2mo	$378,000	$315	64
10908 August Ct	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-10%)	1mo	$279,990	$269	63
11531 Bailey Woods Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,088 (-6%)	3mo	$330,000	$303	62
11548 New Forest Trl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,038 (-10%)	1mo	$330,000	$318	61
10507 Oakforest Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	3mo	$352,500	$282	60
5107 Morning Dove Mews	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,234 (+7%)	3mo	$355,000	$288	56
5012 Alberta Rd	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,006 (-13%)	1mo	$270,000	$268	56
5112 Rollingway Rd	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-10%)	0mo	$291,000	$280	51
11042 Poachers Run	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,324 (+15%)	2mo	$385,000	$291	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-65,789
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-81,849
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23112

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 492
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,204 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,458/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,481

Max offer price $271,410

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4613 Bridgewood Rd Midlothian, VA	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,995	$1.89	2d	1	0.89mi
9906 Family Ln Chesterfield, VA	3.0	1.0	1274	$1,888	$1.48	44d	1	0.94mi
3900 Maze Runner Dr Midlothian, VA	2.0	2.0	1229	$1,825	$1.48	10d	2	1.25mi
3900 Maze Runner Dr #201 Midlothian, VA	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,950	$1.69	3d	1	1.26mi
4100 Lonas Pkwy Midlothian, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	969	$2,319	$2.39	2d	20	1.27mi
4000 Maze Runner Dr Midlothian, VA	2.0	2.0	1302	$2,200	$1.69	20d	1	1.29mi
3310 Old Courthouse Rd North Chesterfield, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	880	$2,408	$2.74	3d	9	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 404-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   price $310,000 404-char remark
3. 2026-05-07
   listed $325,000 Active 404-char remark
4. 2020-04-06
   soldstatus $164,500 Closed 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Great opportunity for first home or investment home !! Excellent neighborhood . Home has 3 spacious bedrooms . eat-in kitchen , carport / with attached storage . Large yard for new family gatherings . Home needs some TLC - price reflects . .. . NEW PRICE 2/12 priced to sell now This would be a great investment home or first time home buyer to start out in. .. don't miss out . Excellent value for area !

5. 2020-03-30
   soldstatus $164,500
6. 2020-02-17
   status Pending 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Great opportunity for first home or investment home !! Excellent neighborhood . Home has 3 spacious bedrooms . eat-in kitchen , carport / with attached storage . Large yard for new family gatherings . Home needs some TLC - price reflects . .. . NEW PRICE 2/12 priced to sell now This would be a great investment home or first time home buyer to start out in. .. don't miss out . Excellent value for area !

7. 2020-02-12
   price $165,500 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Great opportunity for first home or investment home !! Excellent neighborhood . Home has 3 spacious bedrooms . eat-in kitchen , carport / with attached storage . Large yard for new family gatherings . Home needs some TLC - price reflects . .. . NEW PRICE 2/12 priced to sell now This would be a great investment home or first time home buyer to start out in. .. don't miss out . Excellent value for area !

8. 2019-12-29
   price $179,900 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Great opportunity for first home or investment home !! Excellent neighborhood . Home has 3 spacious bedrooms . eat-in kitchen , carport / with attached storage . Large yard for new family gatherings . Home needs some TLC - price reflects . .. . NEW PRICE 2/12 priced to sell now This would be a great investment home or first time home buyer to start out in. .. don't miss out . Excellent value for area !

9. 2019-12-04
   listed $189,950 Active 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Great opportunity for first home or investment home !! Excellent neighborhood . Home has 3 spacious bedrooms . eat-in kitchen , carport / with attached storage . Large yard for new family gatherings . Home needs some TLC - price reflects . .. . NEW PRICE 2/12 priced to sell now This would be a great investment home or first time home buyer to start out in. .. don't miss out . Excellent value for area !

10. 2004-06-07
    soldstatus $120,000
11. 1994-06-01
    soldstatus $71,700
12. 1985-10-31
    soldstatus $50,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,458 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,542 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$84/yr (+$7/mo · 3.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$2,458
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,116
• − Management: −$2,116
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$8,174
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,962
• After-tax cash flow: $-660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Rockwood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #86
• US rank: #2803

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 57,016
• Household income: $116,465
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 897.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.87%
• Current HPI: 277.4841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+517.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $310,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $325,000 CVRMLS
• 2020-04-06 Sold (MLS) $164,500 CVRMLS
• 2020-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $164,500 Public Records
• 2020-02-17 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2020-02-12 Price Changed $165,500 CVRMLS
• 2019-12-29 Price Changed $179,900 CVRMLS
• 2019-12-04 Listed $189,950 CVRMLS
• 2004-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 1994-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $71,700 Public Records
• 1985-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $50,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,458 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.