333 Rainbow Dr · Lakehills, TX 78063

$119,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 2000 7,187 sqft lot $69/sqft · 57% below area $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Handyman special with strong upside. Interior needs paint, new flooring, and an HVAC system, while key upgrades are already in place-including a metal roof, PEX plumbing, and updated electrical. The flexible floor plan offers potential for a separate mother-in-law suite or second living area. Situated on a lovely, level lot with a fenced backyard. Excellent investment opportunity with Medina Lake access through Pebble Beach POA parks.

Key facts

• Medina lake access
• Updated electrical
• Metal roof

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• PEX PLUMBING
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• FENCED BACKYARD
• MEDINA LAKE ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $519 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 2.3% in Lakehills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#963 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 267 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,745 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.63%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,376
• List price: $119,500
• Delta: -56.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
148 Lakeshore Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,715 (-1%)	11mo	$345,000	$201	76
427 Black Bass Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,784 (+3%)	23mo	$249,000	$140	68
421 Rainbow	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-15%)	6mo	$285,000	$193	66
308 Black Bass	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,524 (-12%)	13mo	$278,000	$182	63
400 Black Bass Rd	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (-7%)	16mo	$250,000	$155	62
140 Water View Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-9%)	15mo	$300,000	$191	61
496 Black Bass Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+11%)	21mo	$199,900	$104	53
559 Lookout Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,876 (+9%)	19mo	$350,000	$187	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $13,756
• Equity at exit: $17,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $54,734
• Equity at exit: $10,332

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78063

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,002/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $519

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,073

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
488 Black Bass Rd Lakehills, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	1d	1	0.24mi
1923 Pebble Beach Rd Lakehills, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,900	$1.35	1d	1	0.39mi
912 Pebble Beach Rd NW Lakehills, TX	3.0	1.5	1820	$2,000	$1.10	23d	1	0.81mi
13689 Farm to Market Road 1283 Unit 1 Mico, TX	2.0	1.0	1175	$1,450	$1.23	20d	1	1.27mi
254 Kens Rd Pipe Creek, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,500	$0.96	24d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,500 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,500 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,500 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $119,500 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,500 Price Change 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,500 Price Change 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,500 Price Change 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   pricestatusdays on market $119,500 Price Change 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $125,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-03-18
    listed $125,000 New 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    Handyman special with strong upside. Interior needs paint, new flooring, and an HVAC system, while key upgrades are already in place-including a metal roof, PEX plumbing, and updated electrical. The flexible floor plan offers potential for a separate mother-in-law suite or second living area. Situated on a lovely, level lot with a fenced backyard. Excellent investment opportunity with Medina Lake access through Pebble Beach POA parks.

14. 2021-02-02
    soldstatus
15. 2003-12-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,002 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,187 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$184/yr (+$15/mo · 9.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$2,002
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable income: $4,621
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,109
• After-tax cash flow: $5,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bandera ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809360
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,771
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6194
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakehills

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #963
• US rank: #17024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakehills, TX
• City population: 10,594
• Population (ZIP): 10,594

Population outlook (Bandera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,614 people
• By 2030: 23,102 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 23,489 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 23,264 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 23,607 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 22,265 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bandera

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.6% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -50.4pp · 2024: -61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+59.4 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+59.0 2008: R+50.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.38%
• Current HPI: 189.1086
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $125,000 LERA
• 2021-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-12-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,002 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.