25501 Surry Ave · Matoaca, VA 23803

$109,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1945 2,500 sqft lot Est $109k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor-Friendly Opportunity or Ideal Starter Home in Dinwiddie / Petersburg Area Welcome to this value-packed home located in the desirable Dinwiddie–Petersburg area, offering a great opportunity for either investors and owner-occupants. The property is in the back of a quiet, safe neighborhood and has seen several recent updates including a new roof and appliances, providing a solid foundation while still leaving room for additional improvements and value-add potential. The home features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, making it ideal as a starter home or a rental investment. Recent upgrades help reduce immediate capital expenses, while remaining cosmetic and

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Functional layout
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• RECENT UPDATES
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.8% in Matoaca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#178 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Dinwiddie County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #81 of 131 in VA (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Dinwiddie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($757 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Dinwiddie County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $110k implies a 213% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 45% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,215 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.81%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $108,680
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25501 Surry Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	520 (0%)	1mo	$108,690	$209	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 5.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $27,236
• Equity at exit: $39,961

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $87,516
• Equity at exit: $55,159

Cash invested: $30,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23803

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$574
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $326/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $819

Max offer price $109,500

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $364	-5% $333	+0% $302	+5% $271	+10% $240
Rent	-10% $207	-5% $254	+0% $302	+5% $349	+10% $397
Rate	-1.0pp $357	-0.5pp $330	base $302	+0.5pp $273	+1.0pp $245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,375
• Closing costs: $3,285
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   price $109,500
3. 2026-03-05
   status Active
4. 2026-02-01
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-23
   listed $119,500 Active
6. 2026-01-11
   historical
7. 2025-11-16
   price $134,500
8. 2025-10-27
   status Active
9. 2025-10-11
   listed $139,500 Active
10. 2021-02-01
    soldstatus $35,000
11. 2020-11-05
    status Active
12. 2020-11-05
    price $39,500
13. 2020-09-12
    price $44,500
14. 2020-09-05
    listed $49,900 Active
15. 2014-08-22
    historical
16. 2014-04-02
    listed $26,000
17. 2014-03-21
    historical
18. 2013-11-27
    listed $26,000
19. 2013-05-01
    historical
20. 2012-11-04
    listed $35,000
21. 2007-08-15
    soldstatus $25,000
22. 2007-05-18
    listed $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $326 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$572/yr (+$48/mo · 175.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 45% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,134
• − Property taxes: −$326
• − Insurance: −$548
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,153
• − Management: −$1,153
• − Depreciation: −$3,185
• Taxable income: $1,913
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$459
• After-tax cash flow: $3,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dinwiddie County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101170
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,857
• Composite: 46.62/100
• National rank: #2413
• State rank: #81 of 131 in VA

Livability — Matoaca

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #5429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 63,420
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 42,012
• Household income: $57,813
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2485.0

Population outlook (Dinwiddie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,876 people
• By 2030: 27,480 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 26,285 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 24,617 · -11.7%
• By 2075: 21,647 · -22.3%
• By 2100: 18,485 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Dinwiddie

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.1% · R 61.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+12.4 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 480.5365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.89%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+180.8% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $109,500 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-02-01 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $119,500 CVRMLS
• 2026-01-11 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $134,500 CVRMLS
• 2025-10-27 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2025-10-11 Listed $139,500 CVRMLS
• 2021-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-05 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2020-11-05 Price Changed $39,500 CVRMLS
• 2020-09-12 Price Changed $44,500 CVRMLS
• 2020-09-05 Listed $49,900 CVRMLS
• 2014-08-22 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2014-04-02 Listed $26,000 CVRMLS
• 2014-03-21 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2013-11-27 Listed $26,000 CVRMLS
• 2013-05-01 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2012-11-04 Listed $35,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-08-15 Sold (MLS) $25,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-05-18 Listed $39,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $326 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.