628 Big Horn St · Thermopolis, WY 82443

$70,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 884 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1917 8,276 sqft lot $79/sqft · 56% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great project home on a nice lot. Ideal for building or improving.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Built 1917
• Listed 33 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residential property
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($856 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.8% in Thermopolis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#12 in WY, #3,016 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hot Springs County School District #1 (town): math 66% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #3 of 41 in WY (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ralph Witters Elementary (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #30 of 151 statewide, top 26%, 242 students, 42% FRL); Thermopolis Middle School (math 77% / reading 74%, grade A, #1 of 55 statewide, top 0%, 197 students, 42% FRL); Hot Springs County High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #33 of 75 statewide, top 49%, 203 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Hot Springs County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hot Springs County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.27%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,734
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -56.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
721 Broadway St	0.22mi	1/1.0	860 (-3%)	2mo	$56,000	$65	84
720 Richards St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (+1)	973 (+10%)	1mo	$130,000	$134	52
128 Clark St	0.59mi	2/1.8 (+1)	897 (+2%)	18mo	$198,000	$221	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $5,554
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $26,505
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 82443

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $174/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $520

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $70,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $70,000 Active 360-char remark
18. 2020-12-04
    soldstatus 66-char remark

    Show marketing remark (66 chars)

    Great project home on a nice lot. Ideal for building or improving.

19. 2019-05-15
    listed $35,000 66-char remark

    Show marketing remark (66 chars)

    Great project home on a nice lot. Ideal for building or improving.

20. 1993-07-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $174 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $427 · $36/mo
• Expected delta: +$253/yr (+$21/mo · 145.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$174
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$822
• − Management: −$822
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $2,151
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$516
• After-tax cash flow: $2,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hot Springs County School District #1
• NCES district ID: 5603310
• Math proficiency: 66% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,061
• Composite: 55.18/100
• National rank: #1275
• State rank: #3 of 41 in WY

Livability — Thermopolis

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #3016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thermopolis, WY
• Population (ZIP): 4,534

Population outlook (Hot Springs County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,645 people
• By 2030: 4,542 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 4,371 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 4,337 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 4,479 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 4,570 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Serbian 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hot Springs

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.2) · D 18.7% · R 80.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: -47.7pp · 2024: -61.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.2 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+60.7 2012: R+55.0 2008: R+47.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.70%
• Current HPI: 325.59
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $70,000 WMLS
• 2020-12-04 Sold (MLS) — WMLS
• 2019-05-15 Listed $35,000 WMLS
• 1993-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $174 · -22.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.