6509 Silver Lake Rd · Linden, MI 48451

$245,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,792 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 1968 0.46 ac lot Est $353k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this quaint home located in the desirable heart of Linden! Property features a spacious, fenced in back yard for ultimate entertainment! Fresh new paint through out, vaulted living room ceiling, new kitchen light fixture and new faucets in the kitchen and half bath. Full partially finished basement gives extra living space and a cozy fireplace! Washer, dryer, refrigerator and stove are included. Don't miss the opportunity on this one!!!! More photos to come!!!

Key facts

• Fenced in back yard
• Cozy fireplace
• 0.46 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• VAULTED LIVING ROOM CEILING
• COZY FIREPLACE
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; Carport; No garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One level (ground level entry with steps)
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Front porch; Back yard fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Fireplace in the basement; Partially finished basement; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (2.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.8% in Linden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#170 in MI, #4,456 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Linden Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #119 of 540 in MI (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $245k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $239,500 (2.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.36%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $353,024
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7103 Silver Lake Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,767 (-1%)	8mo	$270,000	$153	78
6452 Sandy Knoll Knl	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,800 (+0%)	19mo	$340,000	$189	68
6300 Silver Lake Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,808 (+1%)	15mo	$275,000	$152	65
14388 Oak Leaf Trl	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,806 (+1%)	14mo	$350,000	$194	61
14458 Oak Leaf Trl	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,704 (-5%)	14mo	$340,000	$200	56
14479 Oak Leaf Trl	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,828 (+2%)	24mo	$360,000	$197	52
15215 Restwood Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,666 (-7%)	9mo	$575,000	$345	51
14459 Oak Leaf Trl	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,634 (-9%)	13mo	$360,000	$220	49
222 Chestnut Way	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,605 (-10%)	14mo	$295,000	$184	45
709 Byram Lake Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-13%)	21mo	$460,000	$295	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-20,218
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $7,399
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48451

• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,395 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,386/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,007

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16530 Bedington Dr Linden, MI	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,395	$1.38	5d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $245,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   remarks 475-char remark
4. 2026-06-09
   listed $245,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,386 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,079 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: +$694/yr (+$58/mo · 29.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,386
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,299
• − Management: −$2,299
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$320
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$77
• After-tax cash flow: $3,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Linden Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2621690
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $69,129
• Composite: 41.24/100
• National rank: #3532
• State rank: #119 of 540 in MI

Livability — Linden

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #4456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,993

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Arabic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -218.03%
• Current HPI: 260.4332
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+106.1% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $245,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-08 Listed $245,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-18 Sold (MLS) $112,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-05-18 Sold (MLS) $112,000 REALCOMP
• 2015-02-26 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-12-09 Listed $112,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-12-09 Listed $112,900 REALCOMP
• 2012-07-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2012-07-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-12-12 Listed $87,900 REALCOMP
• 2011-12-12 Listed $87,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-11-08 Sold (MLS) $53,000 REALCOMP
• 2007-11-08 Sold (MLS) $53,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-10-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-07-09 Listed $64,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-07-09 Listed $64,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-24 Sold (MLS) $117,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-05-24 Sold (MLS) $117,000 REALCOMP
• 2002-05-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-03-11 Listed $118,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-03-11 Listed $118,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,386 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.