6987 S Avalon Dr · Three Points, AZ 85735

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Other public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1964 4.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4.32-acre property offering a unique opportunity for renovation and customization. The home has been taken down to the studs, providing a blank slate for a buyer to complete improvements to their own specifications. Electrical service has been run to the home, and a new electrical panel has been installed. The septic system was recently certified, and the shared well has been upgraded and serves only three properties. Enjoy the privacy and open space of this rural setting with expansive desert and mountain views. Buyer to verify all facts, figures, permits, zoning, utilities, and intended use during the inspection period.

Key facts

• Upgraded shared well
• New electrical panel
• 4.32-acre property

Tags

• 4.32-ACRE PROPERTY
• NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL
• UPGRADED SHARED WELL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Tucson - RH
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Utilities: Private registered well for water; Septic tank sewage
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame with stucco exterior; Built-up reflective roof; Built in (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Barbed wire fencing; Dirt road access; road maintained by owner; East/West and North/South exposure

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Fixer condition

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.8% in Three Points — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#286 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Altar Valley Elementary District (4418) (rural): math 15% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #202 of 249 in AZ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Robles Elementary School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 389 students, 79% FRL); Altar Valley Middle School (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 196 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 14 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.33%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,932
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $44,067
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85735

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $573/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,365

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 629-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $160,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2025-11-12
   price $165,000
8. 2025-11-12
   listed $165,000 Active
9. 2025-07-03
   historical
10. 2025-07-01
    status Active
11. 2025-06-17
    historical Active Contingent
12. 2025-05-05
    listed $180,000 Active
13. 2025-05-01
    historical
14. 2025-02-20
    listed $180,000 Active
15. 2023-06-28
    soldstatus $145,000 Closed
16. 2023-06-28
    soldstatus $145,000
17. 2023-06-20
    status Pending
18. 2023-06-12
    historical Active Contingent
19. 2023-06-08
    status Active
20. 2023-06-08
    historical Active Contingent
21. 2023-05-25
    listed $149,000 Active
22. 2023-03-10
    soldstatus $85,000 Closed
23. 2023-03-10
    soldstatus $85,000
24. 2023-03-04
    status Pending
25. 2023-02-28
    historical Active Contingent
26. 2023-02-27
    status Active
27. 2023-02-22
    price $85,000
28. 2023-02-19
    historical Active Contingent
29. 2023-02-15
    status Active
30. 2023-02-14
    price $95,000
31. 2023-02-07
    historical Active Contingent
32. 2023-01-12
    price $105,000
33. 2022-12-12
    price $122,000
34. 2022-11-05
    price $129,900
35. 2022-09-20
    price $139,000
36. 2022-09-08
    listed $150,000 Active
37. 2018-07-27
    status Pending
38. 2018-07-27
    soldstatus $17,500 Closed
39. 2018-07-27
    soldstatus $17,500
40. 2018-07-20
    historical Active Contingent
41. 2018-06-12
    price $25,900
42. 2018-05-03
    price $29,000
43. 2018-04-11
    listed $33,000 Active
44. 2016-02-22
    soldstatus $24,000 Closed
45. 2016-02-06
    status Pending
46. 2015-09-24
    price $29,900
47. 2015-03-06
    status Active
48. 2015-02-27
    historical Active Contingent
49. 2015-02-16
    listed $35,000 Active
50. 2010-01-17
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $573 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,056 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$483/yr (+$40/mo · 84.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone A · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$573
• − Insurance: −$2,302
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,899
• − Management: −$1,899
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $3,450
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$828
• After-tax cash flow: $4,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Altar Valley Elementary District (4418)
• NCES district ID: 0404770
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,645
• Composite: 14.52/100
• National rank: #9420
• State rank: #202 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Three Points

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #24371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,893
• Population (ZIP): 10,893

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 41% Two or more races 19% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.03%
• Current HPI: 301.1413
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+94.1% since first listed

49 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $165,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-12 Listed $165,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-03 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-01 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-06-17 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2025-05-05 Listed $180,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-02-20 Listed $180,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-28 Sold (MLS) $145,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-06-20 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2023-06-12 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-06-08 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2023-06-08 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-05-25 Listed $149,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-10 Sold (MLS) $85,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-03-04 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2023-02-28 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-02-27 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2023-02-22 Price Changed $85,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-02-19 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-02-15 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2023-02-14 Price Changed $95,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-02-07 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-01-12 Price Changed $105,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-12-12 Price Changed $122,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-11-05 Price Changed $129,900 MLSSAZ
• 2022-09-20 Price Changed $139,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-09-08 Listed $150,000 MLSSAZ
• 2018-07-27 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2018-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records
• 2018-07-27 Sold (MLS) $17,500 MLSSAZ
• 2018-07-20 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2018-06-12 Price Changed $25,900 MLSSAZ
• 2018-05-03 Price Changed $29,000 MLSSAZ
• 2018-04-11 Listed $33,000 MLSSAZ
• 2016-02-22 Sold (MLS) $24,000 MLSSAZ
• 2016-02-06 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2015-09-24 Price Changed $29,900 MLSSAZ
• 2015-03-06 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2015-02-27 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2015-02-16 Listed $35,000 MLSSAZ
• 2010-01-17 Sold (MLS) $24,000 MLSSAZ
• 2009-12-10 Listed $19,900 MLSSAZ
• 2002-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2002-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2002-01-02 Sold (MLS) $77,000 MLSSAZ
• 2001-11-05 Listed $85,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

-5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $573 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.